Indian Soybean Meal Exports Slump as Monsoon Risks Keep Soy Prices Supported

Indian soybean meal exports have dropped sharply this season, but tighter domestic soybean stocks and weather risks are preventing a major price correction. Global benchmarks remain under pressure from ample South American supplies, while India’s delayed monsoon adds a weather premium to regional values. India’s soybean complex is entering a delicate phase: export demand for meal has weakened markedly, yet processors are unable to cut bean prices aggressively because on-farm stocks are already below last year and the new kharif crop is threatened by uneven rainfall. At the same time, Brazil and Argentina are flooding the international market with competitively priced meal, capping any strong upside for Indian exporters. For now, prices are holding in a broad range, with volatility likely to rise in July–August as planting progress and monsoon performance become clearer.

Prices

Available spot indications show a broadly stable to slightly softer soybean complex in early July. Ukrainian GMO-free soybeans CPT Odesa are quoted around 0.40 EUR/kg, broadly flat over the past three weeks. U.S. No. 2 soybeans FOB (converted) are near 0.65 EUR/kg, having eased from early July levels, while Indian sortex-clean beans FOB New Delhi are about 0.89 EUR/kg, marginally below the start of the month. Chinese yellow soybeans, both conventional and organic, have firmed slightly, reflecting resilient Asian demand.

On the futures side, July 2026 CBOT soybeans are trading just under the equivalent of 440–445 EUR/t, close to recent lows as the market digests strong Brazilian exports and improving U.S. crop prospects. Basis levels in key export origins remain under pressure from abundant global supply, limiting upside for physical prices even as regional weather risks build.

Supply & Demand

India’s soybean meal exports between October 2025 and June 2026 have fallen by about 42% year on year to roughly 922,000 tonnes, from 1.59 million tonnes in the same period of the previous marketing season. The slump reflects weak international demand for Indian meal and intense price competition from Brazil and Argentina, where large crops and high crush rates are generating abundant exportable surpluses.

As a result, more soybean meal has stayed in the Indian domestic market, pressuring processing margins and limiting the ability of crushers to bid up for beans. At the same time, domestic soybean arrivals are estimated around 7.75 million tonnes so far this season, with crushing near 6.85 million tonnes and a modest balance used for seed and direct consumption. Estimated soybean stocks as of 1 July stand at about 2.99 million tonnes, down from roughly 3.49 million tonnes a year earlier, offering only moderate cushion before the new crop.

Globally, Brazil continues to dominate export flows, with projections for July 2026 soybean shipments being revised higher on the back of strong first-half exports and ample supplies. This, together with steady Argentine crush, is ensuring plentiful meal availability into key Asian and European destinations and weighing on international price benchmarks. For Indian exporters, this means that any recovery in meal shipments will hinge on improved price competitiveness and possibly a weaker rupee or lower freight rates rather than volume constraints at origin.

Fundamentals & Margins

The combination of weak export sales and increased domestic meal availability is putting clear pressure on Indian crush margins. With CBOT futures subdued and South American meal offers highly competitive, Indian processors are finding it difficult to pass through higher raw bean costs into export channels. This is constraining their capacity to pay significantly above current levels for soybeans, especially in inland regions.

However, the relatively lower stock position versus last year is acting as a counterweight. On-farm and commercial inventories below 3 million tonnes reduce the risk of a deep spot price correction, particularly as domestic demand for soybean oil and animal feed remains solid. Poultry and livestock sectors continue to absorb substantial volumes of meal, providing a base level of offtake even in the face of reduced export opportunities.

In export competitors, robust Brazilian crush and logistics performance are sustaining large flows of beans and meal, incentivized by currency competitiveness and strong external demand. This external backdrop helps anchor a ceiling over Indian FOB values, as buyers in Asia and Europe can readily switch to South American origins if Indian offers diverge too far from global benchmarks.

Weather & Planting Outlook

Weather developments during the current kharif season are the key swing factor for India’s soybean balance sheet. Planting has been delayed in several producing regions due to uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall, adding uncertainty around final acreage and yield potential. June 2026 rainfall over India was materially below the long-period average, and analysts note that July will be critical for both sowing and early crop establishment.

Recent updates from the India Meteorological Department show the southwest monsoon has advanced further into central and northern India, with expectations for fairly widespread rainfall in several northern states during early July. Yet cumulative monsoon performance remains patchy, and forecasts indicate that rainfall variability could persist across key oilseed-growing belts. This keeps production risks elevated: a normalisation of rains in late July–August would stabilize yield prospects, while a prolonged deficit could tighten 2026/27 supplies and support higher prices into the next marketing year.

Outside India, weather in the U.S. Midwest has generally been conducive for soybean development so far, contributing to expectations of at least average yields and reinforcing global supply comfort. In South America, the focus has shifted from old-crop logistics to planting intentions for the next campaign, but no major weather threats are currently priced into the market.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• Indian crushers and feed buyers: Use current range-bound prices to secure short- to medium-term coverage, but avoid over-hedging new-crop needs until greater clarity on July–August monsoon performance emerges. Monitor on-farm stock drawdown closely as a potential trigger for stronger basis.
• Importers in Asia and Europe: Continue to leverage competitive South American and U.S. offers for nearby shipments, while keeping an eye on any weather-driven rally in Indian and global values. Consider staggered purchasing to manage volatility around key crop and weather updates.
• Speculative participants: With fundamentals pointing to ample global supply but rising monsoon-related risks in India, a strategy of buying downside breaks near recent futures lows, with tight risk management, may be appropriate ahead of critical weather windows.

3-Day Directional Price Indication

• CBOT soybeans: Sideways to slightly weaker in the next three sessions, barring a significant weather or export-sales surprise.
• Black Sea / Ukraine (CPT/FOB Odesa): Largely stable in EUR terms, with minor pressure from global benchmarks but support from logistics and currency factors.
• India FOB (New Delhi): Mild downward bias as exporters struggle with competitiveness, though any sharp rupee move or monsoon deterioration could quickly change sentiment.