India’s Bajra Crop Rebounds as Feed Demand Lifts Global Millet Complex

India’s new bajra (pearl millet) crop is arriving into a surprisingly firm domestic market, supported by high maize and oilseed cake prices that keep bajra competitive in feed rations. Despite a significantly larger 2026 harvest, prices have rebounded after an initial dip and are expected to soften only moderately as arrivals peak. Indian market resilience is echoed by stable to slightly higher export quotations for yellow millet from China and Ukraine, signaling a broadly supported global millet complex. With India’s bajra output pegged well above last year and feed demand underpinned by elevated maize values, buyers are actively covering nearby needs while watching for a potential seasonal pullback. Over the coming weeks, increased supplies from northern and eastern Indian states are likely to cap further rallies but may not trigger a deep correction unless feedgrain prices ease more decisively.

Prices

New-season bajra in key producing states of Haryana and Rajasthan initially traded around ₹2,080–2,100/quintal but has already rebounded to approximately ₹2,150–2,160/quintal as stockists stepped in early. This recovery comes despite the start of harvest pressure, underlining how costly maize and oilseed cakes are supporting relative bajra values.

In parallel, export-oriented millet quotations remain firm. Latest offers show Chinese hulled yellow millet kernels in Beijing at EUR 0.88–0.98 FOB, depending on purity and organic status, while Ukrainian yellow millet from Odesa is indicated around EUR 0.61 FCA for conventional kernels and EUR 1.20 FCA for organic kernels. Inshell millet seeds from Ukraine are quoted broadly steady around EUR 0.33–0.34 FCA, with hulled yellow seeds around EUR 0.272 FOB.

Supply & Demand

India’s 2026 bajra crop is estimated around 16 million tonnes, sharply above last year’s roughly 12–12.5 million tonnes thanks to better yields and crop quality. This step-up comes on top of structurally growing coarse grain demand, particularly for feed and industrial uses alongside rice and wheat.

Despite the bigger crop, buying has been front-loaded. Stockists have entered the market earlier than usual, anticipating strong demand from feed compounders reacting to elevated maize values and expensive mustard and cottonseed cakes. Additional supplies from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh are expected to flow into markets from October, progressively easing near-term tightness and widening origin choices for domestic buyers.

Fundamentals & Cross-Market Drivers

The key bullish driver is relative pricing versus competing feed ingredients. Maize mandi prices across India are holding at elevated levels, while oilseed cakes such as mustard and cottonseed remain costly, improving bajra’s attractiveness as an energy and protein source in feed rations. This cross-market support explains why bajra rebounded quickly from its harvest lows instead of following a typical sharp new-crop dip.

On the bearish side, the sheer scale of India’s 2026 bajra harvest and the expected wave of arrivals over the next 4–6 weeks will gradually shift the balance toward ample supply. The local press already anticipates that, even with firm feed demand, prices may slip by roughly another ₹100/quintal during the current month as harvesting expands and logistics normalize.

Short-Term Outlook

In India, bajra prices are likely to trade in a sideways-to-softening band through late September and October. The market should remain underpinned by strong feed demand as long as maize and oilseed cake values stay high, but growing arrivals from northern and eastern states will cap rallies and gradually erode the recent recovery.

Internationally, Chinese and Ukrainian millet offers look broadly stable, with a mild firming bias observable in Ukrainian FOB seed values. Unless India shifts from net importer to notable exporter in the very short term, the global millet balance should remain comfortable, with regional tightness mainly dictated by logistics and quality differentials rather than outright scarcity.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Key Regions)

For the immediate outlook, weather is less of a primary driver as much of India’s bajra harvest is already underway or nearing completion. Monsoon performance to date has been sufficient to underpin the larger 2026 crop estimate, and near-term forecasts mainly influence harvest pace and quality rather than yields at this stage.

Trading Recommendations

• Feed buyers in India: Use current harvest-time liquidity to extend nearby coverage, but stagger purchases through October to capture any additional ₹100/quintal downside as arrivals peak.
• Export buyers in the Middle East and Asia: Monitor Indian bajra price moves as a potential alternative origin for feed use, while keeping a base program with China and Ukraine where FOB quotations are stable.
• Producers and stockists: Consider incremental selling on rallies above current mandi levels, given the large 2026 crop, but avoid aggressive forward sales in case maize or oilseed cake prices spike further and pull bajra higher.

3-Day Directional Outlook

• India (bajra mandis): Mostly stable with a mild downward bias as harvest progresses and more markets report new-crop arrivals.
• China FOB Beijing (yellow millet kernels): Steady tone; no major change expected over the next three days amid balanced domestic and export demand.
• Ukraine (Odesa FCA/FOB millet): Largely flat, with minor firming possible on logistics and freight, but no significant move in underlying millet valuations anticipated in the very short term.