Indian Celery Seeds Hold Firm Despite Weak Monsoon Signals

Indian celery seed prices in New Delhi are broadly steady to slightly softer, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves and no sign yet of a sharp correction despite weather‑related uncertainty and firm export interest. Indian celery remains in a demand‑driven phase, with a tight carry‑in and reduced 2026 crop offset by cautious buying as global spice importers watch the monsoon and El Niño signals. Market commentary from June highlighted a roughly one‑third production cut versus early expectations and a 57–60% year‑on‑year price jump, encouraging farmer stock‑holding and limiting spot availability. This backdrop, combined with below‑normal monsoon forecasts for 2026 and concerns over a strong El Niño episode, keeps downside in prices shallow even as the near‑term tone in New Delhi shows minor easing.

Prices

Domestic celery seed quotes in New Delhi (India, conventional 99% whole) are essentially flat on the week in EUR terms. FCA New Delhi values translate to roughly EUR 0.70/kg, showing a negligible 1–2% dip from the prior update. FOB New Delhi export offers are holding at about EUR 1.17/kg, unchanged over the last reported week and only fractionally lower than early August indications, confirming a stable but firm price structure with very limited downside follow‑through so far.

Supply & Demand

Recent spice market reporting for June 2026 indicated that Indian celery seed production was revised down to about 4,500–5,000 tonnes from initial expectations near 6,500–7,000 tonnes due to extreme weather, despite a 30% increase in sown area. This sharp cut, combined with a weak carry‑forward, left domestic inventories tight and encouraged growers in key states such as Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana to hold stocks in anticipation of higher returns.

Export demand has remained supportive, with reports noting a firm to strong price trend in May and June and a 57–60% uplift compared with the same period in 2025. However, current spot buying appears more selective as importers weigh elevated prices against broader weakness in some other spices and a risk of monsoon‑related yield stress for alternative origins. This balance is keeping the celery market well‑supported but not aggressively trending higher for now.

Weather & Crop Conditions (India)

The India Meteorological Department’s long‑range guidance for the 2026 southwest monsoon points to below‑normal seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole, with particular concern for parts of northwest India where celery is concentrated. Independent weather watchers also flag the ongoing development of a very strong El Niño, typically associated with drier conditions in northern India, reinforcing risks of moisture stress and lower yields for the 2026/27 sowing cycle if deficits persist.

Short‑term, crowd‑sourced weather reports suggest that August has brought some active monsoon spells and heavy rain episodes in parts of North India and the western Himalaya, but commentators note that these bursts are unlikely to fully repair the broader rainfall deficit. For celery already in storage, immediate weather impact is limited; the main concern is the upcoming planting window, where sub‑par soil moisture could cap any further area expansion and keep the medium‑term supply outlook tight.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Tight balance sheet: Lower realised production and weak carry‑in keep India’s exportable surplus constrained, supporting FOB values despite softer week‑on‑week moves.
• Farmer holding behaviour: Expectation of further price gains has led many producers to delay selling, restricting spot liquidity and cushioning any downside.
• Macro weather risk: Official forecasts for below‑normal monsoon rainfall in 2026 and the prospect of a strong El Niño raise the risk of another constrained crop next season, an important bullish background factor.
• Demand signals: Export inquiries remain regular but somewhat price‑sensitive after the sharp year‑on‑year rally; some buyers are postponing large tenders, hoping for a correction that has not yet materialised.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Short‑term bias: Sideways to mildly firm. Limited selling interest and weather‑driven uncertainty argue against aggressive downside, even if nearby demand is not particularly strong.
• For exporters: Consider locking in part of Q4–Q1 shipments at current FOB levels around EUR 1.17/kg, while keeping some volume open to benefit if tightness escalates on further monsoon disappointment.
• For importers: Stagger purchases; cover near‑term needs now but avoid over‑buying at the current elevated base, as any improvement in rainfall or farmer selling could temporarily ease FCA New Delhi offers.
• Risk watch: Monitor IMD updates on rainfall in Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana and any new assessments of El Niño intensity; sharper drought signals would quickly translate into firmer forward offers.

3‑Day Price Indication (Region: IN)

• New Delhi, FCA (domestic): Seen stable to slightly firm in EUR terms around 0.70/kg over the next three days, with narrow intra‑day ranges as physical activity remains moderate.
• New Delhi, FOB (export): Expected to hold near 1.17/kg, with a modest upward bias if fresh inquiries emerge from Europe or the Middle East amid ongoing concerns about Indian supply reliability.