Lentil Market Steady-to-Soft as Indian Moong Weakness Offsets Weather Risk

Indian moong and moth markets are trading under pressure as fresh arrivals meet only selective mill demand, keeping lentil-complex sentiment soft despite emerging weather and sowing risks. Near-term downside appears limited by delayed kharif pulses sowing and monsoon uncertainty, but buyers are not yet motivated to build significant stocks. Lentil-adjacent pulse dynamics in India set the tone for the wider pulse complex. Summer moong arrivals in key producing states and satisfactory production in pockets like Uttar Pradesh have kept pipelines comfortable, capping any immediate rally. At the same time, official data show a sharp year‑on‑year drop in early kharif moong acreage and a generally weak monsoon start, raising the risk of tighter pulses availability later in the season. Internationally, lentil supply from major exporters such as Canada and Australia remains broadly adequate for now, while recent FOB offers for Chinese and Canadian lentils in EUR point to a mixed but overall range‑bound price environment.

Prices

Domestic Indian moong prices eased during the week as new crop arrivals increased. In Uttar Pradesh, raw moong values fell by roughly EUR 1.95 per quintal equivalent, with quality-based prices around EUR 63–82 per quintal after FX conversion. Moong dal prices, however, held better, indicating that processing margins and consumer demand for dal remain relatively resilient.

Converted from rupee quotations, moong dal chhilka traded in the vicinity of EUR 92–113 per quintal, while dal dhoya hovered near EUR 88–111 per quintal. Moth weakened in tandem, with raw moth edging down to roughly EUR 57 per quintal and moth dhoya steady around EUR 75–76 per quintal. Overall, this points to a soft raw pulse segment, with value-added splits comparatively better supported.

Supply & Demand

In India, all‑India kharif moong sowing had reached only about 0.69 million hectares by 12 June, sharply below 1.54 million hectares at the same stage last year. This indicates a clear delay in pulses planting, in line with broader government data showing kharif sowing down around 3.9% year on year in early June, with pulses acreage particularly weak. In Gujarat, kharif moong area has also lagged, while moth sowing has barely started beyond scattered fields.

Despite this negative acreage signal, near-term availability is comfortable because summer moong arrivals continue in key mandis and Uttar Pradesh reports satisfactory production and increased inflows. Buyers and dal mills therefore feel little urgency to build stocks and are purchasing hand-to-mouth. Globally, seeding in Western Canada is largely complete and official surveys indicate lentil area there remains historically elevated, even if slightly below prior peaks, pointing to ample export supply in the upcoming marketing year.

Fundamentals & Weather

The present market structure is characterised by good spot availability of moong and moth, selective mill demand, and weak farmer selling power due to lower-than-expected prices. This combination has kept raw pulse prices pressured, while dal values are comparatively steadier. Storage pipelines are adequately supplied, and there is no immediate physical shortage in key consuming centres.

However, weather introduces asymmetric upside risk. The southwest monsoon has started weak, with India recording a sizeable rainfall deficit versus the long-period average in June so far, and several analyses highlighting that below-normal monsoon could disproportionately hurt pulses output. If monsoon performance does not improve and kharif pulses sowing fails to catch up, the current softness in moong and moth is likely to give way to a tighter second-half balance and firmer prices across the broader lentil and pulse complex.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

For the coming weeks, the moong and moth market is expected to remain range-bound to slightly soft, anchored by ongoing arrivals and cautious demand. A stronger recovery in prices will likely depend on three triggers: a slowdown in arrivals, a more pronounced pick-up in dal offtake, and clearer bullish weather signals from kharif-producing regions. International lentil prices, particularly for Canadian origins, may stay capped by comfortable North American and Australian supply unless India steps up import demand later in the season.

• Importers / Traders: Use current softness in moong and lentil-adjacent pulses to secure partial forward coverage, but avoid overbuying until clearer monsoon and sowing data emerge.
• Dal mills: Continue requirement-based buying while monitoring monsoon progression; consider locking in spreads where raw moong is weak but dal demand is stable.
• Producers: Be cautious with immediate sales at current depressed moong and moth levels; retaining a portion of stocks may pay off if monsoon concerns translate into tighter supplies later.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• India – Moong & Moth (raw): Flat to slightly weaker as arrivals continue; modest downside room but major falls limited by sowing risks.
• FOB China small green lentils: Slightly firm bias after recent uptick in offers, but overall within a narrow range.
• FOB Canada green & red lentils: Mostly stable to mildly soft, reflecting comfortable supply and still cautious incremental buying interest.