Mango Prices Hold Firm as Vietnam FOB Leads, Thailand Weather Adds Risk

The mango market is currently being shaped less by exchange-style volatility and more by a steady but important tug-of-war between firm processed fruit offer levels, regional weather risk, and improving export-oriented demand across Southeast Asia. Current dried mango indications in the available dataset show a notably stable market through late February and mid-March 2026, with no week-on-week decline in the main quoted items. Vietnam-origin dried mango in Hanoi remains the premium reference point, with FOB offers at EUR 5.82/kg for slices/chunks and EUR 5.62/kg for chunk specifications, while Thailand-origin dried mango offered FCA Dordrecht is lower at EUR 4.52/kg. That spread suggests buyers are still paying up for Vietnam-origin product positioning and specification, while Thailand-origin material in Europe remains more competitively placed. On the supply side, the broader mango story in both Thailand and Vietnam is being influenced by active export development, weather variability, and strong regional fruit trade momentum. Vietnam continues to benefit from off-season supply windows and export market penetration, especially into China, while Thailand is entering a hotter weather phase with scattered thunderstorm risk in eastern fruit zones. For dried mango, these conditions matter because raw fruit availability, quality consistency, and drying performance all depend on orchard health and harvest timing. In the next few days, the market tone looks stable to slightly firmer rather than bearish: prices are not currently moving, but weather-linked supply uncertainty in Thailand and export pull from Vietnam reduce the room for discounting. Buyers may still find coverage, but the balance of risk is no longer clearly to the downside.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Mango dried, slices/chunks, 2–15 mm	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	EUR 5.82	0.0%	Firm
Mango dried, chunks, 2–3 cm, moisture 13–19%	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	EUR 5.62	0.0%	Firm
Mango dried, normal sugar, 8–10 mm	Thailand	Dordrecht	FCA	EUR 4.52	0.0%	Stable

• All listed mango offers were unchanged on 13 March 2026 versus the previous week.
• Vietnam-origin dried mango continues to command a premium of roughly EUR 1.10–1.30/kg over the Thailand-origin FCA Europe reference.
• The lack of price movement points to a balanced nearby market, but not a weak one.

🌍 Supply & Demand

Vietnam

• Vietnam remains structurally supportive for mango values because its off-season harvest window from September to March helps it supply export markets when competing availability is tighter.
• Vietnamese mangoes have recently dominated China-bound import flows, supported by competitive pricing and timing.
• Dong Thap, the country’s largest mango-producing province, is actively upgrading quality, export channels, and year-round supply management, which supports processed mango raw material availability over time.
• Vietnam’s broader fruit and vegetable export sector reached a record in 2025, reinforcing the view that export infrastructure and traceability systems are improving.

Thailand

• Thailand’s mango export backdrop is also constructive. South Korea has become a major destination for Thai mangoes, showing that regional demand for Thai fruit remains strong.
• Thai authorities have approved 2026 fruit price-management measures as total fruit output is projected to rise, indicating policymakers are closely watching supply concentration and farmgate pricing.
• For dried mango buyers in Europe, the Thailand-origin FCA Dordrecht offer reflects easier landed access, but current weather volatility in producing regions could still tighten replacement costs if fresh fruit quality is affected.

📊 Fundamentals

Indicator	Vietnam	Thailand	Market Meaning
Current processed offer trend	Unchanged, premium FOB Hanoi	Unchanged, lower FCA Europe	Stable nearby market with Vietnam premium intact
Export momentum	Strong, especially China and value-added channels	Supportive, especially South Korea and regional fruit demand	Demand base remains healthy
Seasonal position	Benefits from Sep–Mar off-season supply window	Entering hotter pre-harvest weather risk period	Vietnam better placed for near-term continuity
Price direction signal	Firm	Stable to slightly firm	Little evidence of discount pressure

• Price spread: Vietnam FOB offers remain clearly above Thailand-origin FCA Europe, implying either tighter raw material economics, stronger specification value, or firmer exporter confidence.
• Momentum: Since mid-February, prices have effectively moved sideways, but at elevated absolute levels for Vietnam-origin dried mango.
• Trade flow implication: Strong fresh export channels can indirectly support dried mango prices by competing for fruit supply, especially when quality fruit is limited.

☀️ Weather Outlook (Region Focus: TH, VN)

Thailand

• Thailand is forecast to remain very hot through 14–16 March 2026, with highs around 35–38°C nationally in the available forecast snapshot.
• In Thailand’s eastern region, which is important for fruit production, the official outlook indicates hot conditions with isolated to scattered thunderstorms during 11–17 March, with gust risk in some areas.
• For mangoes, this creates a mixed effect: heat can accelerate maturity and harvesting pace, but thunderstorms and gusty winds raise the risk of fruit drop, cosmetic damage, and uneven quality.
• For dried mango processors, that means raw fruit supply may remain available, but sorting losses and quality variability could increase.

Vietnam

• Vietnam’s near-term forecast is milder, around 25–27°C from 14–16 March 2026, with a little rain initially followed by more pleasant and partly sunny conditions.
• This is broadly favorable for harvest and post-harvest handling compared with Thailand’s hotter and stormier setup.
• For dried mango production, the Vietnam weather profile is supportive of steadier raw material flow and lower immediate weather stress.

📰 Recent Market Drivers

• Vietnam export expansion: Continued progress in official export channels, quality upgrades, and processing investment supports confidence in medium-term supply.
• China demand pull: Vietnam’s strong position in China’s mango import market reinforces demand-side support for raw fruit.
• Thailand export diversification: Thai mango export gains into South Korea highlight resilient demand for Thai fruit and help underpin farmgate values.
• Weather risk premium: Thailand’s hot and storm-prone eastern outlook is the clearest short-term bullish risk factor for dried mango replacement pricing.
• No immediate spot weakness: Flat weekly prices indicate sellers are not yet under pressure to reduce offers.

📆 Trading Outlook

• Buyers: Cover nearby needs normally, but avoid assuming softer offers are imminent. Vietnam FOB values look sticky.
• Importers: Monitor Thailand weather closely over the next 3–7 days; any orchard damage or harvest disruption could lift replacement indications.
• Processors and distributors: Vietnam-origin product currently offers the stronger continuity story, though at a premium.
• Speculative stance: There is no exchange-style speculative positioning for this niche market, so physical trade signals and weather are the dominant short-term indicators.
• Base case: Stable prices with a mild upward bias for premium specifications.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region / Reference	Current	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Bias
Vietnam FOB Hanoi – slices/chunks	EUR 5.82/kg	EUR 5.82/kg	EUR 5.83/kg	EUR 5.83/kg	Stable to slightly firmer
Vietnam FOB Hanoi – chunks	EUR 5.62/kg	EUR 5.62/kg	EUR 5.63/kg	EUR 5.63/kg	Stable to slightly firmer
Thailand-origin FCA Dordrecht	EUR 4.52/kg	EUR 4.52/kg	EUR 4.54/kg	EUR 4.55/kg	Stable with weather-risk premium

• Forecast basis: unchanged spot indications, supportive Vietnam weather, and hotter/thunderstorm-prone conditions in Thailand’s fruit belt.
• Main upside risk: Thailand weather disruption.
• Main downside risk: slower export orders or aggressive nearby seller coverage.