India’s coffee exports have surged to a record €1.97 billion (approx. $2.13 billion) in FY 2025–26, driven mainly by higher global prices and value-added products, even as global benchmarks have started easing on expectations of large crops in Brazil and Vietnam.
Record export earnings underscore India’s strengthening role in the global coffee trade, with Europe absorbing the bulk of shipments and robusta and value-added segments leading growth. The story is clearly price-led: export volumes grew modestly, but average realizations jumped in line with earlier global price spikes. At the same time, recent declines in international futures, improving weather in major origins and logistical risks in key shipping lanes are reshaping near‑term risk for Indian exporters and roasters. The market is transitioning from a tight, price‑spike phase to a high‑but‑softening price environment.
📈 Prices & Export Performance
India’s coffee export value rose 17% year‑on‑year to about €1.97 billion in FY 2025–26 (from roughly €1.68 billion), while export volumes increased only 4.65% to 407,000 tonnes from 388,000 tonnes. This implies an average price gain of around 17% per tonne, confirming that value growth has been overwhelmingly price‑driven rather than volume‑led.
Global benchmarks have recently turned softer after an extended rally. ICE arabica CFDs fell about 1.4% on April 2, 2026, with prices retreating from early‑year highs amid growing expectations of record Brazilian output and easing supply fears. On the London market, July 2026 robusta futures dropped about 2.4% to around $3,346/t on April 6, 2026 as long liquidation hit the market. This confirms that India’s record export year is being booked into a market moving from extreme tightness into a more balanced, slightly softer price phase.
| Coffee metric | FY 2024–25 | FY 2025–26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (EUR) | ≈€1.68 bn | ≈€1.97 bn | +17% |
| Export volume (tonnes) | 388,000 | 407,000 | +4.65% |
| India coffee production 2024–25 (tonnes) | 363,000 total (105,000 Arabica; 257,000 Robusta) | ||
🌍 Supply & Demand Landscape
India remains the world’s 7th largest coffee producer and 5th largest exporter, with a production base of 363,000 tonnes in 2024–25 supporting robust export flows. Stable output has allowed exporters to monetize strong international prices without significantly drawing down availability. Robusta dominates India’s crop and export profile, aligning well with persistent demand from Europe for blends, instant coffee and industrial uses.
Globally, supply risks that fueled the recent price spike are now giving way to a more comfortable outlook. Brazil’s 2026 crop is forecast at a record 66.2 million bags, up more than 17% year‑on‑year, on the back of favorable rains in key coffee regions. Vietnam is also exporting aggressively, with Q1 2026 shipments exceeding 577,000 tonnes and earning $2.71 billion, reinforcing the perception of ample robusta supply. Together, these developments are easing concerns about structural shortages and tempering the upside in global prices.
🚢 Trade Flows, Logistics & Regional Demand
Europe remains the anchor market for India’s coffee exports, with Italy, Germany, Russia, Belgium and Turkey as key buyers. Demand from these destinations has been steady, especially for robusta and value‑added products such as instant, roasted and ground, and specialty coffee. India’s long‑term export value has nearly doubled in four years despite relatively stable volumes, underscoring the role of higher‑value and differentiated products in driving growth.
By contrast, shipments to West Asia have been disrupted by elevated geopolitical tensions, leading to shipping delays, cargoes being held at safe ports and higher freight and insurance costs. To keep flows to Europe running, many exporters have shifted to the longer Cape of Good Hope route, increasing voyage times and freight bills but preserving market access. This routing flexibility has helped maintain export momentum despite regional instability and has partially insulated India’s coffee sector from the more severe trade disruptions seen in other commodities.
📊 Fundamentals & Value-Added Segment
The most powerful driver of India’s export performance has been the rise in unit values, supported by robust global prices and a strategic shift towards value‑added coffee. Instant coffee, roasted and ground products and specialty segments are all gaining share in the export mix, enhancing margins and reducing vulnerability to bulk green coffee price swings. Government measures to improve the ease of doing business and support processing investment have further strengthened this trend.
Globally, there is a parallel move towards deeper processing and branding, particularly in Vietnam, where new alliances are being launched to expand the value of processed coffee and enhance global positioning. For India, this means growing competition in the value‑added segment but also validation that downstream development is the right strategic direction. As world beverage price indices show signs of moderating with recovering supply, value‑added positioning becomes even more critical to sustain export earnings when raw coffee prices soften.
🌦️ Weather & Risk Outlook
Weather in the main global coffee belts is currently supportive of high production. Brazil has enjoyed beneficial rainfall in key arabica and robusta regions, underpinning record‑crop expectations. While extreme events such as heavy February floods in parts of Minas Gerais highlight ongoing climate risks, the 2026 crop outlook remains largely positive. For India, a stable domestic crop and the absence so far of major weather shocks help underpin export availability.
Key risks ahead include renewed geopolitical escalations affecting Red Sea and West Asian routes, further freight and insurance cost spikes, and potential demand rationing if consumer markets react adversely to still‑elevated retail prices. Conversely, any downward surprise in Brazilian or Vietnamese output—due to late‑season weather or pest pressures—could quickly tighten the balance again and re‑ignite price volatility.
📆 Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Months)
- Exporters in India: Use current high but softening price levels to lock in margins on forward sales, especially for robusta and instant coffee, while carefully managing freight and insurance exposure on West Asia routes.
- European roasters: Consider extending coverage modestly into Q3 2026, taking advantage of the latest futures correction, but avoid over‑hedging given the prospect of record Brazilian supply.
- Speculators: With market sentiment shifting from shortage to surplus, favor a cautiously bearish to range‑trading stance on robusta, while watching for weather‑ or logistics‑driven spikes as short‑covering opportunities.
- Indian value‑added players: Prioritize product differentiation and branded exports; the structural move to processed coffee is likely to outlast the current cyclical easing in green coffee prices.
📍 3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR terms)
Based on recent futures moves and the strong supply outlook in Brazil and Vietnam, short‑term price bias for global benchmarks over the next three trading days is mildly downward to sideways:
- ICE Arabica (EUR/t equivalent): Slight downside bias as the market digests record‑crop news and recent long liquidation.
- London Robusta (EUR/t): Consolidation to weaker, after the latest drop linked to long‑position unwinding and ample Vietnamese shipments.
- India export realizations (FOB, EUR/t): Likely to remain historically high but with limited further upside; modest softening is possible if global futures continue to ease, partly offset by the premium on value‑added products.
