Indian Sesame FOB New Delhi edges higher as weak monsoon clouds 2026 crop

Indian sesame FOB prices in New Delhi are grinding higher, supported by delayed kharif oilseed sowing and firmer exporter interest, while short‑term demand from key buyers remains only moderate. Weather risks around the 2026/27 crop are slowly being priced in, keeping the near‑term bias mildly bullish. Indian sesame markets start July with a modest uptrend across hulled EU‑grade grades, building on gains since late June as exporters secure coverage ahead of clearer visibility on kharif acreage. The backdrop is a still‑underperforming southwest monsoon and sharply lagging all‑India oilseed sowing, which raise concerns about 2026/27 sesame seed availability. At the same time, there is no sign yet of panic buying from major destinations such as China or the Middle East, tempering the rally. Over the next few days, local weather turns somewhat wetter over parts of Rajasthan and central India, but not enough to fully dispel supply risk. Overall, the market looks better supported on breaks than a month ago.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR at approx. 1 EUR = 1.08 USD.

Domestic and export market indications suggest Indian sesame remains competitive versus the broader global range of roughly EUR 1.67–3.52/kg (USD 1.80–3.80/kg) depending on origin and quality, keeping India well placed in mainstream white and hulled segments.

Supply, demand and trade flows

India enters the 2026/27 season with kharif sowing materially delayed. Recent government and media assessments show overall kharif acreage down about 21–23% year on year as of early July, with oilseeds among the hardest hit. This raises downside risk for sesame output, a largely rain‑fed kharif crop in states such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and parts of Gujarat.

While detailed, crop‑specific sesame sowing data are not yet available for 2026/27, the broad oilseed shortfall implies tighter potential exportable surplus if rainfall does not normalise quickly. Trade sources note Indian sesame exports fell earlier this year amid softer demand and competition from Africa, but the current price firmness reflects expectations that buyers, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, may return more aggressively should crop prospects deteriorate.

Weather and crop outlook – India

The southwest monsoon started 2026 with a pronounced deficit, with all‑India rainfall running about 40% below normal at the end of June. Since then, heavier July showers have narrowed the deficit to around 17–20%, yet kharif sowing remains roughly 21% below last year and oilseed area is still down close to 40%.

Seven‑day forecasts for key sesame belts in Rajasthan, such as Rajsamand district, point to scattered showers with several days of light to moderate rain, interspersed with hotter, drier spells. This pattern helps germination where planting has occurred but is not enough on its own to erase earlier moisture deficits. With El Niño conditions in the Pacific still in focus, analysts warn that July–August rainfall distribution will be decisive for final oilseed yields and sesame seed availability.

Fundamentals and price drivers

• Firming Indian basis: New Delhi hulled EU‑grade sesame has risen roughly EUR 0.05–0.06/kg since early July, reflecting weather‑related supply risk and some forward export coverage.
• Oilseed sowing shock: Preliminary numbers indicate oilseed area down nearly 40% year on year as of early July, a key bullish structural input if rains fail to fully recover.
• Demand still measured: Recent commentary suggests international demand for Indian sesame has been subdued in early 2026, but global reference prices in the USD 1.80–3.80/kg band mean India remains attractive for value‑oriented buyers.
• Input and currency context: Stable to slightly softer logistics and freight conditions from India, combined with only modest rupee volatility, are currently amplifying the feed‑through of weather and acreage news into FOB price levels.

Short‑term forecast and trading outlook

Given the mixed monsoon outlook and still‑lagging oilseed sowing, the near‑term sesame bias from India is cautiously bullish. Weather over Rajasthan and central India in the next week is likely to improve moisture but not fully repair the season’s early deficit, keeping risk premia embedded in New Delhi FOB offers.

• Importers (EU, Middle East, Asia): Consider scaling into coverage on shallow dips, targeting nearby shipments while maintaining flexibility for Q4 2026 as monsoon clarity improves.
• Indian exporters: Use current firmness to secure forward sales but avoid over‑committing volume until clearer guidance on August rainfall and kharif acreage emerges.
• Industrial users (oil, tahini, snacks): Lock in a portion of 3–6‑month needs at present levels, as upside risk from a persistently weak monsoon outweighs near‑term downside from lacklustre demand.

3‑day directional price view (FOB New Delhi, sesame, EUR/kg)

• Hulled sesame, EU‑grade (99.95–99.98%): Slightly firmer bias; expected range ≈ 1.46–1.51 EUR/kg over the next three days, assuming no major monsoon or policy surprise.
• Natural white sesame: Stable to marginally higher; better quality parcels likely to follow hulled values with a mild premium.
• Black sesame (regular & premium): Stable; niche demand and already higher absolute prices should limit short‑term volatility.