India’s Lentil Market Caught Between Firm Spot Prices and Looming Supply Wall

Domestic lentil prices in India are firming despite ample import flows and a heavy pipeline, but rising supply from new-crop arrivals and sizeable government stocks point to a softer bias over the next month.

India’s lentil market is in a classic late-season squeeze: spot prices are edging up in Delhi and key consuming centres even as a 22,293-tonne Canadian lentil vessel is due at Mundra on 28 March 2026 and new-crop harvest gains pace in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Processors and traders are deliberately running lean inventories ahead of April, wary of being caught by falling prices once fresh arrivals build and public buffer stocks are deployed if necessary. Global production estimates are above average and Canada continues to dominate India-bound flows, while broader Middle East shipping disruptions have lifted freight and insurance risk, adding volatility but not yet breaking import parity anchors. Seasonal demand from eastern India should cushion the downside, creating a market that is tight in the very short term but fundamentally leaning bearish into April.

📈 Prices & Spreads

On Friday, domestic lentils in Delhi gained modestly, trading around USD 71.0–71.3 per quintal, while Katni (Madhya Pradesh) held near USD 69.3–69.8 per quintal. Imported lentils remained at a clear discount: Canadian containers were quoted around USD 63.9–64.5 per quintal, with Australian origin close behind at USD 63.7–64.4 per quintal. At Mundra port, Canadian lentils traded near USD 60.5–60.8 per quintal, and Hazira saw slightly higher levels around USD 61.0–61.3 per quintal, easing marginally on the day.

Converted into EUR terms (approx. 1 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR), this places domestic Delhi values broadly around 66–67 EUR per quintal, versus roughly 56–60 EUR per quintal for Canadian imports at ports. Parallel indications from other origins show FOB lentil offers from China (small green, non-organic) around 1.17 EUR/kg and Canadian Eston green near 1.67 EUR/kg on recent trades, underscoring competitive export-side pricing into Asia and Europe.

Market / Product	Price (EUR)	Unit	Trend (w/w)
India, Delhi domestic lentils	≈ 66–67	per quintal	Firm, slight increase
India, Canadian lentils at Mundra	≈ 56–57	per quintal	Steady
India, Canadian lentils at Hazira	≈ 57–57.5	per quintal	Slightly weaker
Canada, Eston green lentils FOB	1.67	per kg	+0.02
China, small green lentils FOB (non-organic)	1.17	per kg	−0.01

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

The near-term supply outlook is dominated by India’s new-crop harvest. Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, the country’s key lentil producers, are moving into active harvesting, with arrivals set to accelerate through April. At the same time, India’s central government holds roughly 400,000 tonnes of buffer stocks, giving authorities ample capacity to cap any sharp price spikes via market interventions or procurement.

On the import side, Canada remains the primary supplier, with a vessel carrying over 22,000 tonnes of lentils now approaching Mundra. Additional Canadian and Australian shipments, combined with above-normal global production estimates, reinforce a structurally well-supplied global balance. Domestic demand from major consuming states in eastern India (Bihar, West Bengal, Assam) is seasonally strong and should provide a floor, but millers are buying strictly hand-to-mouth, and traders largely avoid building stocks ahead of expected softer prices.

📊 Fundamentals & Policy Factors

Current day-to-day price resilience in India owes more to timing and sentiment than to genuine scarcity. The market is navigating the tight window between low old-crop availability and full-scale new-crop arrivals. Import duty on lentils stands at 10%, and there is market chatter that the government could consider a modest duty hike during harvest to bolster farmer returns, though any adjustment is likely to be measured given consumer inflation sensitivities and the sizeable public buffer.

Currency is another important lever: the Indian rupee’s recent weakening to around INR 94.7 per USD increases the local cost of new import purchases, encouraging importers to defend current offer levels rather than liquidate aggressively. Globally, energy and freight markets are being disrupted by escalating conflict in the Gulf and persistent closure and risk premia around the Strait of Hormuz, with container and bulk shipping lines imposing war-risk and fuel surcharges and in some cases rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This is lifting voyage costs for lentils and other agri-bulk flows, particularly on Middle East-linked routes, although the impact on India-bound grain and pulse freight has so far been one of higher costs rather than outright supply loss.

🌦 Weather & Harvest Outlook

Weather conditions in India’s central and eastern plains have generally been favourable for rabi pulses into late March, supporting expectations for a decent lentil harvest in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. No major short-term adverse weather events have been flagged that would materially curb yields in the next one to two weeks, implying that the market’s base case of higher-than-usual production remains intact.

In Canada, where seeding decisions for the 2026/27 crop are being finalized, farmers are responding to the relatively stable FOB lentil pricing environment and firm import demand from South Asia. Assuming a normal spring, this should sustain comfortable export availability into the second half of 2026, adding another layer of medium-term supply security for import-dependent buyers.

📆 Short-Term Price Outlook (2–4 Weeks)

Over the next two to four weeks, India’s domestic lentil prices are likely to ease modestly as new-crop arrivals ramp up and market participants transition from defensive to more normal procurement patterns. A key technical and psychological support zone lies around USD 60–62 per quintal (approximately 56–58 EUR), particularly at ports and in import-parity-linked markets, where consumer and mill demand is expected to re-emerge more forcefully.

Significant downside appears limited by three factors: active government buffer management, strong seasonal consumption from eastern India, and elevated replacement costs for fresh imports given currency weakness and higher global freight rates. Upside risk stems mainly from potential logistical disruptions to inbound vessels should Middle East shipping tensions intensify further, though the diversified origin base and existing pipeline flows mean outright shortages remain unlikely under current scenarios.

🧭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Importers / Traders: Avoid aggressive spot buying at current elevated domestic levels; instead, stagger purchases towards the anticipated support zone around 56–58 EUR per quintal as new-crop arrivals build and basis levels soften.
• Dal mills / Processors: Maintain lean but secure inventories, focusing on short coverage and quality spreads between domestic and Canadian/Australian origins; be prepared to extend coverage if port prices test or dip below the identified support band.
• Producers (India): Consider forward sales on a scale-up basis into any weather- or freight-driven rallies, mindful that larger global supply and public buffer stocks cap the potential for sustained price spikes during this harvest window.
• European buyers: Monitor Middle East freight developments closely and diversify origin mix (Canada, China, Australia) where feasible to manage logistics risk and exploit occasional discounts versus India-focused routes.

📍 3-Day Directional Outlook (Indicative)

• India domestic (Delhi, Katni): Mildly softer to sideways in EUR terms as harvest pressure gradually increases, though intraday volatility remains possible.
• India ports (Mundra, Hazira): Mostly steady in EUR, with limited downside until the incoming Canadian vessel is fully discharged and distributed into inland markets.
• FOB Canada / China: Broadly stable to slightly firm in EUR, reflecting higher freight and fuel costs but still competitive versus India-domestic replacement values.