Kazakhstan Lentils Push Into Record Export Territory as Turkey Leads Demand

Kazakhstan’s lentil exports are on track for a new record in 2025/26, tightening regional balances but so far translating into only mildly supportive prices amid comfortable stocks and competition from Canada and China. Turkey remains the key demand engine, while rapidly growing Chinese interest is adding a new structural pull on Kazakh supply. The market is entering the final quarter of the marketing year with 84% of Kazakhstan’s projected exports already shipped by end‑May, leaving limited additional tonnage for spot buyers and heightening sensitivity to any supply or logistics disruptions. At the same time, benchmark FOB offers for Canadian and Chinese lentils in late July suggest a broadly steady to slightly firmer price environment in EUR terms. Import-dependent Turkey stays the dominant outlet for Kazakh origin, but China’s fast‑rising share signals a more diversified and competitive landscape for the coming seasons.

Prices

FOB offers in North America and China indicate a broadly stable lentil price complex in late July, with only marginal week‑on‑week changes. Converted to EUR, Canadian red lentils hover around the mid‑EUR 2/kg mark, while green types trade in the mid‑EUR 1/kg range, keeping the red–green premium elevated.

Relative stability in key FOB benchmarks reflects adequate global availability and the fact that much of Kazakhstan’s record export program has already been priced and executed. Basis levels into Turkey and nearby Mediterranean destinations, however, are under gentle upward pressure as importers seek to secure the remaining uncommitted volumes from Kazakhstan and rival origins.

Supply & Demand

Kazakhstan’s Grain Union has lifted its full‑season lentil export forecast to 470,000 tonnes for 2025/26, up 30,000 tonnes from its previous estimate, underscoring a stronger‑than‑expected export pace. Shipments in May reached 24,000 tonnes, 14% above April, despite the seasonally advanced stage of the marketing year.

Cumulative exports for September–May hit a record 394,900 tonnes, 47% above the same period last season and already 20% above the previous full‑year record set in 2024/25. By end‑May, about 84% of the projected annual export volume had left the country, leaving roughly 75,000 tonnes available for the remaining months, a relatively tight cushion for any additional demand or logistics issues.

Turkey is the overwhelmingly dominant buyer, taking 347,100 tonnes in the first nine months—almost 2.3 times more than a year earlier and accounting for around 88% of total Kazakh lentil exports. This concentration highlights Turkey’s pivotal role in price formation for Kazakh origin and suggests that any policy or demand shifts in Turkey would quickly reverberate through regional prices.

China is emerging as a second growth pillar. Purchases from Kazakhstan surged to 20,200 tonnes so far this season, up from just 1,000 tonnes in the entire previous marketing year, indicating a structural diversification of Kazakh export outlets. Smaller but significant flows go to Afghanistan (7,300 tonnes), Azerbaijan (3,500 tonnes) and Kyrgyzstan (1,500 tonnes), with minor volumes spread across a wide set of regional and European destinations, underpinning a broadening customer base.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Fundamentally, the record export pace signals strong competitiveness of Kazakh origin versus Canada, Russia and Australia into Turkey and parts of Asia. The fact that Turkey has scaled up purchases by more than double underlines robust consumption and processing demand, supported by lentils’ role in basic food and export‑oriented value chains.

At the same time, comfortable stocks in major exporters and steady Canadian and Chinese FOB offers cap upside for now. With most of Kazakhstan’s 2025/26 export program already executed by May, marginal supply for new spot business is limited, but not scarce enough to trigger a strong price spike while other origins can fill gaps.

Weather in Kazakhstan through July has been seasonally warm, with periods of heat and thunderstorms in key northern and central grain and pulse regions, but no extreme, widespread damage reported in the latest outlooks. This keeps the 2026 harvest prospects broadly intact for now, meaning that current tightness is more about logistics timing and export pace than about outright crop loss.

Outlook & Trading Strategy

Looking ahead into the final months of 2025/26 and the transition to the next marketing year, the lentil market is likely to remain supported but not explosive. Record Kazakh exports, robust Turkish import demand and growing Chinese offtake provide a solid fundamental floor, while abundant global competition and steady FOB benchmarks limit substantial rallies unless weather or policy shocks emerge.

• Producers (Kazakhstan and competing origins): Consider incremental sales on modest price strength, given that a large share of export potential has been realized and global supplies remain ample. Retain some flexibility in case of late‑season Turkish or Chinese buying spurts.
• Importers (especially in Turkey and MENA): Use current price stability to extend coverage into early next season, focusing on diversifying origins (Kazakhstan, Canada, Russia, China) to mitigate supplier concentration risk.
• Traders and processors: Monitor Turkey’s policy stance and Chinese buying patterns closely. Basis opportunities may emerge as Kazakh exportable surpluses dwindle and freight or logistics constraints periodically tighten nearby availability.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Black Sea / Kazakhstan export corridor: Slightly firmer bias in EUR terms as remaining uncommitted volumes tighten and Turkish demand stays active.
• Mediterranean (Turkey landed): Mostly steady with a mild upside risk on nearby positions, reflecting strong import pull but good access to multiple origins.
• EU (CIF main ports): Largely stable, with Kazakh and Canadian offers competing closely; any moves are expected to track freight and FX rather than fundamentals in the next few days.