ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices Under Pressure: Short-Term Declines, Long-Term Stability

ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices Under Pressure: Short-Term Declines, Long-Term Stability

ICE Sugar No. 5 prices continue to decline, particularly for short-term contracts in 2025. However, long-term contracts (2026-2027) show relative stability with minimal price movements and slight gains for some.

Summary of Price Movements (Closing Prices in EUR/t):

• March 2025: €429.09 (-€7.27, -1.69%)
• May 2025: €429.55 (-€6.30, -1.35%)
• August 2025: €421.45 (-€4.51, -1.07%)
• October 2025: €420.90 (-€3.51, -0.83%)
• December 2025: €424.86 (-€3.13, -0.74%)

Long-Term Contracts (2026-2027):

• March 2026: €430.65 (-€2.85, -0.66%)
• May 2026: €434.52 (-€1.75, -0.40%)
• August 2026: €437.28 (-€1.01, -0.23%)
• October 2026: €437.92 (-€0.92, -0.21%)
• December 2026: €439.48 (-€0.37, -0.08%)
• March 2027: €441.51 (-€0.37, -0.08%)
• May 2027: €439.76 (-€0.37, -0.08%)
• August 2027: €439.58 (+€0.28, +0.06%)
• October 2027: €438.93 (+€0.28, +0.06%)

Market Developments and Key Factors

1. Significant Declines for Short-Term Contracts:
   • Prices for 2025 contracts (March to December) recorded substantial losses, ranging from -0.74% to -1.69%, reflecting continued oversupply and weak demand.
2. Stabilization for Long-Term Contracts:
   • Losses are much smaller for the 2026-2027 delivery periods. Some contracts, such as August and October 2027, even show slight gains of +0.06%.
3. Trading Volume:
   • The highest trading volumes were recorded for short-term contracts:
     • March 2025: 10,773 units.
     • May 2025: 8,132 units.
   • Long-term contracts saw lower trading activity, indicating a more cautious stance among market participants.

Conclusion

ICE Sugar No. 5 prices remain under pressure, especially for short-term contracts in 2025. Long-term contracts exhibit relative stability, suggesting a cautious optimization of market dynamics. Market participants should closely monitor these developments and adjust their strategies accordingly. The sugar market remains volatile due to persistent price weakness and global uncertainties.

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