Lentils Market: Gujarat Tur Sowing Shock Meets Soft Global Prices

Tur sowing in Gujarat has started the kharif season with an exceptionally deep setback, introducing upside risk for pulse and lentil prices later in the year even as current export offers remain soft. With acreage barely a fifth of last year’s level by late June and the monsoon still uneven, markets are increasingly sensitive to any further weather disappointment. Lentil and broader pulse markets are currently navigating a rare combination of weak spot prices and emerging supply concerns. In Gujarat, delayed and patchy monsoon rains have left tur sowing at a fraction of normal levels, while global lentil benchmarks show gentle downward pressure, especially from Canadian and Chinese FOB offers. Weather developments over the coming 2–3 weeks in western India will be pivotal: either enabling a rapid catch‑up in area or cementing a tighter medium‑term outlook that could reverse today’s mild price softness.

Prices

Export offers for lentils remain subdued in early July despite growing worries over Indian pulse supplies. Canadian FOB Ottawa values converted to EUR indicate a mild week‑on‑week softening:

Note: EUR conversions assume roughly 1 CAD ≈ 0.92 EUR and 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR where needed; numbers are indicative.

Indian domestic lentil (masur) benchmarks show significantly higher consumer‑level prices than export origins. For example, Mumbai APMC reported top traded prices around ₹7,500 per quintal on 3 July, equivalent to roughly 0.83–0.85 EUR/kg depending on FX, indicating room for imported supply to remain competitive if freight and duties are manageable.

Supply & Demand

The most striking near‑term development is the severe lag in tur sowing in Gujarat, a key kharif pulse. By 29 June, only about 5,000 hectares of tur had been sown versus 22,706 hectares at the same time last year – a drop of nearly 78%. Current coverage represents only about 22% of last season’s area and barely 1.95% of Gujarat’s three‑year average tur area of 256,000 hectares, underlining how early and fragile this campaign still is.

Spatially, sowing has been highly uneven: South Gujarat accounts for about 3,300 hectares (including 1,700 in Bharuch), central Gujarat roughly 1,200 hectares, and Saurashtra just 500 hectares, while most of North Gujarat remains virtually unsown apart from pockets in Sabarkantha. The key driver is weak rainfall outside Saurashtra and South Gujarat, reflecting the broader monsoon deficit that saw all‑India rainfall around 20% below normal up to early July before a partial recovery.

Global supply signals for lentils are more mixed. In Canada, newly released area data show a notable reduction in lentil seedings for 2026, with Saskatchewan – the core lentil province – reporting planted area around 3.4 million acres and an overall decline in national pulse acreage led by peas and lentils. Australia, by contrast, is forecast to harvest another very large, near‑record lentil crop in 2026, keeping forward supply comfortable despite regional weather risks.

Fundamentals

The sharp shortfall in Gujarat tur sowing comes at a sensitive time for India’s pulse balance sheet. Tur (pigeon pea) competes directly with imported and domestically produced lentils in many consumption channels. If the delayed monsoon does not allow a rapid recovery in area during July, India could face tighter supplies of tur later in the marketing year, prompting higher imports of other pulses, including lentils, to moderate prices.

At the same time, Canadian and Chinese export offers show that origin‑level lentil prices remain well below recent peaks, in line with softer global pulse markets and still‑adequate stocks. This contrast between weak current prices and emerging weather‑driven risk in India suggests that downside from here is limited unless the Indian monsoon turns decisively favourable and sowing catches up quickly.

Weather forecasts from India’s Meteorological Department and associated modelling centres point to a complex outlook. Official guidance suggests July rainfall for India as a whole is likely to be below normal (less than 94% of the long‑period average), yet early July data already show a strong wet spell that has trimmed the overall deficit. For Gujarat specifically, the coming 1–2 weeks of monsoon performance will be crucial: a sustained revival would allow farmers to accelerate tur sowing, while any renewed break could lock in a significantly smaller crop.

Weather Outlook (Key Regions)

• Western India (Gujarat and adjoining states): Monsoon conditions have revived across central India, and models indicate an active phase around 6–9 July, improving rain prospects in western parts as well. This should support accelerated kharif sowing, but cumulative deficits mean moisture stress could re‑emerge if follow‑up rains underperform later in July.
• Canadian Prairies (Saskatchewan/Alberta): Government crop reports for early June show generally adequate soil moisture for lentils, with some pockets of dryness. Short‑term forecasts do not indicate extreme heat or prolonged dryness, supporting current yield potential, though acreage cuts cap overall supply.

Market & Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 1–3 weeks): With Gujarat tur sowing still far behind normal, lentil prices are biased mildly upward on any further negative monsoon surprises. However, ample exportable supplies in Canada, China and Australia keep global benchmarks capped, leading to a broadly sideways trend with a modest bullish skew.
• Medium term (Q3–Q4 2026): If July rainfall allows a sharp catch‑up in Indian tur area, lentil import demand may be more moderate, limiting price gains. But if sowing remains structurally lower than last year, India’s pulse deficit could widen, supporting higher lentil prices from Q4 onward as importers secure coverage.
• Downside risks: A sustained improvement in Indian monsoon performance combined with favourable yields in Canada and a strong Australian harvest could push lentil prices marginally lower from current levels, particularly for green varieties.

Strategy Pointers

• Importers/Processors: Use current softness in Canadian and Chinese FOB values to extend coverage modestly into Q4 2026, focusing on red lentils and key green grades. Layer purchases to keep flexibility in case monsoon conditions improve and India’s demand remains contained.
• Producers/Exporters: Consider hedging a portion of expected production, but retain upside exposure. The combination of reduced Canadian acreage and potential Indian pulse tightness argues against aggressive forward selling at current levels.
• End‑users (Food industry/retail): Secure a baseline of lentil supply now, particularly for price‑sensitive segments, while monitoring Indian kharif sowing progress closely for signals of tighter markets later in the season.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• FOB Ottawa (Canada) – Red and Green Lentils: Stable to slightly firm in EUR terms as buyers react cautiously to Indian sowing news; large moves unlikely within three days.
• FOB North China Ports – Small Green Lentils: Mostly stable, with limited fresh demand; competition from Canadian offers caps any immediate upside.
• India (major mandis, masur): Slight upward bias in wholesale lentil prices as traders factor in tur sowing delays and monitor monsoon developments, though government policy signals could temper volatility.