Indian Cardamom Firms as Demand Outpaces Early Monsoon Supply

Indian cardamom prices are firm to slightly higher, with mid-grade Delhi FCA offers up around 6–10% since late April, supported by strong export interest and tightening pre-monsoon supplies. The market is transitioning into the southwest monsoon period, with Kerala’s Idukki belt entering a wetter, cooler pattern that should support the next crop but temporarily constrain arrivals. At the same time, India’s latest trade data show cardamom exports surging in both volume and value in FY 2025–26, underlining robust international demand even as other spices soften. Combined, these factors are keeping physical differentials firm for higher grades, while futures and domestic spot markets signal steady-to-firm undertones ahead of heavier new-crop harvesting.

Prices & Spreads

New Delhi FCA prices for Indian green cardamom have moved higher over May, particularly for 7–7.5 mm grades, while FOB export quotes remain elevated but broadly stable in EUR terms. Recent exchange-traded cardamom contracts in India also show a modest uptick, reflecting improved buying interest into late May. Export statistics released this week confirm that cardamom has been one of the standout performers in India’s spice export basket, with export value more than doubling year-on-year, indicating strong price realisations in foreign markets.

Note: INR-denominated market and auction references have been converted approximately to EUR/kg for comparability, using current FX levels.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

On the demand side, the latest national export statistics show cardamom bucking the broader spice export slowdown. Overall Indian spice exports fell by about 5% in FY 2025–26, but cardamom exports more than doubled in value to around US$449 million, with volumes up over 100%, underscoring vigorous buying from the Middle East, Europe and North America. Fresh export enquiries and offers from Indian suppliers to global buyers continue to appear in trade channels, indicating ongoing appetite for Indian-origin green cardamom.

On the supply side, small cardamom auctions in Kerala earlier in May registered high participation and firm average prices above INR 2,600/kg, with occasional peaks beyond INR 3,600/kg at select centres, pointing to tight near-term availability of top grades. Even though these auction data are slightly older than three days, the latest export and weather signals suggest no major easing in supply pressure into late May. The combination of strong exports and measured grower selling is keeping spot markets underpinned.

Weather in Key Growing Regions (India)

Idukki in Kerala, India’s core small cardamom region, is now in a typical late-May pre-monsoon to early-monsoon pattern: daytime highs around 30–32°C and nighttime lows in the low-to-mid 20s, with frequent showers and high humidity. Over the next three days (24–26 May 2026), forecasts point to intermittent rainfall but no severe weather or heatwaves, conditions that are broadly favourable for plant health and soil moisture.

For the market, this means no immediate weather-driven threat to the upcoming crop, but the onset of wetter conditions can temporarily disrupt harvesting and transport in hilly estates. As a result, arrivals into auctions and primary markets may remain somewhat constrained in the very near term, supporting a firm price tone until more consistent new-season flow appears.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

• Exports: Cardamom stands out within India’s spice complex, with FY 2025–26 exports surging in both volume and value, highlighting strong structural demand even as some other spices like chilli and cumin face weaker shipments.
• Domestic use: Steady consumption in Indian food, confectionery and beverage segments continues to underpin baseline demand, while manufacturers benefit from relatively stable year-on-year prices in rupee terms compared with the extreme volatility seen in other spices.
• Weather: Current forecasts for Kerala indicate supportive moisture without extremes, reducing immediate crop risk but not yet triggering a heavy influx of fresh arrivals.
• Sentiment: Trade commentary and recent contract activity suggest a “firm but not overheated” market, with buyers showing willingness to pay up for higher grades while still price-sensitive on lower counts and powder.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Importers / Industrial buyers: Consider covering near-term needs for 7–8 mm grades on dips, as export demand and only modestly improving arrivals are likely to keep these segments firm. Stagger purchases rather than front-loading, given the absence of acute weather risk.
• Exporters: With strong global demand and favourable EUR realisations, maintain offers for premium Indian-origin green cardamom but be flexible on smaller sizes to stimulate volume. Lock in margins where possible via forward sales to key GCC and European buyers.
• Domestic traders: The immediate price bias is mildly upward to sideways. Avoid aggressive short positions until clearer signs of larger new-crop arrivals or a pullback in export enquiries emerge.

3-Day Price Direction (Region: IN)

• New Delhi physical, FCA (all grades): Bias: steady to slightly firmer over 24–26 May, supported by robust export pull and only gradually improving supply.
• Indian export quotes, FOB (premium grades): Bias: steady in EUR terms; limited downside as long as international demand and freight conditions remain stable.
• Indian futures / reference mandis: Bias: range-bound with firm undertone, tracking auction indications and early-monsoon weather news flow.