Cumin production was estimated to be 5,4 – 5,5 million bags for the current season. But based on the arrival of the spice in the market, the production has exceeded the earlier estimation. Therefore, the current assessment based on the arrival has reached 6 to 6,5 million bags. Also, there are 2 million bags of carry-forward stock. Given this scenario and the low export demand, the spice price is unlikely to increase.
Current Scenario
In European countries, the demand for India’s IPM (Integrated Pest Management), i.e., organic cumin, is fulfilled only as per the demand. Due to the high price of IPM cumin, which was $2,90 per kg last year. The cost of IPM is said to have increased by $4,00 per kg this year. This price is looking very high for European buyers.
The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine for the last three months has also affected the import of cumin. As a result, European traders do not want to stock cumin now, mainly since the demand is less.
In the international market, the new crop from Turkey, Syria, Afghanistan, and Iran will come on the market in June-July.
The new crop of Syrian cumin was 12 to 13 thousand tonnes last year. However, the production is expected to be less this year.
Turkey’s cumin crop is now declining yearly, and Japan, Turkey, and Iran mainly buy Iran’s cumin crop.
The cumin crop of Afghanistan is less this year, and most of Afghanistan’s crops will be bought by Pakistan. Due to this, no effect of the cumin crop in all four countries will be visible in the international market.
On the other hand, despite the low export demand for cumin, it is reported that there is the export of four to five containers every day.
China made vast purchases of cumin last year. There has been very little purchase from them this year till now. Due to this, China’s demand may come out in the next ten days in a big way.
The export of Indian cumin has been very sluggish for the last three months. Currently, the price of Indian cumin is said to be $2,90 to 2,95 per kg in the international market. Indian cumin export is estimated to be 190 thousand to 200 thousand tonnes in the current year as against last year’s 245 thousand tonnes.
Cumin futures are currently running from $2,75 to $2,78 per kg. Therefore, it should be $2,57 per kg. But due to the active class of speculators in cumin, the possibility of this price decrease is less. However, there is no possibility of a further increase in cumin price.
Future
Due to the Bakhri Eid in July, there will be a demand for spice from Bangladesh and other countries. It will then help the price to move up for the short term. However, according to market experts, cumin prices will remain stable in the long term with no immediate rise.
In the next one and a half months, the price can increase to $0,26 – $0,32 per kg.
Price Trend
Cumin A Grade 99% Pure trading at $2,90 per kg FOB.
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