📉 Market Leader Steps Back, Prices Drop 📉
📍 The Turkish hazelnut market has entered a corrective phase, with the market leader announcing it has covered its needs for the season. This has led to a price decline, particularly for small-caliber kernels, which are now significantly cheaper than standard-sized hazelnuts (11-13 mm). Additionally, TMO stocks from the 2022 harvest are now on the market, further pressuring prices.
📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments
| Product | Price (€/kg, DDP Europe) | Change (1 Week) | Change (1 Year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organic Raw Kernels (11-13 mm) | 8.83 | -0.04% | +1.83% |
| Conventional Raw Kernels (11-13 mm) | 8.04 | +0.03% | +1.83% |
| Organic Roasted Kernels | 9.90 | -0.04% | +1.83% |
| Roasted Kernels (2-4 mm) | 6.93 | -0.28% | -2.50% |
| Roasted Kernels (0-2 mm) | 6.44 | -0.20% | -3.00% |
| Hazelnut Paste | 5.98 | -0.15% | -3.30% |
🔹 Key Developments:
✅ Market leader announces it is fully covered for the season, reducing demand pressure.
✅ Over-supply of small kernels leads to significant price drops.
✅ TMO stocks from 2022 now entering the market, creating additional downward price pressure.
✅ Conflicting reports on frost damage in lower-altitude orchards (< 400 m).
✅ Exchange rate stable, awaiting the next Turkish Central Bank policy meeting next week.
🌍 Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
🔹 Market Leader Steps Back
- The market leader has announced it is fully covered for this season.
- This led to a shift in supplier behavior, with some now accepting lower prices to clear stocks.
🔹 Small-Kernel Over-Supply Pressures Market
- Small kernels are significantly cheaper than 11-13 mm kernels, creating one of the largest price gaps seen in years.
- TMO’s older 2022 stock is now available, further pressuring prices for small-caliber kernels.
- Many buyers are now reluctant to take long positions on these products.
🔹 Uncertainty Over Frost Damage
- While frost and snow hit the Black Sea region last week, early reports contradict each other on whether damage has occurred in lower-altitude orchards.
- If damage reports escalate, prices could rebound quickly.
🔹 Market Segmentation Increasing
- While prices for small-caliber kernels and hazelnut paste are declining, whole natural and roasted kernels remain relatively stable.
- Buyers are cautious, hesitant to take positions until market direction is clearer.
🔮 Market Forecast (Next 3 Days)
📉 Expected Price Trends:
- 11-13 mm raw kernels: Likely stable, range: 8.00 – 8.10 €/kg.
- Small-caliber kernels & processed products: Likely to decline further, as demand remains weak.
- Potential short-term upside if frost speculation intensifies.
⛅ Weather Trend (Next 14 Days)
🇹🇷 Turkey – Black Sea Hazelnut Growing Regions
📍 Current:
❄️ Cold temperatures (-3°C to -10°C) have persisted, but frost damage remains uncertain.
🌡️ Daytime temperatures slowly rising, but nights remain cold.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):
- 🌡️ Temperatures to increase slightly, averaging 5-12°C.
- 🌧️ Rain expected after March 7, reducing frost risk.
- No extreme weather expected beyond mid-March.
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Hazelnut kernels
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FOB 8.35 €/kg
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Hazelnut kernels
roasted, meal
FOB 6.95 €/kg
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Hazelnut kernels
natural 11-13mm
FOB 7.62 €/kg
(from TR)
Hazelnut kernels
natural, 13-15mm
FOB 8.20 €/kg
(from TR)
📉 Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
📍 Global Hazelnut Ending Stocks (Last 4 Years):
| Season | Global Stocks (1000 MT) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 486 | – |
| 2022/23 | 450 | -36 |
| 2023/24 | 440 | -10 |
| 2024/25 (Projected) | 420 | -20 |
📍 Turkish Hazelnut Production & Forecast:
| Year | Production (1000 MT, in-shell) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 765 | – |
| 2023 | 740 | -3.3% |
| 2024 | 725 | -2.0% |
| 2025 (Forecast) | 700 – 740 | TBD |
🔹 Takeaways:
- Global stocks continue to decline, supporting long-term price stability.
- Turkey’s production trend remains slightly downward, reinforcing supply concerns.
🔍 Key Takeaways & Market Recommendations
📌 Summary:
✔️ Market leader withdrawal signals reduced short-term demand pressure.
✔️ Oversupply of small kernels and TMO stocks driving price declines.
✔️ Whole kernels remain firm, creating a segmented market.
✔️ Frost concerns could cause sudden price reversals.
📈 Strategic Outlook:
➡️ Short-term: Prices for small kernels and processed products could decline further.
➡️ Medium-term: If frost reports escalate, a price rebound is possible.
➡️ Long-term: Lower global stocks will keep the market fundamentally supported.
🔍 Actionable Insights:
💡 Buyers:
- Take advantage of lower small-kernel and paste prices.
- Monitor frost damage reports carefully before committing to larger purchases.
💡 Sellers:
- Holding whole kernels may be profitable, but small kernels are under pressure.
- TMO’s continued sales could keep prices depressed in the coming months.
📢 Need more insights? Contact us for custom pricing, market trends, and strategic buying recommendations!