Jordan’s Failed Barley Tender Sets the Tone for Early‑2027 Import Pricing

Jordan’s latest tender for 120,000 tonnes of feed barley closed without a purchase, keeping global feed barley values under pressure while shifting market focus to the next January–February 2027 shipment round. Jordan’s repeated attempts to secure up to 120,000 tonnes of feed barley and the latest no-purchase result underline a still-wide bid–offer gap between importers’ price ideas and exporters’ expectations. A fresh tender for similar volume and January–February shipment, tentatively closing on October 7, will be watched closely as a benchmark for early‑2027 Black Sea and EU barley pricing. Against this backdrop, physical quotations in Germany and Ukraine remain soft but relatively stable, reflecting comfortable regional supply and stiff competition from other feed grains.

Prices

Domestic and export-origin feed barley prices in Europe and the Black Sea remain weak to sideways despite Jordan’s repeated demand signals. In Germany, feed-grade barley seeds EXW Drentwede are last quoted at 0.215 EUR/kg EXW (feed grade, 14% moisture), unchanged from the previous day but down from 0.225 EUR/kg one week earlier. In Ukraine, feed-grade barley seeds CPT Odesa are indicated at 0.128 EUR/kg CPT, also steady day-on-day but marginally below early-September levels, while FCA offers from Kyiv and Odesa, as well as FOB cattle-feed barley from Odesa, show a gently declining trend over the month.

Supply & Demand

Jordan remains a structurally import-dependent buyer of feed barley, sourcing predominantly from the Black Sea region due to its freight and price advantages. The latest international tender, seeking 120,000 tonnes of feed barley and closing on September 30, attracted five major global suppliers but concluded without a deal, suggesting offers were still above Jordan’s acceptable cost-and-freight ideas. Market participants now expect Jordan to re-enter quickly with another 120,000-tonne tender, with shipment windows spread across January–February 2027, effectively rolling import demand into the new year.

For exporters, especially in Ukraine and the EU, Jordan’s delayed purchase pushes nearby demand further out the curve but does not fundamentally alter the picture of comfortable regional feed barley availability. The failed tender reinforces the perception that importers are testing the downside in a market well supplied by both Black Sea origins and EU feed grains, with barley continuing to compete closely against feed wheat and maize in ration formulations.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the no-purchase outcome points to a still-fragile equilibrium between export logistics, risk premiums and buyers’ price resistance. Black Sea exporters face ongoing logistical and geopolitical risks, but ample availability and strong competition among trading houses are capping upside in FOB values. In the EU, a generally satisfactory barley harvest and good on-farm stocks in countries like Germany are contributing to the steady but slightly easing EXW quotations observed over September.

Weather-wise, conditions in key Black Sea barley export regions are seasonally less critical at this stage, as winter seeding decisions and moisture profiles for the 2027 crop become the next focus. For the short term, there is no strong weather-driven threat to exportable surpluses, meaning that price direction into Jordan’s next tender round will be driven more by freight, currency, and cross-commodity competition than by immediate crop stress.

Outlook & Trading Ideas

The upcoming Jordanian tender, expected around October 7 with January–February shipment, will be a key price discovery point for early‑2027 feed barley. A successful award at lower prices would confirm current bearish undertones, while another failure could signal a floor in exporters’ price tolerance and prompt some risk premium rebuilding.

• Importers (MENA/Gulf): Consider using Jordan’s next tender as a benchmark; partial pre-covering for Q1 2027 may be prudent if offers show only modest further downside versus current EU/Black Sea indications.
• Exporters (EU, Black Sea): Maintain competitive pricing into Jordan and similar destinations but avoid over-aggressive discounting ahead of the October tender, as the latest no-purchase suggests buyers may already be at or below global replacement values.
• Feed users in Europe: With EXW Germany drifting slightly lower and Black Sea FOB/CPT values soft, barley remains an attractive component in feed rations; consider extending cover modestly into early 2027 while monitoring Jordan’s tender outcome for directional cues.

3‑Day Directional View

• EU (Germany, EXW): Sideways to mildly weaker as local supply is comfortable and export demand remains cautious.
• Black Sea (Ukraine, FCA/FOB/CPT): Sideways with slight downward bias ahead of Jordan’s re-tender, as sellers position competitively for early‑2027 business.
• MENA import values: Stable to slightly softer indications expected, pending confirmation of traded levels in Jordan’s next tender round.