Indian Peanut Prices Edge Up on Heat, Firm Demand and Comfortable Stocks

Indian peanut prices are mildly firmer in Gujarat and Delhi, supported by strong domestic and export demand against comfortable but not burdensome supplies, while extreme heat in key regions adds a short‑term weather risk rather than a structural bullish shift.

In Gujarat mandis, average groundnut prices are hovering around INR 6,650–6,730/quintal, indicating a broadly steady to slightly firmer tone versus early April. Wholesale levels in other major states cluster in a similar band, confirming that India’s groundnut complex is well supported but not overheated. At the same time, global data suggest rising world peanut production in 2025/26, including higher Indian output, which should cap any sharp rally. Extremely hot and hazy conditions in Gujarat and New Delhi over the next three days may briefly slow arrivals and support spot prices, but comfortable local stocks and steady crusher offtake are likely to keep the market in a narrow range.

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📈 Prices & Spreads

Domestic spot groundnut in Gujarat is quoted around INR 6,650–6,730/quintal this week, with the state average reported near INR 6,653/quintal on 14 April and around INR 6,734/quintal on 8 April, underscoring a stable to slightly firm bias.  Junagadh APMC bold groundnut quotes near INR 6,750/quintal confirm that premium centres are holding a modest quality spread over the state average. 

Against this mandi backdrop, export/processor-level offers from Gujarat (bold 40–50, FCA Gondal) and New Delhi (bold and java grades, FCA/FOB) converted to EUR cluster roughly in the EUR 1.00–1.30/kg band, with bold grades at the lower end and java and roasted splits at the upper end. These levels are broadly in line with global indications published in recent international peanut market updates, which show Indian bold 40–50 FOB Gujarat slightly below earlier March levels, consistent with increased crop availability. 

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

Recent national outlooks point to solid Indian groundnut output for 2025/26, with India’s total supply projected to rise from 7.41 to about 7.86 million tonnes year-on-year, while ending stocks also tick higher.  Earlier reports from Gujarat already highlighted robust rabi sowing growth versus last year, reinforcing expectations of comfortable regional supply through mid-2026, even as the current marketing window (March–May) coincides with peak arrivals in many mandis. 

On the demand side, domestic crushing for edible oil remains steady, supported by structurally strong vegetable oil consumption and competitive groundnut oil pricing relative to some imported soft oils. Export flows of peanuts and peanut oil from India have been underpinned by Asian demand, especially from China, which has sharply increased oilmeal and vegetable oilmeal imports from India since last year, signalling a broader pull for Indian oilseed products including peanuts and derivatives.  The recently concluded India–EU FTA, while still at an early implementation stage, is expected to gradually improve access for Indian agri-exports, including groundnuts, into European snack and confectionery markets over the medium term. 

📊 Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the Indian peanut balance sheet for 2025/26 shows modest production growth and slightly higher ending stocks both domestically and globally, implying that supply is adequate to meet current demand trajectories.  In Gujarat, where peak arrivals usually occur between October–December and again April–June, current price stability suggests that increased flows are being absorbed without major bottlenecks. 

Weather-wise, the next three days bring very hot, hazy conditions in Gujarat, with daytime highs around 40–44°C, and similar heat over New Delhi (about 40–41°C).  While the crop is largely harvested in key belts, such heat can disrupt transport and labour availability, marginally slowing mandi arrivals and loading operations. This tends to provide short-term support to spot prices, particularly for higher-quality bold and java lots, but the effect is typically transient when underlying stocks and demand are well balanced.

📆 Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Domestic buyers (mills and shellers): Use minor intraday dips to secure coverage for May–June, prioritising bold 40–50 and 50–60 grades where price risk seems limited by strong local and export demand.
• Exporters (edible and confectionery): With comfortable Indian supply and firm but not excessive prices, consider layering forward sales into Asia and the EU while the EUR-denominated offers around EUR 1.00–1.30/kg remain competitive versus alternate origins.
• Producers and stockists: Given higher projected national and global stocks, upside beyond modest weather- or logistics-driven spikes looks capped; gradual scale-up selling on rallies is advisable rather than holding out for sharp price surges.

📍 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR, Directional)

Region / Grade	Market Basis*	Indicative Level (EUR/kg)	3‑Day Bias
Gujarat – Gondal, bold 40–50	FCA ex-warehouse	≈ 1.02	Slightly firm on heat, within narrow band
New Delhi, bold 50–60	FCA	≈ 1.01	Steady to marginally firm on logistics constraints
New Delhi, java 60–70	FCA	≈ 1.01	Soft but stabilising after recent correction

*All price indications are approximate FCA equivalents in EUR and reflect current market structure in India; short-term moves are expected to stay within a tight ±2–3% band barring sudden policy or weather shocks.

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