India and Brazil Peanut Prices Ease Slightly as New Crop Pressure Builds

Peanut export prices from India and Brazil are edging slightly lower in late March, with modest week‑on‑week declines in both birdfeed and bold/raw segments. Ample near‑term supply, normal weather in key growing regions and cautious overseas demand keep the market mildly bearish, though quality lots still command a small premium.

Indian bold and Java peanut offers from New Delhi and Gujarat are showing a gentle softening after prior gains, while Brazilian raw peanut values are easing from recent highs as harvest‑time oilseed supply and broader export headwinds weigh on sentiment. Weather in both regions is currently non‑threatening for the next few days, limiting any immediate weather‑risk premium in prices. Buyers retain the upper hand in spot and nearby positions, but lower levels are starting to attract selective forward coverage by importers.

📈 Prices & Recent Moves

All prices below are approximate and converted to EUR/ton (spot export, late March 2026):

Origin	Type	Location / Term	Latest Price (EUR/t)	1‑week Δ
India (IN)	Roasted splits 60/70/80	New Delhi, FOB	~€1,110	Flat vs mid‑March
India (IN)	Birdfeed	New Delhi, CFR	~€970	≈‑2% w/w
India (IN)	Bold 40/50–60/70	Gujarat & New Delhi, FOB	~€920–930	≈‑1% w/w
India (IN)	Java 50/60–70/80	New Delhi, FOB	~€1,180–1,190	Stable w/w
Brazil (BR)	Raw	Brasília, FOB	~€1,130	≈‑1% w/w

The mild downtrend reflects comfortable domestic supplies and limited fresh buying interest from major importers. Broader oilseed markets are also under pressure amid record South American soybean harvests and logistics bottlenecks that are weighing on export basis levels across crops, indirectly capping upside in peanuts as well.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

In India, the current marketing year started with solid groundnut output after expanded plantings and generally favorable monsoon conditions in key peanut states such as Gujarat and Rajasthan. Recent official projections continue to show year‑on‑year gains for groundnut production, helping maintain export availability despite firm domestic consumption.

Export demand from the EU and Middle East for edible grades remains steady but not aggressive, with some buyers still covered for nearby months after earlier purchases. At the same time, price‑sensitive markets in Southeast Asia are resisting higher offers and switching volumes among origins, encouraging Indian sellers to trim bids for birdfeed and lower grades to stay competitive.

Brazil remains a key global supplier of raw kernels, especially into Europe, with São Paulo state dominating production. Although the latest detailed peanut export statistics precede this week, the broader oilseed export environment is clearly stressed: record soybean flows and congestion at ports and river terminals have slowed loadings and created temporary “no bid” situations in related crops. This is nudging some peanut sellers to price more competitively to keep product moving.

⛅ Weather Outlook (BR & IN)

India (Gujarat & major groundnut belt): The next 3–7 days are forecast to remain mostly dry and seasonally warm across western India, including Gujarat and Rajasthan. No widespread heavy rainfall or extreme heat events are indicated that would materially affect standing crops or late harvesting activities in the short term.

Brazil (São Paulo / Southeast peanut belt): Short‑range forecasts for São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Paraná point to typical late‑summer conditions with scattered showers and near‑normal temperatures. While light to moderate rain could briefly disrupt field operations in some areas, there is no sign of a major weather shock capable of significantly tightening supply in the coming days.

With benign weather in both India and Brazil, the market currently assigns little weather premium to prices. Any support from weather is more likely to emerge later if abnormal patterns develop ahead of the next planting windows.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Drivers

• Production backdrop: Higher Indian groundnut output year‑on‑year and stable to strong Brazilian supplies underpin a fundamentally well‑supplied export market, particularly for bold and raw kernels.
• Competing oilseeds: Record or near‑record soybean harvests in Brazil are depressing crush margins and basis levels, indirectly pressuring peanuts as crushers and exporters manage overall oilseed exposure.
• Logistics & ports: Reports of truck backlogs and sporadic “no bid” episodes in Brazil’s grain export pipeline highlight ongoing logistical strains. These issues can temporarily dampen export offers but also create localized discounts as sellers seek liquidity.
• Demand tone: Snack and confectionery demand in destination markets is steady but not booming, keeping buyers price‑sensitive and inclined to book only incremental coverage on dips rather than chase the market higher.

🧭 Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Importers (EU, Middle East, Asia): Use the current mild softness in Indian birdfeed and bold grades, as well as slightly cheaper Brazilian raw offers, to secure partial Q2–Q3 coverage. Prioritize high‑quality lots while basis is under pressure.
• Indian exporters: With local supplies comfortable and weather benign, maintain competitive FOB offers to defend market share, especially in price‑sensitive birdfeed and smaller counts. Consider locking in forward sales on any short‑term rallies.
• Brazilian shippers: Monitor port congestion and freight closely; where logistics allow, targeted discounts could unlock delayed demand, but avoid over‑committing volumes until shipping slots are secured.

📆 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• India (New Delhi & Gujarat, FOB): Sideways to slightly softer (‑€5–10/t) for bold and birdfeed grades as sellers compete for limited new inquiries; Java expected broadly stable given tighter availability of larger counts.
• Brazil (raw peanuts, FOB main ports): Slight downward bias (‑€5–15/t) amid ongoing oilseed export pressures and logistics noise, but any sharper fall likely to be met by opportunistic buying from European and Asian importers.