India’s Lentil Buyers Face Firm Prices as Import Costs Stay Elevated

India’s lentil market remains firmly supported, with a structural production deficit and elevated import costs preventing any meaningful price correction in the near term. Lentil prices in India are holding at comparatively high levels as domestic production remains below consumption needs and imports from Canada and Australia arrive at a relatively expensive landed cost. Mill demand is steady but cautious, with processors and traders limiting inventories, while stockholders release supplies only gradually. Internationally, Canada faces mixed crop conditions and slightly reduced lentil area, while Australia is heading for another large crop. This combination keeps India dependent on external supplies, but without generating clear downward pressure on prices.

Prices

Domestic lentil prices in India are firm. In Delhi, lentils are quoted around $71.44–$71.96 per quintal, while imported parcels at major ports trade near $62.64–$63.16 per quintal, implying a clear premium for inland domestic product supported by quality and logistics constraints.

Limited availability of superior-quality domestic lots enables these to command additional premiums over imported material. On the international side, FOB prices for Canadian lentils have been broadly stable in recent weeks, with red football types around EUR 2.30/kg and large green Laird near EUR 1.40/kg, while Eston greens are close to EUR 1.35/kg, indicating no sharp external relief for Indian buyers.

Supply & Demand

India’s domestic lentil production is structurally below internal demand, forcing sustained reliance on imports. This production-consumption gap remains the key bullish pillar, as even normal import flows only partially offset the shortfall and leave little cushion in case of disruption.

Shipments from Canada and Australia continue to supplement Indian supplies. However, currency movements, elevated freight costs and relatively high international prices keep import parity firm, limiting the scope for any substantial decline in Indian wholesale quotations. Port arrivals can temporarily ease spot tightness, but are unlikely to alter the broader picture of dependence on external origins.

On the demand side, pulse mills maintain regular crushing activity and therefore provide a consistent base of offtake. At the same time, both millers and traders are cautious at current price levels, largely purchasing against immediate requirements rather than aggressively building stocks, which moderates trading volumes but does not weaken the underlying floor created by the supply deficit.

Fundamentals & Global Context

Stockholders in India are releasing lentil inventories gradually instead of offering large volumes, which adds another layer of support to prices. The restricted flow of stocks into the pipeline, combined with limited high-quality domestic supply, has allowed selective lots to fetch notable premiums over imported lentils.

In Canada, where nearly 90% of that country’s lentils are grown, seeded area for 2026 has fallen by roughly 12% year on year, while recent provincial reports point to mixed crop conditions amid episodes of excess moisture and disease risk in pulses, including lentils. Although overall ratings remain mostly good to fair, the reduced area and agronomic challenges suggest limited room for a major export surplus expansion.

Australia, by contrast, is on track for another very large lentil harvest, with forecasts pointing to a record crop near 2.2 million tonnes, largely geared towards export markets such as India and Bangladesh. While this ample Australian supply is a key bearish counterweight, logistics, freight, and pricing strategies will determine how far it can actually pressure Indian landed costs in the coming months.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather conditions in Canada’s Prairies are currently variable. Saskatchewan crop reports highlight generally adequate moisture but also note some deterioration in lentil condition ratings due to disease pressure and uneven fields following heavy rainfall and storms. A medium to high risk of lentil anthracnose has been flagged across much of the province, which could curb yield potential if wet conditions persist.

In Australia, lentil crops are progressing under seasonally favorable conditions in key producing states, underpinning expectations for a record harvest. Any significant weather shock there—especially prolonged dryness or late frost—would quickly alter the outlook for Indian import parity, but for now the risk profile appears balanced to moderately supportive of supply.

Short-Term Market Outlook & Trading Ideas

Near-term price risks in India remain skewed to the upside as long as domestic production lags demand and import costs stay firm. However, the scale of any further rally is constrained by buyer resistance at current levels and the prospect of ample Australian supply.

• Millers in India: Consider maintaining coverage on a rolling, short-term basis rather than waiting for a major correction that may not materialize, especially for higher-quality lots where premiums are entrenched.
• Importers: Monitor Canadian crop progress and Australian export pricing closely; selective forward purchases may be justified if freight or currency risks point to higher import parity later in the season.
• Producers/exporters in Canada and Australia: Given firm Indian demand but buyer caution, structured offers (smaller parcels, staggered shipments) could help secure business without aggressive price cuts.

3-Day Directional Outlook (EUR terms)

• India, Delhi wholesale: Sideways to slightly higher; firm undertone as mills maintain steady buying and stockholders sell slowly.
• India, port-imported lentils: Mostly stable; minor softness possible if near-term arrivals improve but downside limited by freight and currency.
• FOB Canada (red and green lentils): Largely stable; no strong catalyst for immediate moves, with weather and disease risk the main watchpoints.