Indian Tur Tension Meets Softening Pea Values in Europe and the Black Sea

India’s imported tur (pigeon pea) market is testing the balance between firm African-origin offers and softer domestic prices, while European and Black Sea pea quotations drift lower on comfortable nearby availability. Pea and tur markets are increasingly intertwined as India leans on African-origin supplies amid uncertainty over its kharif tur crop. Import prices at Mumbai ports for African-origin tur remain firm on limited willingness to sell at lower levels, even as domestic tur has weakened in several key mandis. At the same time, UK and EU feed and human-consumption pea markets face a tighter domestic crop but currently soft spot prices, especially from Black Sea origins, as logistics and macro demand concerns keep a lid on values. How India’s crop outcome and import pull evolve will be decisive for pea trade flows into early 2027.

Prices

India’s tur complex is split: imported African-origin tur at Indian ports is described as stable to firm, supported by limited selling at lower price ideas, while certain domestic tur varieties are under pressure in centres such as Katni, Kanpur, Latur and Nagpur. This divergence underlines the premium for assured overseas supply amid crop uncertainty.

In the pea market, recent indications from our panel show a soft tone in European and Black Sea prices. In Odesa, Ukraine, dried yellow peas (98% purity, non-organic) are currently quoted at 0.16 EUR/kg FCA, and dried green peas (98% purity, non-organic) at 0.18 EUR/kg FCA (both last updated 15 October 2026). In London, UK-origin dried green peas are indicated at 0.94 EUR/kg FOB and marrowfat peas at 1.20 EUR/kg FOB (10 October 2026), both marginally below early-October levels.

Supply & Demand

In India, the tur market is in a price-discovery phase. African-origin imports remain a central pillar of supply, with traders closely watching shipment pace and landed costs. Domestic markets are sending mixed signals: softer prices at Katni, Kanpur, Latur and Nagpur point to near-term selling pressure, yet concerns over the forthcoming kharif tur crop—uncertain yields and harvest timing—are preventing a deeper correction.

Monsoon 2026 has been uneven, with overall rainfall below normal and deficits concentrated in parts of South and East India, regions important for pulses such as tur. This raises downside risk for yields even where acreage has held up, and market commentary already flags stress in some Maharashtra and Karnataka tur-growing belts. These uncertainties help explain why African-origin offers are holding value despite weaker domestic spot bids.

In Europe, the pea balance sheet appears tighter than headline global pulse supply might suggest. UK sources report that domestic pea production for the 2026 season reached only about 69% of target, implying reduced availability for both freezing and dry markets in the year ahead. Low carry-in stocks into 2026/27 further amplify the impact of this smaller harvest, even as current wholesale demand is seasonally moderate.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

For India, three variables dominate the outlook for tur and, by extension, imported peas and other pulses: final kharif tur production, the pace and cost of African-origin arrivals, and dal mill demand. If yield losses from the uneven monsoon and El Niño-related rainfall deficits are confirmed, India’s import requirement could stay elevated through early 2027. This would tighten regional availability of African-origin peas and tur, underpinning prices.

On the European side, UK and EU pea fundamentals are shaped by a disappointing 2026 harvest after a hot, weather-stressed summer, with some reports of below-average yields across arable crops. Despite this, current pea prices remain capped by broader macroeconomic headwinds, cautious buying from feed and food sectors, and competition from other proteins. The under-target UK pea crop and limited carry-in suggest that once pipeline stocks normalise, buyers could face a firmer market later in the season—especially for higher-quality green and marrowfat segments.

Weather Outlook (Key Regions)

In India, the main monsoon season has effectively ended, and attention shifts to late-season moisture conditions and harvesting windows for tur. Recent assessments highlight that, while Central India has fared better, parts of the South have suffered larger rainfall deficits, leaving yields vulnerable where rains were inadequate during pod filling. Any further weather disruptions during harvest—such as unseasonal rainfall events—could quickly translate into quality and quantity losses, supporting imported tur and pea demand.

In the UK, the 2026 growing season is largely concluded, but the legacy of a hot summer and mixed rainfall patterns is visible in below-target pea yields and variable quality. Short-term weather will mainly affect logistics rather than production, with market focus shifting to storage conditions and the risk of quality downgrades that may redirect volumes into feed channels.

Trading Outlook

• Importers & dal millers in India: Consider layering purchases of African-origin tur on price dips, as firm offers and crop uncertainty argue against waiting for significantly lower levels. Monitor domestic arrivals closely; a sharper-than-expected influx from new-crop regions could briefly soften replacement values.
• European and UK buyers: Current FCA Odesa and FOB London pea quotations offer relatively attractive cover given the smaller UK crop and low carry-in. Extending coverage into Q1–Q2 2027 for green and marrowfat peas, where available, may reduce exposure to later-season tightness.
• Producers in the Black Sea and UK: With spot prices subdued but fundamentals gradually tightening, disciplined selling—scaling out rather than front-loading sales—could capture potential upside if Indian import demand for pulses intensifies or if European buyers re-enter aggressively.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication

• Black Sea (Odesa, FCA): Yellow and green dried pea prices are expected to remain broadly stable around current levels over the next three days, with only minor fluctuations driven by freight and currency developments.
• UK (London, FOB): Green and marrowfat pea quotations are likely to trade in a narrow range in the very short term, with a slightly firmer bias if buyers seek to secure limited quality lots.
• India (tur market, CFR/port level): Imported African-origin tur is likely to stay firm near recent indications, while domestic tur values may remain under mild pressure until clearer signals emerge on kharif crop yields and harvest progress.