Indian and Vietnamese Rice FOB Prices Steady as Weather Risks Linger

Indian and Vietnamese rice export prices are broadly stable around recent highs, with only marginal week-on-week moves across key grades. Tight but adequate supplies, cautious importer buying and stable policies in both origins are keeping the market in a narrow range in late September. Across India and Vietnam, export offers show little change over the last week, even as global benchmarks for 5% broken and fragrant rice have eased slightly from mid‑year peaks. India’s removal of broad export restrictions earlier in 2026 has normalised trade flows, while Vietnam’s export quotations have plateaued after a sharp run‑up driven by earlier harvest delays and reduced summer–autumn yields. Weather in major growing belts is seasonally mixed but not yet threatening enough to force a fresh price spike, leaving buyers to focus on timing purchases against firm but range‑bound FOB values.

Prices

• Our latest quotes (FOB, 26 September 2026) show all tracked Indian and Vietnamese grades flat week‑on‑week in EUR terms, following small declines earlier in the month.
• In USD terms, external benchmarks indicate Vietnamese 5% broken around the low‑ to mid‑US$ 430s/tonne and Jasmine around US$ 520–530/tonne, slightly softer than mid‑September but still elevated versus 2025.
• Indicative Indian 5% broken and parboiled prices in global trade are reported around the upper US$ 370s/tonne, broadly unchanged this week and keeping India competitive against Thailand and Pakistan.

Supply & Demand Drivers

• India: Export restrictions imposed in earlier years on non‑basmati and broken rice have been rolled back, and from marketing year 2024/25 India has allowed unrestricted exports of all rice categories, including non‑basmati. This continues in 2026/27, supporting high export availability.
• Vietnam: Vietnamese rice export prices climbed to 19‑month highs in August on tightening domestic supply due to delayed and lower‑yield summer–autumn harvests. Volumes in January–August 2026 are reported down 6.3% in volume and nearly 12% in value year‑on‑year, reflecting reduced shipments at higher prices.
• Trade flows: The Philippines and China remain Vietnam’s largest outlets, jointly taking over 60% of value, while India continues to dominate in parboiled and non‑basmati segments after policy normalisation.
• Global benchmarks: Vietnam 5% broken rice indicator prices have eased from extreme 2023 levels but remain higher than a year ago, consistent with firm global fundamentals and cautious exporter selling.

Weather & Crop Outlook (IN, VN)

• India (IN): Kharif 2026 has been marked by below‑normal monsoon rainfall and a reported reduction of over 1.6 million hectares in paddy area, raising concerns on overall rice output and keeping export offers firm.
• Despite earlier rainfall deficits, late‑season showers have improved soil moisture in parts of the Indo‑Gangetic belt, but not enough yet to fully offset production worries cited by domestic analysts.
• Vietnam (VN): National forecasts for 26–27 September indicate typical late‑wet‑season conditions, with showers and moderate thunderstorms in parts of the Red River and Mekong deltas but no severe, widespread flooding signal in the immediate term.
• With the main harvest largely progressed in key Vietnamese deltas, short‑term weather is more relevant for logistics and drying than for yield formation, suggesting limited immediate impact on FOB prices.

Fundamentals & Policy

• India policy: After years of ad‑hoc export duties and bans, India has moved to a regime of free exports for both basmati and non‑basmati rice categories, while maintaining contract registration via APEDA for non‑basmati shipments to improve transparency.
• Recent APEDA circulars focus on procedural extensions to export certificates and destination changes rather than new quantitative limits, signalling a stable policy backdrop heading into late 2026.
• Vietnam fundamentals: Government and industry data show export prices stabilising after mid‑year gains; factories continue to buy raw material rice at firm levels, and total 2026 exports are projected around the mid‑7‑million‑tonnes range, slightly below last year.
• Global rice indices and FAO data indicate a modest year‑on‑year increase in average rice prices, underscoring persistent tightness across Asia even as some supply bottlenecks ease.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

Trading outlook (spot and nearby)

• For Indian sellers (FOB New Delhi): With EUR prices flat week‑on‑week and global benchmarks still firm, nearby export offers can remain steady to slightly higher, especially for premium 1121/1509 and basmati. Consider holding minimum price ideas but stay flexible on freight or payment terms for large parcels.
• For Vietnamese sellers (FOB Hanoi): Given recent softening in USD export quotes and stable EUR levels, near‑term strategy should prioritise volume commitments over further price hikes, particularly in 5% broken and Jasmine where regional competition is strong.
• For importers: With both origins trading in a narrow band and no acute short‑term weather threat, staggered coverage for Q4 2026 looks appropriate. Focus on India for parboiled and some non‑basmati needs, and Vietnam for fragrant and specialty demand.

3‑day regional FOB price indication (directional)

• India – New Delhi (FOB, all main rice grades listed): Prices are expected to remain broadly stable over the next three days (27–29 September 2026), with any moves likely confined to a very narrow band driven by individual deals rather than fundamentals.
• Vietnam – Hanoi (FOB, long white 5%, Jasmine, Japonica and specialty): With export benchmarks easing only slightly and local raw material prices firm, a sideways to mildly softer tone is anticipated over the next three days, mainly in USD but translating to flat EUR offers in our quotations.