Lentil Market Balances Soft Masoor Demand with Tight Supply Risks
June 2026 lentil market: softer Indian masoor prices, competitive Australian supply and stable import values point to short‑term softness, medium‑term support.
Prices & Spreads
In India, desi masoor is quoted around USD 71.65–71.91 per quintal, with Canadian masoor at USD 64.51–64.78 and Australian masoor at USD 63.98–64.25 per quintal on a port‑basis. Domestic quotations are slightly below the lentil MSP of roughly INR 6,600 per quintal for 2025/26, reflecting soft mill demand despite a tighter crop.
Global trade data for June 2026 show lentils changing hands around USD 1.8–2.2 per kg depending on origin and quality, keeping imported masoor competitive into South Asia. Chinese small green lentils (FOB Beijing) are currently offered around EUR 1.18–1.24/kg, slightly up versus early June, while Canadian greens (Eston/Laird) range near EUR 1.48–1.52/kg and Canadian red football lentils around EUR 2.43/kg FOB Ottawa (all converted to EUR).
Supply & Demand Drivers
In India, dal mills have scaled back masoor purchases, pressuring spot prices; however, traders highlight that stockist selling is limited at current levels and that inventory is not burdensome. Lower domestic production versus last year and prices lingering below MSP are discouraging farm‑gate liquidation and could tighten the pipeline once mill buying resumes in July.
On the export side, Australia is expected to deliver strong masoor and green lentil production in 2026/27, adding competitive offers into Asian tenders. Recent Australian crop outlooks point to increased lentil area and rising output, even as overall winter crop yields face weather‑related uncertainties. Canada remains the world’s largest exporter, and current trade statistics show continued solid shipments despite slightly easing FOB values.
Fundamentals & Weather
Fundamentally, the Indian masoor balance looks tighter year‑on‑year due to smaller domestic output and only moderate imports so far, which supports the notion that current price softness is demand‑driven rather than surplus‑driven. Government retail monitoring still shows masoor dal at elevated retail levels near INR 90/kg, indicating that consumer prices have not fully reflected the recent mandi softness.
Weather is a key risk for 2H 2026. In Australia, early winter conditions are generally adequate for pulses, but parts of the belt face a drier outlook that could cap yield potential later in the season. Any negative monsoon surprise in India would further tighten pulse balances and could quickly flip sentiment from mildly bearish to supportive for masoor and other lentils.
Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
Traders broadly expect masoor to trade steady to slightly weak in the very short term, with a bias toward gradual recovery if dal mill buying improves from July onward. The combination of sub‑MSP domestic prices, lower production and only modest stockist selling argues against a deep price correction despite competitive imports from Australia and Canada.
- Importers / Millers: Use current softness to secure partial Q3 coverage in masoor and red lentils, but stagger purchases to capture any additional dips from harvest pressure in exporting origins.
- Producers / Stockists: Avoid aggressive selling below MSP‑equivalent levels; consider incremental sales on any rallies triggered by renewed mill demand or weather scares.
- Traders: Favor range‑bound strategies in the near term, looking to accumulate on breaks and lighten exposure into July–August if Australian crop estimates remain strong.
3-Day Directional View (Indicative)
- India masoor (mandi, ex‑warehouse, MSP‑adj., in EUR): Mild downward bias, roughly stable in EUR terms given FX; limited further downside expected.
- FOB China small green lentils (EUR/kg): Around 1.18–1.24, likely flat to slightly firmer on steady export interest.
- FOB Canada lentils (EUR/kg): Greens near 1.48–1.52 and reds around 2.43, broadly stable with a slight soft tone amid strong Australian competition.