ICE No.11 Sugar Rebounds Along the Forward Curve Despite Multi‑Year Lows

Nearby ICE No.11 sugar futures are trading close to five‑year lows, but the forward curve is gently firming, signaling modestly improved price expectations into 2027–2029. The market is still weighed by ample global supplies and weaker energy prices, yet incremental gains along the curve suggest downside may be increasingly limited.

Raw sugar has slipped into a low-price environment on the back of surplus expectations, strong production in key origins and soft demand from the ethanol side. Nonetheless, recent sessions show better buying interest in deferred contracts, with growing open interest and slightly higher closes out to 2029, indicating that market participants anticipate a gradual tightening or, at least, a floor forming at current levels.

📈 Prices & Forward Curve

The ICE No.11 board on 21 April 2026 shows a flat-to-firmer forward structure. The May 2026 contract settled at 13.43 US¢/lb (‑0.30% on the day), while July 2026 closed higher at 13.72 US¢/lb. Further out, October 2026 finished at 14.15 US¢/lb and March 2027 at 14.93 US¢/lb, with contracts through March 2029 climbing steadily toward 16.26 US¢/lb by the end of the curve.

A Reuters snapshot confirms that nearby raw sugar is stabilizing just above recent five‑year lows, with white sugar around USD 419.7/t, underlining the pressure from ample supply and soft energy markets. Estimated daily volume around 150–160k lots and rising open interest above 960k lots signal healthy liquidity and renewed participation at these lower price levels.

Contract	Settlement (US¢/lb)	Approx. Price (EUR/t)*	Daily Change
May 2026	13.43	≈ 275 EUR/t	‑0.04
Jul 2026	13.72	≈ 281 EUR/t	+0.08
Oct 2026	14.15	≈ 290 EUR/t	+0.13
Mar 2027	14.93	≈ 306 EUR/t	+0.15
Mar 2029	16.26	≈ 333 EUR/t	+0.03

*Indicative conversion to EUR/t assuming ~1.10 USD/EUR and 1 US¢/lb ≈ 22.05 USD/t.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

The dominant macro driver is a persistent global surplus narrative. Recent analysis points to stronger‑than‑expected Indian production in 2025/26—up about 9% year‑on‑year by late March—which keeps export availability higher than previously feared and weighs on world prices. In parallel, a recovery in Thai and other Asian crops, plus resilient Brazilian output, adds to the perception of comfortable near‑term supply.

On the demand side, weaker crude oil prices and a subdued ethanol complex reduce the incentive for Brazilian mills to divert cane away from sugar, reinforcing supply at the exchange. At the same time, large speculative length that built up when sugar rallied with energy earlier in the season has been partially unwound, contributing to the recent price slide but also cleaning up positioning and setting the stage for more balanced trade.

📊 Fundamentals & Regional Signals

In Brazil, the new Center‑South harvest is entering its drier seasonal window. Current outlooks indicate largely favorable weather in São Paulo and neighboring cane areas, with typical dry conditions for the crush that support high sucrose content (ATR) and efficient harvesting. While there are medium‑term discussions about higher diversion of cane to ethanol if crude recovers, this is more a 2026/27–2027/28 story than an immediate constraint.

In the refined sugar segment, Brazilian FOB São Paulo offers for ICUMSA 45 have been hovering around 0.53 EUR/kg (≈ 530 EUR/t) in recent months, reflecting a substantial premium over raw futures but still under pressure from the global surplus backdrop. The moderate firming of the ICE No.11 forward curve suggests that physical premiums could stabilize rather than expand sharply, assuming no major weather or policy shock.

European market signals remain mixed. While global benchmarks are near multi‑year lows, selected EU producers continue to report margin pressure and, in some cases, losses in the sugar segment due to relatively higher local costs and regulatory burdens, even as world prices soften.

🌦️ Weather Outlook (Key Cane Regions)

• Center‑South Brazil (including São Paulo): Entering the traditional dry season from April onward, conditions currently favor harvest progress and sugar accumulation in cane. No immediate large‑scale weather threat is visible in the very short term for cane fields.
• India & Thailand: Attention is gradually shifting toward the upcoming monsoon onset, but for the next few days, no acute weather shock is emerging that would materially change the 2025/26 surplus narrative.

Given this backdrop, weather in the next three months will be more critical for shaping 2026/27 expectations than for the current surplus-driven price structure.

📆 Trading & Risk Outlook

• Producers (Brazil, India, Thailand): The gently upward‑sloping ICE No.11 curve out to 2029 offers opportunities to layer in hedges on rallies, particularly in the 2027–2029 contracts where prices approach the mid‑16 US¢/lb range (≈ 330+ EUR/t). This can lock in margins while the surplus narrative still dominates.
• Industrial buyers & refiners: With nearby prices close to five‑year lows and a firmer forward curve, selectively extending coverage into late‑2026 and 2027 appears attractive. Focus on using price dips in front‑month and nearby contracts to secure physical supply, while avoiding over‑hedging far forward in case a deeper surplus persists.
• Traders & funds: Market structure and positioning argue against aggressive fresh shorts at these levels. A more balanced approach—selling rallies toward the upper end of the recent range while maintaining optionality for weather or energy‑driven spikes—appears prudent.

📉 3‑Day Directional Outlook (in EUR Terms)

• ICE No.11 (front month, May 2026): Sideways to slightly firmer, with the bulk of trade expected in a narrow band around the equivalent of 270–285 EUR/t as the market digests surplus data but also recognizes value at multi‑year lows.
• ICE No.11 deferred (Oct 2026–Mar 2027): Mildly supportive bias, reflecting continued interest in forward hedging and a modest risk premium for future weather and policy uncertainty.
• Refined benchmarks (Brazil FOB, EU white sugar): Stable to marginally softer in EUR, tracking raw sugar and energy, though regional logistical or policy moves could cause short‑term basis volatility.