Indian Peanut Prices Edge Higher on Heat, Early Sowing and Firm Domestic Demand

Indian peanut prices are grinding higher, supported by tight farm stocks, very hot weather in key belts and steady domestic demand, while export parity remains only mildly attractive. Indian peanut markets in Gujarat and New Delhi are showing a modest but broad-based uptick across bold and java grades, with FCA values up roughly 1.5–2.0% over the last week in euro terms. Very hot pre-monsoon conditions in Gujarat and North India are tightening near-term supply as farmers hold limited old-crop stocks and only early Kharif sowing has begun. At the same time, mandi prices for groundnut in coastal Gujarat remain well above MSP, indicating ongoing buying interest from crushers and traders. With the 2026 monsoon expected to be weaker than normal, the market is starting to price a weather risk premium into forward values.

Prices & Spreads

All prices approximate, converted to EUR/mt using recent FX.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Domestic supply in India is in a seasonal low between rabi marketing and full-scale Kharif sowing. In Gujarat, official data show groundnut modal prices in key mandis such as Gondal and Porbandar trading well above MSP in early June, signalling firm demand from crushers and traders despite limited arrivals.

Early Kharif field activity has started in Gujarat, where farmers have begun advance sowing of Kharif crops on around 26,000 hectares, including nearly 8,000 hectares under groundnut. While this points to a timely start, the overall monsoon outlook for 2026 is cautious, with forecasts suggesting one of the weakest monsoon seasons in a decade, particularly impacting oilseeds like groundnut. This risk backdrop supports a weather premium in forward pricing and encourages nearby buying from domestic users.

On the export side, India continues to position itself as a key supplier of groundnuts to markets such as the EU and Asia. Recent updates from India’s export promotion authorities highlight ongoing efforts to support peanut exports and maintain quality through platforms like the PEANUT.NET traceability system, which underpins buyer confidence in Indian origin. With Indian merchandise exports broadly rising year on year, logistics and port flows remain fluid, reducing the risk of shipment delays.

Weather & Crop Conditions (India – Focus IN)

In Gujarat, pre-monsoon showers in early June brought a temporary drop in temperatures in parts of the state, but conditions have since reverted to intense heat. Forecasts for the next three days indicate very hot and mostly dry conditions, with maximum temperatures around 44–45°C and warm nights, keeping soil moisture low and raising evapotranspiration. This delays any widespread planting momentum beyond irrigated pockets and can stress residual standing crops.

New Delhi and adjoining North Indian peanut trading hubs are also experiencing persistent heat, with daytime highs projected around 39–42°C over the coming three days under hazy, mostly sunny skies. While this does not directly affect production, it slows logistics and handling, reinforcing the preference for quick turnarounds in physical trade. At the macro level, concerns that the 2026 monsoon may be among the weakest in a decade are particularly relevant for oilseeds like groundnut, as any rainfall deficit during June–July sowing could trim area or yield expectations and tighten the medium-term balance.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Firm mandi prices: Groundnut modal prices in coastal Gujarat mandis such as Veraval and Porbandar remain comfortably above MSP, confirming strong underlying demand for seed and crushing, and supporting higher kernel and export offers.
• Early but weather-risky sowing: Advance sowing in Gujarat suggests farmer confidence, but the broader monsoon forecast warns of below-normal rainfall, leaving yields and final area exposed to June–July precipitation patterns.
• Export competitiveness: Indian FOB offers retain a discount to Brazilian origin, even after freight, and ongoing export promotion efforts help sustain flows into quality-conscious markets such as Germany and the wider EU.
• Macro and heatwave backdrop: Stronger overall merchandise exports and recurrent heat events across India underline stable external demand and potential supply-side constraints, together favouring a mildly bullish price structure into early Kharif.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Short-term bias: Slightly bullish for Indian bold and java kernels given firm domestic demand, heat-limited arrivals and monsoon uncertainty.
• For crushers / domestic buyers: Consider covering immediate–July requirements on dips, especially for bold 40–60 counts ex-Gujarat and New Delhi, as mandi support and heat conditions limit downside.
• For exporters: Maintain selective forward sales into EU and Middle East for high-quality bold and java grades while monitoring monsoon onset; retain some upside flexibility in case of further weather-led tightening.
• For importers (EU/Asia): Near-term coverage with Indian origin remains attractive versus Brazil; stagger purchases over June to average potential weather-driven volatility.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction, EUR)

• Gujarat – Gondal (IN, FCA bold 40–50): Current around €1,040/mt; bias: steady to +€10 over the next three days on strong local mandi prices and very hot, largely dry weather limiting arrivals.
• New Delhi (IN, FCA bold 50–60 & java 50–60): Current around €1,060–1,200/mt; bias: steady to +€10–15 as heat persists and domestic snack demand stays firm, with exporters cautiously bidding for quality lots.
• India FOB West Coast (bold 50–60): Current around €1,050/mt; bias: steady to slightly firmer, tracking inland kernels and supported by stable export interest into Europe and Asia.