ICE Sugar Retreats Again – October Drops Below USD 472/t
On 25 July 2025, ICE White Sugar futures reversed the previous day’s gains, with the October 2025 contract falling by 1.95% to USD 471.00/t (EUR 431.78/t). The entire futures curve moved lower amid weak macro signals, bearish commodity sentiment, and a continued lack of physical follow-through. Refiners in the EU remain firm on prices, but buyers are increasingly hesitant.
📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Futures Closing Summary (25.07.2025)
Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
---|---|---|---|
Oct 25 | 471.00 | -1.95% | 431.78 |
Dec 25 | 462.80 | -1.79% | 424.21 |
Mar 26 | 465.90 | -1.40% | 426.84 |
May 26 | 467.40 | -1.13% | 428.25 |
Aug 26 | 467.30 | -0.96% | 428.16 |
Dec 26 | 472.40 | -0.68% | 432.93 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.917 EUR – ECB reference 25.07.2025)
🇪🇺 EU Spot Market – Refiners Holding Firm, Buyers Cautious
📦 Despite the drop in ICE futures, European physical offers remain unchanged:
- 🇵🇱 KSC (Poland): Spot offers still at €0.635/kg DDP, with some interest in Q4 volumes around €0.62.
- 🇩🇪 Südzucker & Nordzucker: Delivered prices holding firm at €0.70/kg DDP, but traders report slower buyer response.
- ⚠️ The premium to ICE is now approaching €0.27/kg, raising concerns about physical alignment.
🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 25.07.2025)
Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) |
---|---|---|
Germany | Kaufland | 0.69 € |
Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € |
Austria | Penny | 1.09 € |
France | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
Belgium | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € |
Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € |
Hungary | Lidl | 0.80 € |
🌍 Market Drivers
- 📉 Technical correction: failure to hold above USD 480/t triggered selling
- 🛢️ Broader commodity weakness: energy and softs under macro pressure
- 🇧🇷 Brazil’s harvest remains uninterrupted – exports flowing freely
- 🧊 Physical market stable – no sign of price softening from EU refiners
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Brazil: Conditions remain dry and stable; slight moisture deficits in central São Paulo
- India: Monsoon has normalised across all major cane areas
- Thailand: Growing conditions normal
- EU: Warm and dry – logistical networks functioning without interruption
📊 Price Comparison Table
Market | Price (EUR/kg) | Comment |
---|---|---|
ICE Futures (Oct) | 0.432 | Down nearly 2% – testing short-term support |
EU Spot FCA (PL) | 0.54–0.56 | Unchanged – no follow-through from ICE |
Retail Germany | 0.69 | Stable – consistent with supply chain logic |
Retail Poland | 0.42 | Remains lowest in the EU |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
📉 ICE White Sugar continues to trade in a wide and volatile range
📦 Physical prices remain insulated – but pressure is building on refiners
⚠️ Disconnect between ICE and DDP reaching critical levels
📌 Recommendations:
- Buyers:
→ Continue negotiating Q4 contracts under €0.63/kg
→ Avoid chasing DDP above €0.68 unless logistical urgency - Sellers:
→ Hold firm on existing offers – no need to react to futures volatility
→ Consider forward hedging Q1/Q2 2026 on any futures rebound - Traders:
→ Watch USD 468/t as key support for Oct contract
→ RSI and volume suggest a possible bounce if macro sentiment stabilises
📍 Summary:
Futures fell sharply on 25 July, erasing the previous day’s gains. The ICE market continues to trade out of sync with the EU physical space, where prices remain elevated and supported by limited refinery competition. Watch for signs of physical response or macro stabilisation next week.