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India: Wheat Production Forecast of 105 mt in 2021-22 Crop (July-June) Stock Limit on Wheat by Government as Prices are Not Going Down

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The Centre may impose stock-holding limits on traders and others after assessing the actual quantity lying with them, as the last resort to rein in wheat prices. There has been a constant increase in retail prices of wheat and atta (wheat flour), every month since January and the government has already banned the export of wheat and wheat products such as atta, maida and suji.

Addressing the annual general meeting of the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India, Food Secretary Sudhanshu Pandey said there is no problem of wheat in the country and the Centre has 24 million tonnes (mt) of stock with the Food Corporation of India (FCI). “There is no problem of wheat availability within the country. The overall quantity which we need for the domestic requirement is available in the country,” Pandey said.

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He blamed the continuous increase of wheat prices to “speculative trading”. The average retail price of wheat Is $ 0,38/kg now against $ 0,35 in January and that of wheat flour $ 0,45/kg against $ 0,40. After spices and vegetables, cereals (wheat and rice) had the third highest contributor (9.57 percent increase) in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) food basket for August.

“We will take steps if needed to bring out the grain into the market (to check hoarding and black marketing),” Pandey said adding the requirements of disclosure of wheat stocks by traders could be the first stage before the imposition of stock limits. Asked about the need for a stock limit, he said such steps are not required in a normal situation and currently the situation is “abnormal”.

Pointing out the government’s wheat production forecast of 105 mt in the 2021-22 crop year (July-June) while the trade estimates at about 95-98 mt, he said even if trade estimates are to be believed, the output is enough to meet the domestic demand.

Asked about wheat export prospects, he said the country has already shipped 4.5 mt so far this fiscal and he does not see any scope of further improvement since all valid Letters of Credit (LoC) have been honored. Of the total export volume, 2.1 mt were shipped before the imposition of the ban on wheat exports on May 13. India had exported a record 7.2 mt of wheat in 2021-22. Last month, the Cabinet also approved a ban on the export of all types of wheat flour, which were earlier allowed through permits.

Source: The Hindu business

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