Georgian Hazelnuts Hold Firm Premium While Turkish Kernels Ease Slightly

Georgian hazelnut kernel prices in Warsaw are broadly steady at elevated levels, with only marginal easing in small calibres, while Turkish FOB values have edged slightly lower amid soft export demand. The price gap between Georgian and Turkish origins remains significant, reflecting quality perception and tighter nearby availability from Georgia. European buyers are currently well covered and remain price‑sensitive after a season of historically high nut and cocoa costs, which limits upside despite structurally tight global hazelnut fundamentals. Turkish exporters are competing aggressively on price, while Georgian suppliers benefit from a quality premium into Central Europe and stable crop expectations. In this environment, near‑term price action is likely to be sideways with a mild downward bias for larger sizes, unless new weather issues emerge in key Black Sea orchards.

Prices & Differentials

All prices approximate, expressed in EUR/kg.

*Indicative range derived from latest Turkish free‑market in‑shell and kernel quotes, converted to EUR/kg and adjusted to FOB parity.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Recent industry data confirm that world hazelnut supply in 2025/26 remains tight by historical standards, with global production around 1.08 million tonnes versus consumption exceeding 1.2 million tonnes. Turkey still dominates with roughly half of global output, but its 2025/26 crop is significantly smaller than the previous season, reducing exportable surplus.

Turkey nonetheless posted record hazelnut export revenue close to USD 1 billion in the first four months of the season, supported by high unit prices even as volumes were constrained. At the same time, earlier‑season figures from the Black Sea exporters’ union showed sharp year‑on‑year declines in export tonnage, highlighting how high prices and softer confectionery demand are curbing throughput.

Georgia’s role continues to grow: recent sector analyses show hazelnuts accounting for a meaningful share of the country’s agricultural export income, with stable medium‑term production expectations around 45,000 tonnes. European buyers increasingly accept Georgian kernels as an alternative origin, paying a premium for quality and traceability versus Turkish supply. Spot reports in May still describe Georgian 11–13 mm above EUR 10.70/kg and 13–15 mm around EUR 11.30/kg CIF/CFR Europe, broadly consistent with the current FCA Warsaw quotes.

Weather & Crop Outlook – Georgia Focus

For the coming days (May 20–22), key hazelnut regions in western Georgia (Samegrelo, Guria, Adjara) face a typical late‑spring pattern with mild temperatures and scattered showers. Short‑range forecasts point to daytime highs mostly between 18–23°C with intermittent rain and no significant frost or heat extremes, conditions that are broadly supportive for orchard development at this stage of the season.

So far, there are no credible reports of major weather‑related damage to Georgian orchards in May, and agribusiness analyses continue to assume a roughly average 2026/27 crop after several years of structural rehabilitation and improved disease control. By contrast, recent commentary on Turkey highlights only an “average” crop potential with earlier blossom stress in some Black Sea areas, limiting expectations for a significant loosening of the global balance.

Fundamentals & Demand Drivers

Kernel prices across Europe remain high in a multi‑year context, but the sharp run‑up earlier in the season has stalled. Merchants report that high cocoa and nut prices together have forced confectioners to reformulate and hedge more cautiously, keeping nearby physical demand subdued even as long‑term usage remains intact. Retail data from several Central and Eastern European markets show stable consumer prices for hazelnut‑based spreads and chocolate, suggesting that much of the cost inflation has already been passed through.

In Turkey, inflation and rising labour and energy costs continue to squeeze processors’ margins, but government‑backed support prices and export credits encourage continued aggressive participation in export markets. Meanwhile, high farm‑gate prices and supportive agribusiness investment in Georgia underpin grower economics, sustaining orchard rehabilitation and quality upgrades rather than prompting large short‑term supply surges. Overall, fundamentals point to a still‑tight but not worsening market, consistent with today’s stable‑to‑slightly‑easier spot prices.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• Buyers (EU industry, roasters): Consider staggered cover on Georgian kernels at current levels, focusing on 11–13 mm where small corrections have appeared. The structural premium vs Turkish origin remains justified by quality and supply security, but near‑term upside looks limited without new weather shocks.
• Turkish origin users: FOB Turkey offers a noticeable discount to Georgian FCA Central Europe. Price‑sensitive applications may lock in part of Q3–Q4 needs now, while leaving some volume open given only moderate bullish drivers.
• Growers and local traders in Georgia: With international benchmarks holding firm, avoid heavy forward selling at additional discounts. Monitor Turkish crop news and Black Sea exporters’ updates closely, as any downgrade in Turkey’s crop could quickly re‑ignite upside in premiums for high‑quality Georgian kernels.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR, Directional)

• Georgia → Warsaw FCA kernels 11–13 mm: ~9.80–10.00 EUR/kg, bias: sideways to slightly softer as liquidity is thin but no new bullish impulses are visible.
• Georgia → Warsaw FCA kernels 13–15 mm: ~10.80–11.00 EUR/kg, bias: sideways; buyers show resistance above 11 EUR/kg yet supply is limited.
• Georgia → Warsaw FCA kernels 15+ mm: ~11.10–11.30 EUR/kg, bias: sideways to slightly softer, given narrow premium over 13–15 mm and selective demand in large sizes.