India’s Lentil Prices Ease as Mills Step Back from Highs
India’s lentil prices soften as mills curb buying and imported supplies stay ample. Overview of price trends, supply, weather risks and short‑term outlook.
Prices
In India, desi masoor in Delhi slipped by about USD 0.52 per quintal to roughly USD 71.4–71.6 per quintal, while Canadian M25 lentils eased by around USD 0.26 to USD 62.6–63.1 per quintal. Australian-origin lentils were offered near USD 62.3–62.6 per quintal, and Canadian cargoes at Mumbai traded close to USD 58.7–59.2 per quintal, underscoring broad weakness across origins.
Elsewhere, spot and FOB indications also point lower. Canadian dried lentil export prices in June averaged about USD 0.66/kg, with recent retail and cash bids in Canada showing a further week-on-week decline for red lentils. 【0search8】 Chinese small green lentils (FOB Beijing) have edged down over July, with non-organic offers near EUR 1.14/kg and organic around EUR 1.22/kg on 17 July, both modestly below early-July levels. Converted to EUR, Indian wholesale prices still imply a premium to origin offers, but that premium has narrowed as Indian markets weakened.
Supply & Demand
India’s near-term balance is comfortable. Domestic masoor arrivals into major consumption centres remain higher than the same period last year, and mills have scaled back buying after the price run-up. Processors are holding lean stocks and covering only immediate needs, which is preventing any supply squeeze and keeping imported parcels under pressure at ports and inland hubs.
Globally, supply signals remain broadly ample. Australia, a key supplier to India, is forecast to produce a record lentil crop of about 2.2 million tonnes in 2026/27, more than double its 10-year average, according to official projections. 【0search1】 Reports also note that lentils are one of the few Australian winter crops with expanding output despite an overall decline in total winter production. 【0search2】 In Canada, seeded area is expected to edge slightly lower in 2026/27, but average prices are still projected to exceed last season, implying that current softening is from relatively elevated levels. 【0search3】
At the consumer level, high food inflation has so far not destroyed demand for lentils as a staple protein, but price sensitivity is increasing, particularly in urban retail channels. In India, the steadiness of Patna desi masoor near USD 72.7 per quintal shows that underlying consumption continues, even as traders act more cautiously. Overall, the demand side is stable but increasingly price-driven rather than volume-expansive.
Fundamentals & Weather
The dominant short-term driver in India is restrained mill procurement. After a period of firm prices, mills and dal processors have stepped back, maintaining minimal working inventories and cutting forward coverage. This shift in behaviour has quickly translated into lower bids for both domestic and imported masoor, especially for Canadian and Australian cargoes sitting at ports.
On the supply side, ample imported availability is reinforcing bearish sentiment. Significant volumes from Canada and Australia already in the pipeline leave little incentive for aggressive restocking until clearer signals emerge on festival-season demand or policy changes. In Australia, seasonal conditions for winter pulses are currently mixed but broadly adequate; official updates still point to above-average national yields for lentils despite a slightly drier outlook in parts of South Australia in July. 【0search4】【0search17】 For now, no acute weather shock is visible that would materially tighten global lentil supply in the immediate term.
Weather & Crop Outlook
Australia’s lentil belt in South Australia and Victoria has benefited from good early-season rainfall, with reports of a sharp improvement over last year and strong establishment. 【0search9】 The latest national crop report projects lentil production to rise by around 3% to a record 2.2 million tonnes in 2026/27, supported by expanded area and generally favourable moisture. 【0search1】【0search13】
Short-term forecasts show some drier-than-average signals for parts of south-eastern South Australia in July, 【0search17】 but subsoil moisture reserves are currently sufficient to sustain crops through this period. Unless dryness extends or intensifies into the critical flowering and pod-filling stages, the Australian supply outlook should remain comfortable, reinforcing the bearish to neutral tone for import-dependent markets like India.
Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)
- Bias: Mildly bearish to range-bound for Indian masoor and imported lentils, with downside limited by still-firm underlying consumption and potential policy or weather headlines.
- Importers into India: Avoid heavy forward commitments at current levels; consider staggered purchases, using any short-covering rallies on local markets to scale in modest volumes rather than chase prices higher.
- Processors/mills: Maintaining hand-to-mouth coverage remains reasonable while arrivals stay strong and Australian weather is benign. Be prepared to increase coverage quickly if Australian forecasts turn materially drier or if domestic arrivals start to fall seasonally.
- Producers/exporters (Canada, Australia, China): Expect continued price pressure from Indian buyers. Competitive pricing and logistical flexibility will be key to preserving volumes into South Asia in the near term.
3‑Day Directional View (EUR terms)
- India wholesale masoor (converted to EUR): Slightly softer to sideways; limited fresh buying interest suggests modest further easing is possible.
- FOB Canada (green and red lentils): Mostly steady to marginally weaker as export offers track recent declines in cash bids and subdued import demand.
- FOB China small green lentils: Sideways with a mild downward bias after recent small price cuts; any significant moves will likely hinge on shifts in South Asian buying.