Indian Chickpea Squeeze Lifts Global Market Amid Australian Export Drop

Indian chickpea prices are grinding higher for a second session as tight domestic supply and sharply reduced Australian exports underpin a modest but broad-based recovery in both desi and kabuli segments. The market mood has turned cautiously bullish: dal mills are buying consistently to secure raw material, while farmers hold back sales because spot prices remain below the government’s Minimum Support Price (MSP). At the same time, Australia’s export slowdown and higher landed costs for substitute yellow peas are closing off alternative supply channels. This combination is tightening India’s balance sheet just as arrivals from key producing states begin to ebb, creating upside risk for chickpea prices into early June.

Prices & Spreads

In Delhi, Rajasthan-origin desi chickpeas gained about $0.26 per quintal, trading roughly between $59.9 and $60.2 per 100 kg, with similar gains for Madhya Pradesh and Jaipur-origin lots. At producing mandis in Rajasthan, auction prices broadly ranged from about $58.9 to $61.0 per quintal, keeping spot levels just under the MSP of around $61.2 per 100 kg and limiting farmer selling incentives.

Kabuli chickpeas from Maharashtra strengthened more visibly, moving from a previous $62.5–67.7 to about $66.7–70.9 per quintal, reflecting both steady domestic demand and Pakistan-facing export interest. On the import side, Australian chickpeas for June–July shipment are indicated around $580 per tonne CnF, with Tanzanian origin at about $560 per tonne, both exposed to elevated freight and geopolitical risk linked to the Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Supply & Demand Drivers

The immediate driver of the Indian rally is constrained availability rather than a sudden demand shock. Desi chana prices staying below MSP discourage farmers from releasing stocks, steadily reducing free-float in wholesale channels. Government procurement and on-farm holding together act as a buffer, so even modest dal mill buying exerts an outsized impact on spot levels.

Dal processors have now bought actively for two consecutive sessions, an unusual pattern in what has otherwise been a choppy post-harvest market. Their motivation is both coverage and risk management: with arrivals in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan expected to trend lower into month-end, mills prefer to secure near-term requirements while prices are still only marginally below MSP and before any sharper squeeze unfolds.

Substitution levers are also weaker than usual. Yellow peas, a key partial replacement for chickpeas in dal formulations, face a 30% import duty into India. Coupled with a weaker rupee, this has lifted their landed cost to about $43.8–44.8 per quintal versus domestic market prices around $41.7–42.7, making imports uneconomical and locking processors more firmly into chickpea usage.

External Trade & Geopolitics

The structural story is increasingly global. Australia, typically the world’s second-largest chickpea exporter and India’s primary offshore supplier, has sharply curtailed shipments. March exports dropped to roughly 27,000 tonnes, with only about 7,000 tonnes landing in India versus more than 70,000 tonnes a year earlier and over 220,000 tonnes just in February 2026.

This collapse is not primarily a crop failure but a logistics shock. The ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis linked to the Iran war has effectively closed the chokepoint to most commercial shipping, forcing costly rerouting and throttling dry bulk flows. As a result, Australian exporters face higher freight, longer transit times and greater risk, all of which discourage aggressive forward sales into India despite still-adequate on-farm stocks.

Between October and December last year, India imported around 640,000 tonnes of Australian chickpeas; by March that pipeline had almost run dry. Against this backdrop, Tanzanian chickpeas at about $560 per tonne CnF offer some diversification but cannot fully replace Australian volumes in the near term, leaving India more dependent on its own crop just as farmer selling slows.

Weather & Crop Outlook

The current price move is being driven more by logistics and policy than by an immediate weather shock. Rabi-season chickpeas in India have already been harvested, and recent reports point to broadly favourable conditions through March and early April, allowing the crop to reach mandis in good quality.

For the next two to three weeks, weather in key chickpea belts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is expected to be seasonally hot and mostly dry, supporting post-harvest storage and limiting any quality-related distress selling. Barring an early and unusually intense pre-monsoon event, supply-side weather risk to stored chickpeas should remain low through the short-term horizon.

Short-Term Market Outlook

Over the next three weeks, the balance for desi chana looks modestly constructive. Daily arrivals in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are projected to ease into month-end, and if Australian shipments fail to normalise quickly, India’s domestic market could experience a more sustained firming phase rather than a brief technical bounce. Upside potential is amplified by still-low visible stocks in trade channels and by dal mills’ need to maintain coverage.

Kabuli chickpeas are likely to hold their recent gains given steady, albeit slower, consumption in North India and persistent export demand from Pakistan. With international offers from India currently competitive in EUR terms for medium and smaller counts, some incremental export interest could emerge if global buyers grow more concerned about Australian reliability. That said, any sharp domestic price spike could trigger policy responses or a recalibration of MSP operations later in the season.

Trading & Procurement Recommendations

• Dal mills (India): Maintain disciplined but active coverage for the next 4–6 weeks, layering purchases on minor dips while avoiding aggressive chasing if prices overshoot MSP by a wide margin.
• Importers into South Asia & Middle East: Diversify origin where possible (India, Tanzania, Mexico) and secure at least partial Q3 needs early, as Hormuz-related freight risk and Australian export uncertainty may persist.
• Producers in India: With spot still below MSP, stagger sales between private trade and government channels, using any further firming towards or above MSP to monetise a portion of on-farm stocks.
• Food manufacturers & retailers: Consider modest forward cover in kabuli segments given stronger price momentum and reliance on a narrower set of origins.

3-Day Price Indication (Directional)

• India mandis (desi chickpeas): Slight upward bias as dal mills continue buying and arrivals ease; prices likely to edge closer to MSP in EUR terms.
• India kabuli (domestic & export-oriented): Mostly steady to firm, with better support for larger calibres tied to Pakistan-facing demand.
• Export markets (FOB India & Mexico): Broadly stable in EUR per kg, but upside risk if freight premia widen further due to ongoing Hormuz logistics disruptions.