Jordan’s Feed Barley Tender Highlights Tight Competition, Supports Wheat Market

Jordan’s cancellation of its recent barley tender and the immediate launch of a new call for up to 120,000 t of feed barley underline robust regional feed demand and persistent reliance on Black Sea and EU origins. With only two trading houses actively bidding in both barley and wheat tenders, competition on the supply side appears concentrated, which tends to support price floors for feed grains, including wheat. The renewed barley tender, with shipment windows in late September and October, arrives as European and Black Sea wheat harvests add seasonal supply. However, Jordan’s strategy of maintaining ample feed grain coverage through regular tenders sends a signal of steady import demand into Q4 2026. For wheat, this contributes to a firmer tone in nearby and forward prices, especially for feed-quality origins competing directly with barley in feeding rations.

Prices

Recent spot indications show a modestly firmer tone in key wheat origins. In Germany, feed wheat EXW Drentwede has risen from about EUR 0.201/kg in late June to around EUR 0.221/kg on 23 July 2026, reflecting roughly a 10% gain over the period. Ukrainian wheat values (FCA/CPT/FOB) have eased slightly from early-July highs but remain competitive, with milling grades around EUR 0.18–0.20/kg and feed grades near EUR 0.17/kg.

French 11% protein wheat FOB Paris is broadly steady at about EUR 0.33/kg, having corrected from early-July peaks. U.S. FOB Gulf/CBOT-linked quotes are hovering near EUR 0.24/kg, indicating that Black Sea and EU origins continue to hold a freight-adjusted advantage into MENA destinations. Overall, the price structure points to a still narrow, but positive, wheat-to-barley spread for feed consumers.

Supply & Demand

Jordan remains structurally dependent on wheat and barley imports for feed, regularly using international tenders to secure forward coverage for its livestock sector. The latest move—cancelling a barley tender with limited participation and immediately reissuing a similar call for up to 120,000 t—highlights the government’s intent to capture more competitive offers while keeping stocks at comfortable levels. Shipments are targeted for the second half of September and throughout October, directly overlapping with new-crop wheat availability from the Black Sea and EU.

Market sources indicate that only Solaris and Bunge participated in both the cancelled barley tender and a wheat tender held the previous day. This narrow supplier base reduces effective competition and can support values for both barley and wheat delivered into Jordan and neighboring MENA markets. For global wheat, the story is less about physical tightness and more about how concentrated tender participation and steady demand from importers like Jordan underpin a price floor for feed-quality grades.

Fundamentals & Tender Dynamics

The new barley tender structure—multiple consignments of 50,000–60,000 t over several shipment windows—mirrors typical wheat tender patterns and gives Jordan flexibility to time purchases. For traders, the fact that the previous tender attracted only two participants suggests that risk appetite for longer-dated feed grain exposure into Q4 remains limited, possibly due to freight uncertainty or expectations of price volatility. By relaunching under similar volumes and periods, Jordan signals that its demand is not in doubt; rather, it is seeking better competition on price and terms.

For wheat, this is relevant in two ways. First, barley and feed wheat directly compete in rations, so any firmness in barley replacement costs tends to lend support to wheat, particularly lower-protein or downgraded lots. Second, the overlap in trading houses across barley and wheat tenders means price discovery in one tender often informs offer strategies in the other, tightening the correlation between barley c&f Aqaba and Black Sea/EU wheat FOB values.

Weather & Harvest Context

With shipments scheduled from mid-September onward, Jordan’s barley and wheat purchasing program is effectively tied to the northern hemisphere 2026 harvest outcome. Early reports from major exporters, notably the EU and Black Sea region, point to generally adequate production but with localized weather-related quality issues that may increase the share of wheat channeled into feed. This tends to cap feed wheat prices relative to milling grades while still keeping absolute levels sensitive to freight and tender demand.

In the Black Sea, variable rainfall and heat episodes have raised concerns about protein levels and test weights in some areas, reinforcing the role of origin and specification in price formation. For Jordan and similar importers, this environment favors continued diversification between barley and wheat depending on relative pricing, but the underlying message for Q4 remains one of sufficient physical availability at moderately firm price levels.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Importers in MENA: Use the current window of post-harvest liquidity to extend wheat and barley coverage into Q4 2026, but stagger purchases across tenders to capture any weather- or freight-driven dips.
• Producers in EU/Black Sea: Maintain a patient stance on feed wheat sales; concentrated demand from tenders like Jordan’s and limited competition among global traders are likely to keep a floor under export values.
• Feed compounders: Monitor the wheat–barley price spread closely; if barley tender prices firm further, switching incremental volumes toward competitively priced feed wheat may reduce ration costs.

3‑day directional outlook (EUR, indicative):

• EU (FOB France, 11% wheat): Slightly firm bias, supported by tender activity and steady export demand.
• Black Sea (FOB/CPT Ukraine, feed & milling wheat): Mostly sideways, with modest upside risk if freight tightens or if barley tender results print above expectations.
• Germany (EXW feed wheat): Mildly firmer tone, but near-term gains likely capped by ongoing harvest pressure.