Kazakhstan’s Rapeseed Export Surge Rewrites the Global Balance

Kazakhstan’s rapeseed export campaign is on track for a record year, tightening the global balance just as Canadian output is set to fall and EU biodiesel demand stays firm. For European crushers and biofuel producers, Kazakhstan is rapidly becoming a strategic alternative origin, especially as Canadian and Australian availability looks increasingly constrained. In the first seven months of 2025–26, Kazakhstan has already shipped 173,000 tonnes of rapeseed, 40% more than in the entire previous season, and has achieved over 82% of its full‑season export target by early May. The striking diversification of buyers, from Russia and Poland to new markets like China, Denmark, Iran and Afghanistan, is reducing dependence on any single destination. Against a backdrop of steady Euronext futures, firmer biodiesel margins, and slightly softer EU import volumes, this expansion positions Kazakhstan as a key marginal supplier in the coming months.

Prices & Spreads

Spot physical indications in Europe are modestly firmer in early May. In France, FOB Paris rapeseed is quoted around EUR 0.60/kg (EUR 600/t), up from about EUR 0.57/kg (EUR 570/t) in late April, while Ukrainian FCA offers in Odesa and Kyiv are hovering near EUR 0.61–0.62/kg (EUR 610–620/t), reflecting tight Black Sea availability and logistics costs.

On Euronext, nearby rapeseed futures have been broadly steady, with August 2026 around EUR 525–530/t and November 2026 at a small carry, signaling a relatively balanced nearby picture but expectations of more comfortable supplies further out as indicated by discounted 2027–28 contracts. Still, firm energy prices and supportive biodiesel margins have recently underpinned the vegetable oil complex.

Supply & Demand Shifts

Kazakhstan’s export campaign is the standout driver on the supply side. Shipments of 173,000 tonnes in the first seven months of 2025–26 already exceed last season’s full‑year exports by roughly 40%, and the country has achieved 82.5% of its 210,000‑tonne export target by early May. Russia is the top buyer with about 60,600 tonnes (around 35% of exports), more than doubling last year’s pace, while Poland ranks third with 19,700 tonnes, up 11% year on year.

The most transformational change, however, is China’s entry as a scale buyer: purchases have jumped nearly 82‑fold year on year to 32,600 tonnes, underlining Beijing’s desire to diversify its oilseed import base away from traditional suppliers. New markets such as Denmark (2,000 tonnes), Iran (2,700 tonnes) and Afghanistan (1,700 tonnes) further broaden Kazakhstan’s demand base and reduce its vulnerability to any single political or commercial relationship.

This export success comes despite weaker demand from some traditional European customers. France has reduced its purchases from 5,000 tonnes last season to zero this year, likely due to diplomatic frictions rather than price competitiveness, while Estonia and Latvia have cut intake by 17% and 43.5% respectively. These gaps are increasingly being filled by other European and Asian buyers, supported by improving logistics via Kazakhstan’s Black Sea and Caspian corridors.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Globally, rapeseed fundamentals are tightening at the margin. Canada, the world’s largest canola exporter and Kazakhstan’s key competitor, is projecting a 10% output decline in 2026–27 to about 36.2 million tonnes from 39.9 million tonnes as farmers rotate area into soybeans and other higher‑margin crops in Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. This directly lifts the relative importance of secondary origins such as Kazakhstan for both Europe and Asia.

In the EU, imports of rapeseed so far in the 2025–26 season are down sharply, by roughly 29% year on year by early May, reflecting a mix of decent domestic crops and reduced arrivals from overseas exporters. At the same time, the biofuel policy backdrop remains price‑supportive: higher greenhouse‑gas reduction and biofuel targets under RED III and firm crude oil prices have improved biodiesel margins, sustaining demand for rapeseed oil in particular.

Vegetable oil markets more broadly are underpinned by strong biofuel demand and elevated energy markets, with palm oil currently at the upper end of the vegetable‑oil price range and European biodiesel barge prices recently rising as gasoil futures dipped. This environment supports the competitiveness of rapeseed in crush margins, especially given its favorable cold‑flow properties in biodiesel blends compared with some competing oils.

Weather & Logistics Outlook

Weather conditions in Kazakhstan’s key grain and oilseed regions into May have been mixed but generally within normal ranges, with some local reports highlighting drier patches that primarily affect wheat and barley rather than established rapeseed export flows. For the near term, the main constraint on Kazakhstan’s rapeseed exports is more logistical than agronomic: capacity and reliability of Black Sea and Caspian routes, and any escalation of regional instability that could disrupt transit.

For European crushers, freight and insurance costs from Kazakhstan remain higher and more complex than from intra‑EU or Canadian suppliers, but the country’s improving infrastructure and proven performance this season are gradually narrowing this gap. With Canada facing a smaller crop and EU imports lagging, Kazakhstan’s ability to sustain and expand flows over the next 4–6 weeks will be closely monitored by buyers seeking to diversify origin risk.

Market & Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 4–6 weeks): EU rapeseed prices are likely to stay underpinned by firm biodiesel demand and constrained imports, with Kazakhstan’s continuing export pace limiting, but not eliminating, upside risk. Nearby Euronext values are expected to trade broadly sideways within the current EUR 510–540/t range unless weather or geopolitical shocks emerge.
• Medium term (into 2026–27): The projected 10% decline in Canadian canola output and ongoing biofuel‑driven vegetable oil demand point to a structurally tighter forward balance, even as futures curves currently price some easing beyond 2027–28. This increases the strategic value of establishing and maintaining supply relationships with Kazakhstan.

Strategy Pointers

• EU crushers and biodiesel producers: Consider layering additional forward coverage for Q3–Q4 2026 while futures remain range‑bound, with a focus on flexible origin optionality that includes Kazakhstan alongside EU and Canadian supply.
• Importers in Central and Eastern Europe: Explore long‑term contracts or framework agreements with Kazakh exporters to secure volumes before CanadIan production cuts tighten global availability and freight spreads potentially widen.
• Producers in Kazakhstan: Use the current high‑visibility export season to lock in multi‑year logistics and marketing arrangements via Black Sea and Caspian corridors, hedging price risk via Euronext where feasible to stabilize margins.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• Euronext rapeseed futures (nearby): Slightly firm to sideways; bias for consolidation around EUR 520–535/t as energy and biodiesel markets remain supportive.
• FOB France (physical): Stable to marginally firmer around EUR 600/t, with limited downside unless import flows from Black Sea or Canada surprise to the upside.
• Black Sea FCA (Ukraine as proxy): Stable in the EUR 610–620/t band, with upside risk if logistics tighten or if Kazakhstan diverts more volumes eastward toward China.