Indian Chickpeas Under NAFED Auction Shadow but Global Downside Looks Limited

Indian chickpeas are softening for a second session on the prospect of fresh NAFED auctions and cautious mill buying, but structurally tight imports and low port stocks are expected to cap the downside. The global chickpea complex is entering late May with India’s Delhi market under pressure from upcoming NAFED sales of 2023–24 stocks, even as domestic arrivals slow and imports have dropped by a third year-on-year. Australian CIF offers remain steady and Indian export offers in New Delhi show only modest recent declines, suggesting limited room for a sharp correction. A heatwave in North and Central India and a slightly below-normal monsoon outlook add medium-term supply risk, but near-term direction hinges on the pace and pricing of NAFED’s chana auctions and the response of dal mills. European buyers face a narrow timing window before the market attempts to rebuild risk premia once auction volumes are absorbed.

Prices & Differentials

In Delhi, Rajasthan-origin chickpeas have eased for a second day, with values slipping by about USD 0.26 to around USD 61.72–61.98 per 100 kg. Madhya Pradesh-origin chana trades slightly lower at USD 61.20–61.46 per 100 kg, also down USD 0.26 on the session, while Jaipur-line parcels hover around USD 61.46–61.72 per 100 kg. Australian chickpeas – the main imported substitute into India – are quoted broadly steady at about USD 605–610 per tonne CIF for June–July container shipments.

Converted to euros (using ~0.92 EUR/USD), Delhi spot works out near EUR 0.57–0.58/kg, while Australian CIF offers equate to roughly EUR 556–562/tonne. Current export offer indications from New Delhi align with this structure: larger-calibre Indian chickpeas (42–44 count) are quoted around EUR 0.88–0.92/kg FOB, with smaller sizes trading down toward EUR 0.68–0.77/kg. Mexican origin remains at a premium, with 12 mm chickpeas near EUR 1.07/kg FOB Mexico City, implying European buyers still see India as the cost floor for medium and small calibres.

Supply & Demand Drivers

The immediate driver of India’s chickpea market is the impending NAFED electronic auction of 2023 and 2024 crop stocks in Madhya Pradesh, which is weighing on nearby sentiment. Even as arrivals from key producing states have moderated compared with earlier weeks, the prospect of state stocks entering the pipeline is encouraging mills and traders to delay purchases. Dal processors are largely buying hand-to-mouth against besan and chana dal demand rather than building forward positions, amplifying the soft tone in Delhi.

Structurally, however, the balance looks tighter than the current price dip suggests. India imported only about 1.0 million tonnes of chickpeas in fiscal 2025–26, down 33% from 1.5 million tonnes the previous year, while visible port inventories of imported pulses are materially lower than a year ago. Yellow pea imports – a key demand-side substitute – have been sharply curtailed by a 30% import duty and an unfavourable landed cost due to a weak rupee. This combination limits the scope for sustained demand switching away from chickpeas, underpinning the medium-term floor.

Fundamentals & External Context

Market participants broadly agree that a sharp downward break is unlikely despite the current auction overhang. With thin import flows, reduced port stocks and firm alternative pulse prices globally, Indian chickpeas already trade near levels where state procurement and private restocking interest tend to re-emerge. Internationally, wholesale chickpea prices have eased from last year’s highs and stabilized at slightly lower levels, with recent data showing benchmark spot values down year-on-year but no sign of a steep collapse.

Weather and policy are emerging as key medium-term watchpoints. India is facing a severe heatwave across Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, with temperatures well above seasonal norms and the IMD warning of persistent heat through at least May 28. At the same time, the meteorological outlook calls for a slightly below-normal southwest monsoon in 2026, around 92% of the long-period average, which could trim pulse yields if rainfall deficits materialize. For now, these factors are more supportive for prices beyond the current 2–4 week window than for the immediate spot trend.

Short-Term Outlook (2–4 Weeks)

Over the next month, the base case is for range-bound Indian chickpea prices with a mild downward bias as NAFED stocks are progressively released and absorbed. Traders expect the auction-clearing pace and achieved prices in Madhya Pradesh to set the tone: aggressive selling at discounts would prolong the soft patch, while measured releases closer to prevailing market levels would accelerate the formation of a floor. Given restricted imports and tight yellow pea availability, any further downside from here is likely to be incremental rather than abrupt.

European and Middle Eastern buyers of Indian chickpeas should treat the NAFED auction phase as a tactical buying window. Once the market gains clarity on the volume and timing of state stock disposal — and as heat and monsoon risks come back into focus — basis levels for higher-calibre Kabuli types could firm again, especially relative to Mexican and Australian origins. The overall fundamental backdrop remains price supportive into the second half of 2026, even if short-term sentiment is temporarily heavy.

Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Importers in Europe/MENA: Use current soft Delhi values and NAFED-related weakness to secure Q3–Q4 coverage on a staggered basis, prioritising Indian 10–12 mm sizes where the discount to Mexico is widest.
• Indian millers and domestic users: Maintain hand-to-mouth buying until early auction results are visible, but be prepared to extend coverage quickly if NAFED clears volumes at or near current prices, signalling a short-lived dip.
• Producers and stockists in India: Avoid panic selling into the auction-driven weakness; the combination of lower imports, tight substitutes and weather risk argues for holding back a portion of stocks for post-auction recovery.
• Speculative participants: Look for signs of stabilization in Delhi spot and auction metrics before initiating fresh long positions, targeting a medium-term rebound rather than chasing immediate volatility.

3-Day Directional Outlook (Key Regions)

• Delhi domestic spot (Desi chana): Slightly lower to sideways over the next 3 days as sentiment remains cautious ahead of NAFED sales.
• Indian export FOB New Delhi (Kabuli 10–12 mm): Largely steady in EUR terms; minor softness possible but constrained by limited import competition and solid export interest.
• Mexican FOB offers (large Kabuli): Firm to slightly higher, supported by their premium positioning and relatively tighter availability versus Indian medium calibres.