ICE Raw Sugar Steady Above 18 c/lb as Forward Curve Softens

Raw sugar futures are holding a relatively stable range around 18–19 US‑cents/lb, with only marginal daily moves and a gently declining curve beyond 2027, pointing to a market that is balanced in the near term but expecting more comfortable supplies further out. After recent volatility, the ICE Sugar No.11 board shows a consolidation phase. Front contracts (October 2026–March 2027) are clustered just above 18 c/lb, while outer positions towards 2028–2029 trade closer to 17 c/lb, signalling expectations of easing fundamentals over the medium term. Volumes remain strongest in the nearby months, confirming that price discovery is concentrated in the 2026/27 season. For cane and refined sugar market participants, this implies stable pricing for prompt demand but increasing pressure on longer‑term differentials and margins.

Prices

The October 2026 ICE No.11 contract last settled at 18.07 c/lb, unchanged on the day after trading a 17.92–18.48 c/lb range. March 2027 closed at 19.05 c/lb, up a marginal 0.01 c/lb (+0.05%), while May 2027 ended at 18.44 c/lb, flat on the session. Further along the curve, July and October 2027 are near 18.06–18.08 c/lb, and March 2028 is around 18.41 c/lb.

Beyond 2028, prices ease: May and July 2028 contracts are at roughly 17.72 and 17.35 c/lb, with October 2028 at 17.36 c/lb. March 2029 trades at 17.71 c/lb, and the thinly traded mid‑2029 positions slip to about 16.96 c/lb. This structure reflects only modest nearby risk premia and a soft contango into the late 2020s, consistent with expectations of gradually improving global sugar availability. Converting the front October 2026 level of 18.07 c/lb implies a raw sugar value in the area of 420–440 EUR/t, depending on freight and FX.

Supply & Demand

The flat day‑on‑day moves around the front ICE contracts and the mild backwardation into early 2027 suggest that current physical demand is well covered, with no acute shortage premium. At the same time, the forward discount into 2028–2029 implies market confidence that cane output in key origins and refined capacity will be sufficient to balance growth in global consumption.

Brazilian refined sugar offers (ICUMSA 45, FOB São Paulo) in late 2024 have been quoted around 0.51–0.53 EUR/kg, translating to roughly 510–530 EUR/t. This sits above the implied raw sugar parity from No.11, leaving room for refining margins and logistics while still appearing competitive against recent international benchmarks. The combination of stable futures and firm but not extreme physical offers underscores a broadly balanced global sugar cane complex.

Fundamentals & Weather

The concentration of volume in October 2026 and March 2027 contracts points to the 2026/27 season as the key focus for traders, with liquidity tapering off sharply beyond mid‑2028. This pattern is typical when the market is not facing a clear structural deficit or surplus signal further out, and instead prices in only modest risk of weather or policy shocks.

Recent daily assessments from international pricing indices place the ISA Daily Price in the high‑18 c/lb range for early September, aligned with the ICE front‑month settlement band. This convergence between exchange and index values confirms that futures are closely tracking realized physical market conditions. With no strong weather‑driven rally visible in the curve, the current structure suggests that crop conditions in major cane regions are, for now, perceived as broadly satisfactory.

Forecast & Trading Outlook

• Producers (farmers and mills): With Oct 2026–Mar 2027 trading around 18–19 c/lb, consider layering in additional hedges on price strength above 19 c/lb while keeping some upside open through options, given limited evidence of tightness but persistent demand growth.
• Industrial buyers/refiners: The gently softer curve into 2028–2029 argues for covering near‑term raws needs on dips, but avoiding over‑hedging far forward at current levels, as the market is signalling more comfortable supplies later in the decade.
• Traders/speculators: Range‑bound behaviour near 18 c/lb and only modest daily changes favour short‑term range and spread strategies (e.g. Oct 26 vs Mar 27), rather than strong directional bets, until a clearer fundamental catalyst emerges.

3‑day directional outlook (in EUR terms): Based on the current ICE board and recent international indices, we expect raw sugar values equivalent to roughly 420–450 EUR/t to remain in a narrow band over the next three trading sessions, with intraday volatility but no clear bias beyond a slight downside risk if weather and macro conditions stay benign.