Indian Organic Cassia FOB New Delhi Holds Steady Amid Cool April Weather

Indian organic cassia whole FOB New Delhi is trading flat around EUR 5.55/kg, with no visible week‑on‑week change and limited spot liquidity. Buyers remain cautious but present, while exporters report stable offers and modest inquiry from Europe and South Asia. Indian spice exports remain structurally strong, yet cassia and cinnamon are not seeing the same volatility as seed spices in early 2026. A rare cool and wet spell in Delhi and North India has temporarily eased heat stress, but forecasts point to a gradual warming trend into mid‑April, keeping weather risk low for already‑harvested bark crops. In this environment, cassia prices are more driven by export demand, freight and currency than by immediate weather or crop shocks.

Prices & Market Tone

FOB New Delhi offers for organic whole cassia from India are broadly unchanged on a weekly and monthly basis, around EUR 5.55/kg equivalent. The flat curve over the past four weeks suggests a balanced market where neither exporters nor importers are under pressure to adjust levels aggressively.

Liquidity is described as moderate: overseas buyers are covering nearby needs, but there is little evidence of forward booking rush despite generally firm spice export conditions from India. With no major fresh policy shock or logistics disruption reported over the past three days, price consolidation is the dominant theme.

Supply, Demand & Weather Context

India remains a key node in the global cinnamon/cassia trade, both as an origin and as a processing and re‑export hub, supported by more than 5,000 active spice exporters nationwide. Structural policy initiatives, such as Uttarakhand’s new decade‑long aromatic crops strategy that highlights cinnamon as a focus crop, underline the medium‑term ambition to scale production and value‑addition rather than any imminent shortage.

Near term, there is no indication of a sudden cassia supply shock in India over the last three days. A recent note on Indian seed spices points to lower 2026 output in several crops, but this has not yet spilled over into cassia pricing. On the demand side, Indian spices continue to benefit from strong export momentum, though current cassia trade flows appear orderly rather than overheated.

Weather Watch: North India (IN)

Delhi and parts of North India experienced an unusually cool and wet spell in early April, with maximum temperatures dropping about 7°C below normal and widespread rain and hail under a western disturbance. This off‑season rain briefly brought April temperatures down to the high‑20s °C, well below the typical mid‑30s.

However, the latest forecasts now point to a steady warming trend, with Delhi’s maximum temperature expected to climb towards the upper‑30s °C by mid‑April as the western disturbance weakens and dry conditions re‑establish. For cassia, which is harvested in other Indian regions and is not in a critical phenological stage right now, these swings are not materially impacting supply; at most, they slightly ease immediate heat‑related logistics stress around New Delhi.

Key Fundamentals (EUR)

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Bias: Mildly sideways to firm. With no fresh bearish supply news and India’s broader spice export story remaining positive, downside from current FOB levels looks limited in the very near term.
• For buyers: Consider covering Q2 spot and part of Q3 needs at current flat levels, especially for organic specs, while keeping some flexibility for potential policy‑driven or freight‑related moves later in the year.
• For sellers: Continue to offer in small tranches near current prices rather than chasing higher levels; use any uptick in global cinnamon/cassia sentiment as an opportunity to lock in forward sales.
• Risk factors: A shift in global weather patterns linked to the ongoing strong El Niño, or sudden spikes in freight and container costs, could tighten cassia availability and support prices faster than fundamentals alone imply.

3‑Day Directional Price View (IN)