Indian and Brazilian Peanut Prices Hold Steady Amid Weather Watch

Indian and Brazilian peanut export prices are broadly stable, with a mild firm tone for higher grades out of India and flat raw peanut values in Brazil. No major supply shock is visible in either origin, but growing weather risks tied to a shifting ENSO pattern are beginning to shape medium‑term sentiment rather than immediate spot prices.

Export markets for peanuts in India and Brazil are entering mid‑April with comfortable availability and limited nearby demand spikes. In India, larger summer peanut acreage and supportive farm‑gate economics are keeping farmer selling active, while buyers remain price‑sensitive and selective on quality. In Brazil, the broader oilseed and grains complex is closely watching El Niño‑related heat and irregular rains, but the direct impact on peanuts so far is modest and localized. Overall, the short‑term balance suggests a sideways price trajectory in EUR terms, with weather and new‑season planting signals as the key swing factors for Q2–Q3.

📈 Prices & Spreads

All price indications below are approximate export market values converted to EUR for mid‑April 2026.

Origin	Type / Grade	Location / Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1‑Month Trend
India (IN)	Roasted split 60/70/80	New Delhi, FOB	≈ 1.12	Sideways to slightly firm vs mid‑March
India (IN)	Birdfeed	New Delhi, CFR	≈ 0.98	Flat on month
India (IN)	Java 50–80 & Bold 40–70	New Delhi / Gujarat, FOB	≈ 0.92–1.20	Stable, narrow range
Brazil (BR)	Raw peanuts	Brasília, FOB	≈ 1.18	Flat vs late March

Indian export parity is helped by firm but not aggressive demand and a slightly weaker INR in recent weeks, while Brazilian quotes remain anchored by competition from soybeans and other oilseeds rather than by acute peanut scarcity.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather Drivers (BR, IN)

India (IN)

India’s summer peanut acreage has increased by around 9% year on year to approximately 459,000 hectares as of early April, signaling confidence among farmers and potential for solid new‑season availability if weather cooperates. Export prospects are described as improving into late 2026, supported by competitive prices and ongoing demand from Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

Weather‑wise, national forecasters and private agencies highlight an emerging El Niño risk for the 2026 monsoon, with several outlooks flagging higher chances of a below‑normal rainy season and late‑season deficits. While these concerns focus more on kharif 2026 than current summer groundnuts, they are already influencing hedging strategies and forward buying interest in Gujarat and other key peanut belts.

Brazil (BR)

In Brazil, broader crop commentary for major field crops points to above‑average temperatures and irregular rainfall across parts of the Southeast, including São Paulo and Minas Gerais, typical of an El Niño‑influenced pattern this autumn. This can tighten moisture conditions for late‑cycle peanut fields and raise quality risks if hot, dry spells align with pod filling or harvest.

However, no acute, peanut‑specific production shock has been reported in the last few days. The main risk is cumulative: if dryness deepens or carries into the next planting window, Brazil’s exportable surplus for 2026/27 could be trimmed at the margin, particularly from the core peanut areas in São Paulo state that already compete with sugarcane for land.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Sentiment

• Comfortable nearby supply in India: Rising summer acreage and steady farmer selling keep spot supply adequate, capping immediate upside in FOB prices despite modest firmness in higher grades.
• Export demand steady, not overheated: Buyers in Asia and the Middle East are active but price‑sensitive, favoring hand‑to‑mouth coverage rather than long‑dated commitments, which keeps the forward curve relatively flat.
• Macro weather overhang: ENSO discussions are intensifying, with several agencies highlighting an elevated probability of El Niño development later in 2026 and associated monsoon risks for India as well as hotter, more irregular rainfall in Brazil.
• Cross‑commodity competition: In Brazil, peanuts continue to compete with soybeans and sugarcane for area, and current pricing does not yet justify a marked shift in favor of peanuts, reinforcing a broadly stable supply outlook for now.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indications (BR, IN)

Short‑Term Trading Recommendations

• Importers (EU, MENA, Asia): Use the current sideways market to extend coverage modestly into early Q3 2026, especially for Indian Java and roasted splits, which show a slight firm bias but remain historically competitive in EUR terms.
• Indian exporters: Maintain offer discipline on higher grades but be flexible on birdfeed and lower counts to stimulate volume; consider light forward sales before monsoon headlines potentially raise weather premiums.
• Brazilian shippers: Hold offers steady for raw peanuts; any further confirmation of persistent heat/dryness in São Paulo and Minas Gerais could justify a small risk premium for late‑2026 positions.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (in EUR, BR & IN)

• India – FOB New Delhi / Gujarat (all grades): Sideways. Comfortable near‑term supply and only gradual demand keep prices in a tight range, with intra‑week moves likely <1–2% in EUR terms.
• Brazil – FOB main export regions: Sideways to very slightly firm. Weather headlines may add sentiment support, but no concrete supply loss argues against sharp moves over the next three days.

Overall, peanut markets in India and Brazil look range‑bound in the immediate term, with traders increasingly positioning around medium‑term weather and acreage risks rather than reacting to any immediate physical shortage.