Indian Raisin Prices Edge Higher Into Peak Festive Demand

Indian raisin export prices out of New Delhi are edging moderately higher into the Diwali and wedding season, supported by strong domestic demand and tight but stable supply from Maharashtra’s key drying belt. A below‑normal monsoon in October, followed by only patchy early‑November showers in grape districts, has limited new weather damage and kept quality largely intact, while also capping yield prospects for the coming drying cycle. At the same time, higher import costs for dry fruits more broadly and competitive offers from Turkey and China are shaping buyer behaviour but have not yet capped the firm tone in Indian raisins. Overall, the near‑term outlook is for firm to slightly rising prices as buyers secure coverage for Q4 confectionery and gifting demand.

Prices

FOB New Delhi export prices for Indian raisins show a modest upward trend into early November 2026, with higher gains in table‑quality grades than in bird‑feed material. Festive and wedding demand in India between September and November remains at its seasonal peak, typically delivering the sharpest price climb of the marketing year.

Grade‑AA New Delhi raisins are up by around 0.02 EUR versus the last quotation, while bird‑feed Malayar remains flat, indicating firm demand for higher‑quality grades versus relatively balanced feed demand. Indian wholesale mandi data from Sangli and Tasgaon show domestic dry grape prices holding at elevated levels through late October, underpinning export offers.

Global reference prices remain competitive but broadly stable: Turkish sultana export offers have fallen significantly versus last season due to a strong 2026/27 crop and aggressive early exports, while Chinese and Chilean origins continue to target EU buyers on price. This global backdrop caps the upside for Indian raisins but, given current domestic demand, has not yet translated into downward pressure ex‑India.

Supply & Demand

India’s raisin supply is dominated by Maharashtra’s Sangli–Tasgaon and Nashik belts, where nearly the entire crop is dried between February and April. This front‑loaded calendar means that post‑April price formation is driven mainly by stock holding and demand rather than fresh arrivals.

Recent mandi data from Sangli show modal raisin prices in October well above long‑term averages, reflecting both reduced availability from earlier drought stress and robust pre‑Diwali buying by sweet makers and packers. On the demand side, retail dry fruit prices in India have been under pressure from higher import costs linked to West Asia shipping risks, with raisins cited among the categories facing persistent inflation into the 2026 festive season.

Internationally, Turkey has entered 2026/27 with stronger exports and lower average prices year‑on‑year, contributing to ample global availability of sultanas and standard seedless raisins. However, logistics lead times and quality preferences mean Indian buyers still lean heavily on domestic Sangli/Nashik supply for the current festive and winter wedding season.

Weather & Crop Conditions (India – Region IN)

For Maharashtra, where most Indian raisins originate, October 2026 rainfall was reported at around 95% below normal in many districts, and drought has already been officially declared in over 300 talukas based on kharif conditions. This has restricted grapevine growth and likely constrained potential berry size for the next drying season, tightening the forward supply outlook.

Early November brought a brief spell of unseasonal light to moderate rain and thunderstorms, with yellow alerts issued for parts of south and central Maharashtra on 3–4 November. IMD’s five‑day outlook indicates only isolated showers, turning largely dry by 6 November, while the November climate outlook points to below‑normal rain and above‑normal maximum temperatures over most of India.

This pattern—prolonged dryness punctuated by short unseasonal showers—raises disease and cracking risks if rain coincides with bunch development later in the season, but for now the main effect is to limit soil moisture and push growers to prioritise irrigation. Medium‑term, this combination suggests no meaningful loosening of Indian raisin supply for the 2027 drying window unless monsoon conditions improve.

Fundamentals & Drivers

• Domestic demand: Festive and wedding‑season consumption (September–November) is at its annual peak, historically delivering the sharpest price increases as wholesalers build stocks for sweets, bakery and gifting.
• Stocks and arrivals: With the main drying season long past and drought‑affected kharif conditions, physical stocks in the Sangli–Tasgaon belt appear tight, supporting higher bids for premium grades.
• Global competition: Turkish and Chinese sultanas are currently offered at relatively attractive dollar‑denominated prices, but currency, freight and quality preferences limit substitution in the very short term.
• Macro & logistics: Higher freight and risk premia on West Asia routes are feeding through into India’s broader dry fruit import basket, reinforcing inflation expectations among retailers and encouraging earlier stock coverage.

3‑Day Outlook & Trading View (Region IN)

Weather, 7–9 November 2026 (Maharashtra grape belt): IMD and regional advisories point to isolated light showers at most over parts of Nashik and south Madhya Maharashtra early in the period, turning predominantly dry thereafter, with temperatures near to slightly above seasonal norms. Weather should therefore have limited immediate impact on raisin stocks or short‑term quality.

Price direction, 3‑day view (India, FOB New Delhi): With domestic festive demand still strong and no fresh supply shock, New Delhi FOB prices for black, brown and golden grade‑AA raisins are likely to remain firm to mildly higher over the next three days. Bird‑feed Malayar raisins are expected to trade broadly sideways given more balanced feed‑sector buying.

• Buyers (importers, large packers): Consider securing near‑term coverage for Q4 needs at current Indian FOB levels, especially for golden and brown grade‑AA, as festive demand and tight stocks argue for limited downside in November.
• Domestic traders: Maintain a moderately long bias in premium grades; any short‑lived dip triggered by profit‑taking or global competition could be used to add length ahead of the winter wedding season.
• Industrial users: Evaluate partial diversification into competitively priced Turkish or Chinese sultanas for standard applications, while relying on Indian supply where flavour profile or origin is critical.

Across the main Indian reference point (FOB New Delhi), export prices should therefore hold a firm to slightly bullish tone through the next few sessions, barring an abrupt shift in domestic buying or global freight conditions.