Global lentils are in a buyer’s market. Canada and Australia lead supply, while China grows exports via discounts to Asia, Middle East and niche EU demand.
Prices
FOB Ottawa prices, converted to EUR, indicate a softening but broadly stable trend for Canadian lentils into early August 2026. Red football lentils trade around EUR 2.27/mt, slightly down from EUR 2.30 one week earlier, while Laird green and Eston green are at roughly EUR 1.37/mt and EUR 1.33/mt, both easing marginally week on week. Chinese small green lentils FOB Beijing are priced lower, at about EUR 1.15/mt for conventional and EUR 1.24/mt for organic, confirming China’s discount relative to Canadian green grades.
Supply & Demand
On the supply side, Canada remains the first‑tier exporter, consistently accounting for over 30% of global lentil exports and supplying core volumes to the EU, India and Bangladesh. Australia is expected to harvest a near‑record lentil crop of around 1.6 million tonnes in 2026/27, reinforcing export availability into South Asia and the Middle East. India acts as both the world’s largest consumer and a disruptive trader in red lentils, with policy and tariff moves capable of quickly swinging import demand.
From 2026 onward, global balance sheets look comfortable, with high Canadian and Australian stocks and relatively soft Indian domestic fundamentals underpinning the buyer’s market environment. China’s FOB offers are below Canadian equivalents, especially on small green types, but buyers still prioritize Canadian and Australian cargoes for strict grading, large kernel uniformity, and strong organic and traceability certification. Chinese shipments are therefore often treated as tactical supplements rather than primary supply by premium buyers.
Regionally, Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam) forms the core demand base for Chinese lentils, absorbing more than 40% of China’s small lentil exports. These markets focus on price–performance and tolerate wider grading spreads, making them ideal outlets for Chinese origin. Middle East Gulf countries (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran) imported about 470,000 tonnes of lentils in 2025, up roughly 18% year on year, driven by halal channels and staple consumption. Here, Chinese product from Xinjiang and Gansu is gaining traction via Dubai re‑export hubs, though it still competes directly with Ethiopia, Sudan and Australian pulses.
Fundamentals & China’s Position
Structurally ample supply has weakened Chinese exporters’ negotiating power. With buyers aware of large carry‑over stocks in Canada and Australia and India not under acute supply stress, procurement is increasingly price‑driven. Chinese exporters are forced to trade margin for volume, using discounts as the main lever to secure business. The combination of a softer renminbi and access to rail connections into Central and West Asia partially offsets weaker intrinsic product premiums.
In ASEAN, RCEP‑driven tariff reductions are an important medium‑term tailwind. Zero tariffs within the bloc by 2030 support expectations of steady 3–5% annual growth in Chinese lentil exports to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. In the Middle East, Chinese market share is currently in the low single digits but is projected to climb toward 10–12% on the back of competitive pricing, currency effects and improving logistics via Gulf trans‑shipment. Nevertheless, quality consistency and certification gaps must be addressed if China is to capture more value, not just volume.
In the EU, Western and Northern European processors still source high‑end green lentils primarily from Canada, making direct competition challenging for Chinese origin. Opportunities instead lie in organic small green lentils, sprouting‑grade beans and clearly labeled non‑GMO products. Gansu’s organic small green types (such as locally bred certified lines) illustrate how targeted EU organic certification can unlock small but high‑margin niches. Overall EU volume is likely to remain broadly flat to slightly growing, struggling to exceed 20,000–30,000 tonnes per year for Chinese origin under current conditions.
Weather & Regional Outlook (China‑focused)
Recent weather in China’s main lentil‑producing regions, particularly Northwest provinces such as Xinjiang and Gansu, has been generally favorable, with no widespread reports of yield‑threatening extremes in early August. Stable conditions support the existing narrative of comfortable global supply rather than creating new bullish catalysts. For buyers, this means weather‑driven upside price risk from Chinese fields remains limited in the very short term.
Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View
- Importers in Southeast Asia may continue to favor Chinese origin for low to mid‑grade small greens, taking advantage of the price discount to Canadian and Australian lots while supply remains ample.
- Gulf buyers seeking diversification from traditional suppliers can cautiously expand trial volumes of Chinese lentils, especially where rail–sea logistics and RMB weakness deliver landed cost savings.
- Chinese exporters should prioritize upgrading grading, cleaning and certification (organic, traceability, non‑GMO) to defend margins and access higher‑value EU and premium Middle East segments.
- End‑users with flexible origin requirements can remain patient on large coverage; the buyer’s market backdrop and high inventories suggest limited upside risk in the near term.
Over the next three trading days, EUR‑denominated FOB values on key markets are likely to remain broadly stable to slightly softer: Canadian red and green lentils are expected to trade sideways with a mild downward bias, while Chinese small green lentils should continue to price at a clear discount, with only minor day‑to‑day adjustments driven by FX and freight rather than fundamentals.