Indian Sesame Edges Higher on Firm Export Interest and Cautious Monsoon Watch

Indian sesame prices are grinding higher in mid-July, supported by steady export interest and firmer hulled quotes, while buyers remain alert to monsoon progress and kharif sowing in key oilseed belts. Export-grade sesame from New Delhi is showing modest week‑on‑week gains across most natural and hulled specifications, even as all‑India monsoon rains remain below normal and sowing of kharif oilseeds started with a delay. Recent July showers have partly reduced the seasonal rainfall deficit, but the India Meteorological Department (IMD) now flags a subdued rain phase over central and peninsular India, keeping yield and acreage risks on the table. With Delhi weather forecast to stay hot, humid and largely dry through 16 July, near‑term arrivals are unlikely to surge, and FOB values are expected to remain under mild upward pressure.

Prices

All prices converted from USD to EUR at 1 EUR = 1.10 USD (approximate).

Indicative average export price references put Indian sesame around EUR 1.85/kg (US$2.04/kg) at national level in early July, marginally lower year‑on‑year but broadly aligned with the firmer New Delhi FOB curve.

Supply & Demand

India entered the 2026 kharif season with a sizeable monsoon rainfall deficit and delayed sowing across major crops, including oilseeds. Recent July rains have reduced the all‑India deficit, but IMD and government bulletins still highlight uneven distribution and caution that oilseed planting remains behind a normal year in several regions.

Agrometeorological advisories note that sesame sowing can extend into mid‑July in upland, well‑drained fields, underlining that acreage is still in flux and highly sensitive to short‑term rainfall patterns. In parts of eastern India, authorities are already advising harvest and safe storage of early sesame pods where heavy rains have occurred, while in Gujarat and Odisha farmers are urged to postpone kharif sowing until waterlogging risks ease, pointing to regionally mixed prospects.

On the demand side, global sesame import prices in Asia show India remaining competitive versus regional suppliers, with Indian offers near the middle of the price pack against China, Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Robust export appetite from snack, oil and bakery industries, especially in Asia, continues to underpin Indian FOB values, even as some buyers stagger purchases amid macro uncertainty and currency volatility.

Weather & Crop Conditions – India (Region: IN)

IMD city‑level forecasts for New Delhi indicate maximum temperatures around 37–39°C and minimums near 28–30°C between 14 and 16 July, with high humidity and only isolated thunderstorm chances. This implies limited rain‑induced disruptions to logistics but also little short‑term relief for soil moisture in the northern plains.

Nationally, IMD’s latest guidance flags subdued rainfall over northwest, central and south peninsular India during the coming 6–7 days, following an early‑July wet spell. While surplus July precipitation has narrowed the seasonal monsoon deficit, overall rains remain below long‑term averages in several oilseed belts. This keeps yield risk tilted modestly to the downside for late‑sown sesame unless rainfall normalises in late July.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Price momentum: New Delhi FCA and FOB sesame quotes have risen by roughly EUR 0.01–0.03/kg over the past week across main white natural and hulled grades, reflecting tight farmer selling and steady export interest.
• Weather‑linked supply risk: A still‑significant monsoon deficit and patchy rains keep upside risks to prices if acreage or yield underperform expectations in late July–August.
• Global competitiveness: International benchmarks show Indian sesame priced competitively against major Asian origins, supporting destination demand even as some buyers time purchases carefully.
• Macro & logistics: No major new disruptions are reported in Indian ports; however, global freight and energy costs remain exposed to wider geopolitical risks, keeping a small risk premium in forward offers.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Importers (EU/Middle East/Asia): Consider covering near‑term needs on current New Delhi FOB levels for standard hulled and natural grades, as short‑term downside appears limited while monsoon uncertainty persists.
• Indian exporters: Maintain slightly firmer offer ideas for high‑purity hulled and black sesame, but stay flexible on prompt shipment discounts to capture demand during low‑rain logistics windows.
• Domestic buyers (India): Stagger purchases over the next 2–3 weeks; a meaningful improvement in rainfall by late July could ease forward tightness, but any renewed monsoon weakness may quickly lift prices.

3‑Day Directional Price View (New Delhi, India)

• White natural & standard hulled (FCA/FOB): Mildly firmer bias over 14–16 July, with potential gains of around EUR 0.01–0.02/kg as sellers test higher levels amid firm export interest and limited immediate crop pressure.
• Premium hulled & organic grades (FOB): Stable to slightly firmer; quality‑conscious buyers likely to accept small premiums given constrained high‑purity availability.
• Black sesame (regular & Z‑grades): Mostly steady; modest support from niche export demand but less aggressive buying than in whites, implying a narrow trading range.