Indian Chickpeas Ease While Mexican Offers Firm on Weather and Supply Risks

Indian chickpea export prices are edging lower across most sizes, while Mexican offers remain firm to slightly higher, widening the premium for large Kabuli beans ex‑Mexico. Weather‑related risks to upcoming crops and a still‑weak Indian monsoon are limiting downside, but near‑term export competition from India is intensifying. Chickpea markets in early July show a mild divergence: India’s New Delhi FCA and FOB quotes have slipped 1–3% over the past two weeks, tracking softer domestic Kabuli Chana mandi prices and cautious demand. In contrast, Mexican FOB levels are holding a modest uptrend, underpinned by earlier reports of weather‑hit garbanzo yields in Sinaloa and tight high‑quality exportable surplus. With India’s monsoon still below normal so far, pulses sowing is lagging, but forecasts signal some rainfall improvement in early July, keeping medium‑term supply risks in play without triggering immediate price spikes.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR using an approximate rate of 1 EUR = 90 INR and 1 EUR = 20 MXN for reference.

Domestic Kabuli Chana wholesale prices in India averaged about ₹6,400–6,700 per quintal (≈0.79–0.84 EUR/kg) in early July, slightly below late June levels, confirming a soft bias in local markets that feeds through to export FCA and lower‑end FOB offers.

Supply & Demand

India remains the dominant global chickpea producer and exporter, and recent mandi data suggest comfortable near‑term availability, with no signs of acute tightness despite weaker monsoon progress so far. Wholesale Kabuli prices have eased marginally week‑on‑week, indicating that current stocks and rabi carryover are sufficient to meet domestic and export demand at present levels.

In Mexico, exportable Kabuli supplies are more constrained. Earlier in 2026, growers in Sinaloa and neighbouring regions reported lower garbanzo yields due to atypical weather and moisture stress, and broader field reports point to up to 20% yield losses in parts of the state’s crop mix. While these reports are a few months old, they underpin today’s tighter export balance and help explain why Mexican FOB prices have trended higher rather than following India lower.

Weather & Crop Outlook (IN, MX)

India’s southwest monsoon has been notably weak so far this season, with cumulative rainfall between 1 June and 1 July running about 38% below average, leading to a sharp drop in kharif sowing area, including pulses. The India Meteorological Department and independent forecasters highlight a below‑normal rainfall bias over key north‑central states in July, which could delay soil moisture recharge and influence farmers’ planting decisions for pulses and rotation crops.

However, forecasts for early July point to a gradual revival of monsoon activity, with improving rainfall prospects over parts of central and northern India. This reduces the immediate risk of severe acreage loss but keeps yield uncertainty elevated, which may cap further downside in chickpea prices once markets look beyond current carry‑in stocks.

In Mexico, no major new weather shocks have been reported in the past few days, but the 2025/26 season’s garbanzo crop in Sinaloa has already experienced stress from atypical climatic conditions, limiting yield potential and tightening the supply base for current export programs. With much of the damage already embedded in harvested volumes, the near‑term weather outlook is less price‑sensitive than in India, though any further dryness ahead of the next planting window would reinforce the firm tone in Mexican offers.

Fundamentals & Price Drivers

• India: Soft domestic basis – National average Kabuli Chana mandi prices dipped slightly around 1–2 July, aligning with the 1–3% easing seen in New Delhi FCA quotes for most sizes, as traders weigh comfortable near‑term stocks against monsoon concerns.
• Mexico: Quality premium – Mexican 42–44 count Kabuli maintains a sizeable premium (~0.25–0.30 EUR/kg) over Indian origin on FOB terms, supported by lower yields and strong demand from Mediterranean and Middle Eastern buyers seeking large, uniform kernels.
• Weather risk skew – The weak but reviving Indian monsoon keeps downside in Indian chickpea prices limited beyond the very short term, as any sustained rainfall deficit into August would tighten the 2026/27 balance sheet for pulses.

Trading Outlook (next 3–7 days)

• Buyers (importers, food manufacturers): Consider scaling into Indian FCA/FOB Kabuli for prompt to August shipment while prices are 1–3% off late‑June highs, prioritising 42–46 count where discounts vs Mexico are widest. Hedge weather risk with staggered purchases rather than all‑at‑once coverage.
• Origin sellers – India: Avoid aggressive undercutting below current FCA levels; monitor monsoon updates closely. Any confirmation of persistent July rainfall deficits could justify firmer offers, especially for higher counts and October–December positions.
• Origin sellers – Mexico: Maintain a firm pricing stance on 42–44 and large‑size Kabuli, as supply‑side constraints and quality premiums support current FOB levels. Tactical small discounts may be needed only for nearby slots competing directly with Indian offers.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• India – New Delhi FCA/FOB Kabuli (all sizes): Bias steady to slightly softer over the next 3 days as domestic prices consolidate and buyers remain cautious, pending clearer monsoon improvement signals.
• Mexico – FOB Mexico City Kabuli (42–44, 75–80): Bias steady to slightly firmer with limited high‑quality exportable stock and no fresh bearish news on weather or yields.