Indian Peanut Market Firms on Tight Old Stocks and Weather Risk

Groundnut prices in India are set to remain firm and could still gain further before the new crop arrives, as tight old-crop stocks and delayed sowing keep spot supplies constrained. The Indian peanut market is trading at elevated levels heading into the 2026/27 kharif marketing year. Limited old-crop availability, reduced planted area and an erratic monsoon have tightened nearby balances, while demand from processors and packers remains steady. Recent rainfall has supported field work, but sowing in key states such as Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh started late and the production outlook depends heavily on August–September precipitation. Until substantial new-crop arrivals from late September and October, traders are likely to face procurement challenges and a generally firm price environment.

Prices

Domestic groundnut kernel prices in key producing regions are currently around USD 1,044–1,096 per tonne in Madhya Pradesh and roughly USD 1,127–1,148 per tonne in Rajasthan, with graded and packed material trading closer to USD 1,138–1,252 per tonne. Converted at approximately 1.1 USD/EUR, this implies an indicative range of about EUR 950–1,140 per tonne for bulk kernels and up to around EUR 1,140–1,140 per tonne for higher-quality, packed lots.

Export and forward indications corroborate this firm tone. Recent offers show Indian bold and Java peanuts mostly between about EUR 0.95 and 1.20 per kg FOB/FCA equivalent, depending on count and quality, while Brazilian raw peanuts are indicated near EUR 1.15–1.20 per kg FOB. These values have been broadly stable over July, reflecting already high price levels and the absence of significant selling pressure from growers or stockists.

Supply & Demand

Normal-season groundnut production for 2024 had been estimated at roughly 13–13.5 million tonnes, but combined kharif and rabi output fell to around 9 million tonnes in the subsequent cycle. With planted area reportedly lower again this year, the upcoming harvest is widely expected to remain below normal levels. Old-crop stocks across major producing markets are tight, and neither farmers nor stockists are offering large volumes at current prices.

At the same time, demand from processors, oil mills and packers remains active. Wholesale arrivals into mandis are limited, and the market is not seeing the heavy selling that would typically cap prices ahead of a new crop. This imbalance is already reflected in the elevated spot levels and underpins expectations that prices may rise by a further ~USD 100 (≈ EUR 90) per tonne before the new crop becomes available in volume.

Weather & Crop Outlook

The 2026 southwest monsoon arrived late over several key groundnut belts, delaying sowing in parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Official updates indicate that kharif sowing nationwide is lagging last year, with authorities explicitly flagging weather-related risks for rainfed crops such as groundnut. In Gujarat, early-July data showed below-normal kharif coverage and highlighted delayed monsoon onset as a major factor.

More recently, the monsoon has advanced across the country and intermittent rains have supported field operations, but totals remain uneven and model guidance still warns of periods of subdued rainfall over parts of northwest and west-central India. Over the next 1–2 weeks, forecasts point to scattered to locally heavy showers in west Madhya Pradesh, south Rajasthan and east Gujarat, which should aid crop establishment but also keep yield outcomes highly dependent on August–September moisture distribution.

Fundamentals & Risks

• Production risk: Reduced acreage and a late, variable monsoon raise the probability that 2026/27 groundnut output stays below trend, particularly in Gujarat and Rajasthan where rainfed area is large.
• Stock tightness: Limited carryover from the last two seasons leaves little buffer against weather shocks. With old-crop availability already thin, any further supply disruption will transmit quickly into prices.
• Steady consumption: Food and snack demand has been resilient, and groundnut oil remains competitively priced within the edible oil basket. Without a demand shock, balancing the market will rely mainly on production outcomes and trade flows.
• Trade flows & competitors: Brazil and other exporters are offering at similar or slightly higher EUR values, capping import relief for deficit buyers and helping to anchor the global price floor.

Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 4–6 weeks): Bias remains to the upside, with scope for another EUR 80–100 per tonne increase in Indian kernel values if rainfall disappoints in August or if arrivals stay thin ahead of the new harvest.
• For buyers: Consider staggering coverage through August with a mix of spot and short-dated forward purchases, prioritising key grades (bold 40–50, Java 50–60) to mitigate supply risk before main arrivals from late September.
• For sellers: Farmers and stockists with physical inventory can hold a moderately bullish stance but should predefine target levels to start scaling in sales, as a normalising monsoon in September could cap further gains.
• Risk focus: Monitor high-frequency monsoon updates for Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh; a sustained improvement in rainfall and sowing progress would justify a more neutral stance, while renewed dryness would reinforce the current bull trend.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR-based)

• India – Gujarat (bold kernels, FOB): Firm to slightly higher; limited arrivals and ongoing weather uncertainty point to a modest upward bias.
• India – New Delhi (Java/bold mix, FOB/FCA): Mostly steady at elevated levels, with a mild upside skew if local demand from processors intensifies.
• Brazil – raw peanuts (FOB): Stable in EUR terms, with movements mainly driven by currency fluctuations rather than fundamentals over the very short term.