Jordan Wheat Tender Failure Keeps Black Sea Exporters on the Defensive
Jordan bought no wheat in its Sept 15 tender. New tender around Sept 22 will test Black Sea and EU pricing as cash wheat values ease in Europe and Ukraine.
Prices
Recent cash indications show a modestly softer tone in Black Sea wheat, while EU values remain comparatively firm:
- Ukraine, Odesa FOB 11–12.5% protein: around EUR 0.135–0.147/kg, down roughly EUR 0.01–0.015/kg since late August.
- Ukraine, CPT Odesa feed/grade 2–3: about EUR 0.146–0.163/kg, also easing over the last two weeks.
- Germany, EXW feed wheat (Drentwede): broadly sideways to slightly higher, last at about EUR 0.241/kg on 14 September.
- France, FOB Paris 11% protein: holding near EUR 0.33/kg, little changed over the period.
This structure keeps Black Sea wheat at a clear discount to EU origins, but the failed Jordan tender suggests that even these levels were above the buyer’s target. The next tender will test how much further exporters are willing or able to trim margins.
Supply & Demand
For Jordan, milling wheat demand remains stable, with regular tenders of 100,000–120,000 tonnes designed to secure subsidised flour supplies. The lack of an award on 15 September indicates that the state buyer is using its comfortable pipeline and storage cover to resist paying current offer levels and to wait for greater price concessions from suppliers.
On the export side, Black Sea origins remain keen to place large volumes for Q4 shipment, but logistical and political risks are embedded in offers. Traders report that continued disruptions and risk premiums in the region are limiting the degree of price undercutting, even as nominal FOB and CPT values soften. European wheat, while competitive in quality, currently prices too high to dominate such price-sensitive tenders without a broader futures-led correction.
Fundamentals & Tender Signal
The 15 September tender outcome is fundamentally a pricing signal rather than a demand shock. Jordan’s decision not to buy, despite participation by three major trading houses, implies that offered values were still above the buyer’s internal benchmark. With a new tender expected to close on 22 September for second-half October and first-half November shipment, exporters must decide whether to cut offers or risk another no award.
If sellers sharpen prices, Black Sea values will likely lead the move, given their existing discount to EU wheat. Conversely, a second consecutive failure would underline that importers across the Middle East can afford to be patient, reinforcing downside pressure on global milling wheat benchmarks while putting a floor under internal prices in key exporting regions.
Short-Term Outlook & Trading Strategy
- For exporters: Consider modest price concessions into Jordan’s 22 September tender, especially from Black Sea origins, to avoid losing volume and to set a credible reference for other MENA buyers.
- For importers in the region: Jordan’s stance supports a wait-and-see strategy; nearby supply appears adequate, and another failed tender would likely reinforce downward price pressure.
- For EU producers: With FOB France still well above Black Sea offers, hedging a portion of Q4–Q1 sales on rallies remains prudent, particularly ahead of the tender outcome.
Over the next three trading days, expect a slightly softer to sideways tone in Black Sea export values in EUR, stable-to-firm EU quotes, and cautious CBOT pricing as the market waits to see how aggressively exporters will price into Jordan’s new wheat tender.