Indian Chickpea Prices Hold Firm After Late-May Rally

Indian chickpea (kabuli) prices are consolidating at elevated levels after a sharp mandi spike in late May, with export offers from New Delhi broadly steady and only modest week‑on‑week gains. Stable weather in key rabi chickpea states and comfortable overall pulse supply expectations are tempering any further immediate upside, but high domestic demand and firm retail prices are preventing a correction. Indian wholesale and export markets are currently digesting the late‑May rally in kabuli chana, when some mandis reported intraday gains of around 16%, driven by aggressive local buying and tight near‑term arrivals. At the consumer level, kabuli chana prices at major online retailers remain high, signalling strong downstream demand and limited discounting pressure. With rabi pulses output for 2025‑26 projected to be ample in aggregate and monsoon onset only just beginning, the immediate focus is on short‑term availability and trade flows rather than weather‑driven production risk.

Prices & Spreads

All prices converted to EUR at ~€1 = ₹90 (approximate for June 2026).

Indicative Indian retail prices for branded kabuli chana remain in the region of €2.40–€3.70/kg equivalent on major e‑commerce platforms, underlining a wide margin between farm/export and consumer levels.

Supply, Demand & Policy Drivers

India remains the dominant global chickpea producer, accounting for roughly 70% of world output according to recent agronomic assessments. Government advance estimates for 2025‑26 point to robust rabi pulse production overall, with total rabi foodgrains and pulses expected to rise versus last year. This backdrop is helping cap bullish expectations after the May mandi spike.

Pulses import policy continues to be used as a balancing tool: duty‑free or low‑duty import windows for key pulses are currently extended through March 2026 to contain domestic food inflation. At the same time, tariffs on substitute peas have been kept higher to incentivise rabi sowing of chana and lentils. Together, these measures support domestic chickpea acreage while allowing targeted imports if supplies tighten.

On the demand side, firm retail prices and resilient Indian consumption are underpinning steady buying along the value chain. Export interest in Indian kabuli remains active, supported by India’s established role as a reliable bulk supplier. However, the current price premium of Mexican over Indian origin limits aggressive switching in most destinations.

Weather & Crop Conditions (India focus)

The current chickpea crop in India is already harvested, so near‑term price risk from weather is limited. In key producing states such as Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, early June weather is characterised by very hot, mostly dry conditions with maximum temperatures in the low‑ to mid‑40s°C and only light showers expected later in the week. These conditions mainly affect soil‑moisture recharge and preparation for the upcoming kharif season rather than the completed rabi chickpea crop.

At the national level, the government has slightly scaled down the fertiliser requirement projection for the 2026 kharif season due to El Niño concerns but has secured substantial fertiliser availability via imports and domestic production. This should indirectly support input availability and cost stability for the next rabi sowing of pulses later this year.

Market Fundamentals & Sentiment

• Production outlook: Official projections suggest comfortable 2025‑26 rabi pulses output, reducing fears of structural shortage in chickpeas.
• Mandis vs export prices: The sharp one‑day mandi rally of ~16% in kabuli chana on 24 May indicates tight near‑term physical availability and possible short‑covering by local traders. Export offers, however, show only modest week‑on‑week firming, signalling a stabilising phase.
• Input costs & policy: Fertiliser subsidy support and secure supply for 2026 reduce the risk of a cost‑driven acreage drop for the coming rabi season.
• Macro & food inflation: Pulses remain under close policy watch because of their weight in India’s food inflation basket. Any renewed spike in mandi chickpea prices would likely trigger faster import facilitation or stock interventions.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Exporters (India, kabuli 9–12 mm): With New Delhi FCA/FOB offers stable to slightly firmer and global demand steady, consider maintaining offers near current levels with only small tactical discounts for prompt, large‑lot shipments. Upside appears limited without fresh supply shocks.
• Domestic buyers (mills, packers): After the late‑May spike, immediate downside is unlikely, but the risk‑reward for chasing prices higher is poor. Prefer staggered coverage on dips or when mandi arrivals briefly improve, rather than front‑loading purchases.
• Importers (Middle East, EU, etc.): Indian origin remains cost‑competitive versus Mexican kabuli. Use any temporary softening in freight or INR strength to secure Q3–Q4 positions, but avoid over‑committing at current elevated levels.

3‑Day Price Direction (Region: India, New Delhi)

Based on current fundamentals, policy stance and the absence of new supply shocks, Indian chickpea prices in New Delhi are expected to:

• Wholesale/export (kabuli 9–12 mm, FCA/FOB New Delhi): Trade broadly sideways over the next three days (June 3–5), within a narrow ±1–2% band in EUR terms.
• Mandis in major producing states: After the recent sharp rally, day‑to‑day volatility may remain elevated, but the overall trend is for consolidation rather than another leg higher in the immediate term.
• Retail (packaged kabuli chana): Retail prices are likely to stay firm and sticky given high marketing margins and stable consumer demand.