Indian and Vietnamese Rice Hold Stable as Monsoon and El Niño Risks Loom

Indian and Vietnamese FOB rice prices are broadly steady in late June, with only marginal softening from early-month levels despite weather and policy uncertainties. Ample Indian stocks and firm Vietnamese export demand are keeping the market supported while buyers stay cautious about monsoon progress and El Niño-related risks. Physical trading remains selective but underpinned by strong import demand in Asia and Africa. India enters the 2026 kharif season with record state rice inventories and below‑normal early monsoon rains, while Vietnam’s shipments and prices have rebounded on robust buying from the Philippines, China and other Asian markets. Over the next few days, weather in India’s eastern belt and northern Vietnam is forecast to be seasonally wet but not extreme, leaving short‑term crop and price risks contained.

Prices

All prices converted at approx. 1 USD = 0.93 EUR for comparability.

Benchmark Indian export unit values around 0.62 EUR/kg for generic rice in June confirm a firm year‑on‑year trend, up over 10% versus 2025, in line with the modestly elevated domestic wholesale market. Vietnamese export prices, especially for Jasmine and 5% broken, have rebounded from last year’s lows and now sit roughly 20–25% above year‑ago levels amid stronger demand.

Supply & Demand

India enters the new kharif cycle with government rice stocks above 68 million tonnes as of June 1, far exceeding buffer norms and offering a strong cushion against potential production shortfalls. This storage overhang, combined with only a modest decline in total rice exports in early 2026, is limiting upside pressure on FOB offers despite monsoon uncertainty.

Vietnam, by contrast, is operating in a tighter export balance. Shipments in the first half of 2026 are estimated around 5 million tonnes, up nearly 6% year‑on‑year, reflecting robust buying from the Philippines, China and other Asian markets. While robust flows support prices, they also reduce the available buffer should El Niño‑linked weather issues curtail later crops.

Weather & Crop Conditions (IN, VN)

India’s southwest monsoon has started with a marked deficit: June rainfall is roughly 40% below normal, and overall monsoon expectations have been trimmed to about 90% of the long‑period average. This has slowed early kharif sowing, including paddy, especially in western and parts of central and northern India, though eastern states such as Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh are now seeing more regular showers in late June.

Seven‑day forecasts for Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh point to scattered to moderate rainfall, warm temperatures and no major heat spikes, conditions that should gradually support transplanting without immediate stress to seedlings. Vietnam’s northern rice areas around Hanoi and the Red River Delta are entering a seasonally wet period under El Niño watch, but no acute short‑term anomalies have been flagged; attention will focus on rainfall distribution rather than totals as the next crop develops.

Fundamentals & Policy Signals

Indian export policy remains tightly managed, with mandatory registration for both basmati and non‑basmati contracts under the APEDA Registration‑cum‑Allocation regime, preserving government flexibility to fine‑tune flows if food inflation re‑emerges. Recently, the non‑basmati export development fund has accumulated significant fees from exporters, indicating sustained activity despite administrative friction.

On the demand side, Vietnamese exporters benefit from strong inquiries from key Asian buyers and some African destinations, with El Niño risk prompting a degree of forward coverage. For now, the combination of India’s heavy stocks and Vietnam’s brisk exports keeps the global market well supplied, but the concentration of import demand in a few weather‑sensitive exporters heightens vulnerability to any monsoon or El Niño shock later in the season.

3–7 Day Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Short‑term price bias – India: With FOB offers in New Delhi stable and supported by comfortable stocks, near‑term EUR‑denominated prices for both non‑basmati steam and basmati sella are likely to remain in a tight sideways band over the next three days, barring a sudden policy move.
• Short‑term price bias – Vietnam: Hanoi FOB quotations for 5% broken and Jasmine are expected to stay firm but range‑bound as exporters manage strong order books against steady loadings.
• For importers: Use current stability to secure coverage for Q3–Q4, prioritising Vietnamese 5% and Jasmine where quality differentials justify the premium, while keeping Indian non‑basmati as a price‑competitive hedge if monsoon conditions normalise.
• For exporters in India: Consider moderate forward sales on non‑basmati at current EUR levels, but retain flexibility on basmati volumes given geopolitical uncertainties in key premium markets.
• Risk watch: Monitor July monsoon updates and any fresh El Niño assessments closely; a further deterioration in rainfall outlook or new export restrictions from major origins would quickly tighten the global balance and lift EUR prices.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional, FOB, EUR)