Indian Mustard Seed Prices Ease Slightly as Heatwave Caps Near‑Term Demand

Indian mustard seed export prices out of New Delhi are edging lower in mid‑May, with both yellow and brown grades showing small week‑on‑week declines in EUR terms, even as domestic mandi prices in Rajasthan stay comfortably above MSP. A combination of strong spot values in key mandis like Jaipur, still‑solid all‑India arrivals, and a severe heat spell across Rajasthan, Delhi and neighbouring regions is tempering crushing and fresh buying interest. Domestic demand at elevated price levels is showing signs of fatigue, while export parity remains broadly workable for buyers in Europe and the Middle East at current FOB indications. In the very near term, the balance of factors points to a mildly soft to sideways tone, rather than a deep correction.

Prices & Spreads

New Delhi export offers converted to EUR (using ~€1 = ₹90) indicate:

In the domestic Rajasthan market, recent mandi data show Jaipur mustard around ₹6,650–6,862/qtl (≈€0.74–0.76/kg), clearly above the MSP of ₹6,200/qtl and confirming a still‑firm internal floor despite the modest softening seen in export‑oriented New Delhi offers.

Supply, Arrivals & Demand

Fresh reports from Indian mandi platforms highlight that mustard prices in several Rajasthan markets, and even Mumbai, have recently traded significantly above MSP, with some premium lots reported near ₹9,500/qtl. This strength is largely attributed to limited arrivals of clean, dry, high‑quality seed and robust demand for such grades.

At the same time, wholesale data from Jaipur point to stable prices in the mid‑₹6,000s per quintal, suggesting that while there is no acute shortage, arrivals are not heavy enough to pressure the market lower. Domestic crushers are reportedly more selective at these elevated levels, slowing purchases when offers spike, which aligns with the slight easing in export quotes from New Delhi.

Weather & Crop Conditions (IN)

The India Meteorological Department has issued repeated heatwave alerts for Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana and parts of northwest India into mid‑May, with maximum temperatures widely approaching or exceeding 45°C. In the short term, this mostly affects logistics, mandi operating hours and labour availability, rather than the current mustard crop, which is already harvested.

However, intense heat is likely to discourage daytime arrivals and limit farmer selling, supporting mandi prices in Rajasthan in the immediate term. Weather commentary for May also points to prospects of above‑normal rainfall for large parts of India later in the month, which, if realised, could ease temperatures and normalise market operations without materially changing near‑term mustard seed supply.

Market Fundamentals & External Context

Recent edible oil market updates noted that earlier this week mustard seed prices in Kota firmed on stronger demand linked to higher imported soft oil prices, before stabilising as buyers resisted further increases. This dynamic underscores the link between mustard seed values and the broader veg‑oil complex: when imported oils rise, crushers can better afford higher seed prices; when margins narrow, seed demand softens quickly.

India’s broader export basket, including agricultural products, continues to show resilience, with official data highlighting robust overall goods export growth in April 2026. For mustard seed and oil, this translates into continued interest from importers, but also means that Indian sellers are increasingly disciplined on price, especially for high‑spec sortex grades, helping keep FOB New Delhi offers firm in EUR even as they edge a cent lower week on week.

3‑Day Price Outlook (Key Indian Hubs)

• Jaipur (mandi, Rajasthan, INR → EUR): With heatwave‑curbed arrivals and prices already above MSP, local mandi values around €0.74–0.76/kg are likely to trade sideways with a mild firm bias over the next three days.
• New Delhi export offers (FOB, EUR): Yellow and brown sortex grades near €0.69–0.98/kg are expected to remain in a narrow band, with downside limited by strong domestic mandi floors and upside capped by tepid overseas buying at higher levels.
• Other North India mandis (e.g. Kota, Najafgarh): Recent readings in the mid‑₹6,500–7,250/qtl range suggest a similar sideways pattern, with intraday volatility driven more by heat‑related logistics disruptions than by fundamental shifts in supply.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Spot buyers (crushers, millers): Use the current slight dip in New Delhi FOB offers versus earlier May to secure near‑term coverage, but avoid chasing aggressive premiums for high‑grade lots while heatwave‑related disruptions keep arrivals thin.
• Exporters: With domestic mandis still well above MSP yet below the extreme highs reported in a few premium markets, maintain offers but consider small price incentives for larger volumes to capture demand from Europe and the Middle East before any broader softening in the veg‑oil complex.
• Producers & stockists: In Rajasthan and neighbouring states, the combination of strong mandi floors and heat‑constrained arrivals argues for staggered selling over the coming week rather than heavy liquidation in the next few days.