Lentils: Indian Prices Anchored Below MSP as New Crop Arrivals Build

Lentil prices are trading in a narrow, slightly soft range, with Indian wholesale values holding below MSP despite recent stockist support. Ample Canadian supply and rising domestic arrivals in India cap upside, while potential changes to India’s import duty remain the key bullish trigger.

Indian lentil markets are balancing fresh rabi arrivals against steady demand from key consuming states and a sizeable government buffer stock. Domestic and imported lentils in Delhi and eastern India are broadly stable, supported by stockist buying and expectations around possible duty increases later this season. Global supply is comfortable, with Canada coming off another strong crop, and export offers from Canada and China edging only modestly higher in recent days. Overall, the near‑term outlook is for sideways price action with a mild upward bias if Indian policy turns more protective.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Indian wholesale lentil prices were broadly unchanged on Tuesday. In Delhi, domestic lentils traded around $71.93–$72.20 per quintal, still below the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of roughly $74.59 per quintal, while Canadian-origin containers held near $64.47–$64.93 and Australian-origin at $63.94–$64.47. At Kandla port, Canadian lentils were quoted at $61.58–$61.89, and at Hazira at $61.89–$62.16, indicating a clear discount of imported product versus domestic masoor.

In Bihar’s key hub of Patna, domestic lentils held near $69.80 per quintal, also under MSP but supported by local consumption. Converting recent international offers to EUR, Canadian FOB Ottawa red football lentils are indicated around EUR 2.60/kg, with large green (Laird) at approximately EUR 1.77/kg and Eston green at EUR 1.67/kg. Chinese small green lentils are offered slightly lower at EUR 1.18–1.24/kg FOB Beijing, reflecting comfortable global availability and mild recent firming in Canadian values.

Product	Origin	Location / Basis	Latest Price (EUR)	1W Trend
Lentils dried, Red football	Canada	FOB Ottawa	2.60/kg	Slightly firmer
Lentils dried, Laird Green	Canada	FOB Ottawa	1.77/kg	Slightly firmer
Lentils dried, Eston Green	Canada	FOB Ottawa	1.67/kg	Slightly firmer
Lentils dried, small green (conv.)	China	FOB Beijing	1.18/kg	Stable
Lentils dried, small green (organic)	China	FOB Beijing	1.24/kg	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

On the domestic side in India, fresh lentil arrivals are building in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh as the rabi harvest progresses, and favorable weather is expected to accelerate inflows in the coming days. Dal mills remain cautious buyers, covering only immediate needs, which is consistent with a broader risk‑averse tone across the pulses complex. At the same time, consumption in Bihar, Bengal, and Assam is seasonally firm, providing a stable outlet for masoor dal despite prices lagging MSP.

The central government’s buffer stock, estimated at about 400,000 tonnes, offers downside protection against a sharp price slide if arrivals peak quickly. Globally, lentil production forecasts remain elevated, with Canada — the dominant exporter — coming off another strong crop and holding significant exportable surplus. This combination of rising Indian domestic supply, comfortable government stocks, and ample Canadian and Chinese export availability keeps the market well supplied and reduces the probability of a near‑term price spike.

📊 Fundamentals & Policy Watch

Fundamentally, the market is grappling with prices that are still below MSP even as government procurement has only just started and remains modest in scale. Limited MSP buying tempers farmer price support in producing states, while low‑duty imports — currently around 10% — continue to cap domestic prices by keeping imported Canadian and Australian lentils competitive at Indian ports and in major mandis.

The key upside risk for prices is a potential upward revision of India’s import duty on lentils, which policymakers have signalled as a possibility in the near term. Any such move would likely lift landed costs of imported masoor and green lentils, narrow the discount to domestic product, and encourage a shift in demand toward local supply. Until clear policy signals emerge, however, market participants are inclined to keep positions light, and trade flows from Canada and China should continue largely uninterrupted.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

Weather in India’s core lentil belt (Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh) is currently supportive of harvest and post‑harvest operations, with no major disruptions reported over the last few days. A generally dry pattern through late March would help accelerate arrivals into wholesale markets, adding incremental pressure to spot prices unless matched by stronger procurement or policy support.

In Canada, recent assessments confirm that the 2025 western Canadian lentil crop was significantly larger than the previous year, underpinning ample stocks as exporters look toward the next seeding campaign. While short‑term weather in the Canadian Prairies is more relevant for seeding intentions than immediate supply, the currently comfortable stock situation means weather risks need to be unusually severe to materially tighten the global balance in the very near term.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price direction (2–3 weeks): Sideways to slightly firmer. Rising arrivals and strong global supply argue for range‑bound trade, but any credible move to raise India’s import duty could trigger a short covering rally.
• For Indian buyers: Continue hand‑to‑mouth purchasing for nearby needs, but consider modest forward coverage before any official change in import duty, particularly for imported Canadian and Australian lots priced at a discount to domestic masoor.
• For exporters (Canada/China): Maintain competitive offers into India while monitoring policy headlines. Given India’s sizeable buffer and growing domestic crop, aggressive price hikes risk demand rationing or substitution within the pulses basket.
• For processors: Use current stability below MSP to secure raw material for near‑term crushing, but avoid heavy inventory build‑up until import policy becomes clearer.

🧭 3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• India, Delhi domestic masoor (ex‑mandi, EUR‑equivalent): Largely stable, with a slight downside bias if arrivals accelerate faster than procurement.
• FOB Ottawa, Canada (red & green lentils): Slightly firm tone around current levels (red near EUR 2.60/kg; greens EUR 1.67–1.77/kg) on steady export interest but capped by ample supply.
• FOB Beijing, China (small green lentils): Expected to remain broadly flat near EUR 1.18–1.24/kg amid stable demand and no major supply shocks.