Mexican Pecan Prices Hold Firm as China Duties Reshape Export Flows

Mexican FOB pecan prices are flat in mid-September, holding firm despite new Chinese antidumping duties that are forcing exporters to re-route volumes toward North America and other markets. Tight structural supply in North America and resilient kernel demand continue to underpin current levels rather than trigger any sharp correction. Mexico’s pecan market is entering the new export campaign with steady prices and a reconfigured trade map. China’s provisional antidumping tariffs on Mexican and U.S. pecans, in force since August 11, are sharply curbing the economics of shipments into Asia and pushing sellers to lean more heavily on the United States and other destinations. Against this backdrop, North American supply remains relatively tight, but a softer global demand tone is tempering upside, leaving spot FOB Mexico City offers broadly rangebound for now.

Prices

Latest indicated quotations for Mexico City (FOB, MX origin):

Domestic Mexican pecan prices are described as stable to slightly firm at the start of September, with a mild strengthening bias in organic kernels and sideways moves in non-organic halves, consistent with structurally tighter North American supply conditions. 

Supply & Demand

China has imposed steep provisional antidumping duties on pecans from Mexico and the United States, with reported deposit rates for Mexican product ranging roughly between the high teens and just above 50% of customs value, effective from August 11, 2026.  This materially erodes the competitiveness of Mexican shelled and in-shell pecans into China and is already prompting a redirection of export flows.

Mexico remains a key net exporter of shelled nuts, with Chihuahua and Coahuila dominating national shipments of shelled tree nuts, including pecans, according to recent customs-based data for fresh or dried nuts without shell.  With China now far less attractive as a destination, exporters are leaning more on U.S. buyers and other markets, while domestic processing demand provides a floor for higher-value kernels. However, broader Mexican fruit and vegetable exports show only marginal volume growth so far this year, signaling generally cautious global demand conditions. 

Fundamentals

Global pecan fundamentals are moderately tight. Industry analyses indicate that world pecan production for 2025/26 is only slightly below the prior season, with Mexico’s crop expected to be smaller than its 2024/25 harvest, partly offset by gains in the United States and South Africa.  Despite this, North American supply available to the open export market remains constrained by steady kernel demand, especially for high-spec, organic and carefully calibrated product.

Forward-looking agricultural investment reports anticipate firmer pecan prices in 2026, driven by constrained supply, the slow pace of orchard expansion and resilient consumption in snack and ingredient channels.  Short term, however, the combination of new Chinese duties and macro uncertainty is limiting buyers' willingness to chase offers higher, resulting in the present sideways price pattern in Mexico City FOB quotes.

Weather & Crop Outlook (MX)

Pecan production in Mexico is concentrated in the northern states, notably Chihuahua and Coahuila, which fall within the broader Norte de México region.  Recent climate guidance from Mexico’s National Water Commission (CONAGUA) highlights the influence of El Niño through at least April 2027, with potential shifts in rainfall patterns, more frequent cold fronts in winter and an elevated risk of heat waves and wildfires next spring. 

Earlier seasonal outlooks showed mid-level high-pressure systems and heat waves affecting northern Mexico, but also forecast the interaction of cold fronts and upper-level troughs that can bring localized heavy rainfall and storms to states such as Coahuila and neighboring areas.  For the coming days, no extreme, crop-threatening anomaly specific to the main pecan belt is flagged, but growers remain attentive to potential late-season storms around nut fill and harvest, as these could influence quality and picking windows rather than significantly changing total volumes.

Trading Outlook & 3-Day Price Indication (MX)

• For shellers and processors: Current FOB Mexico City levels for organic broken kernels and non-organic halves appear well supported by tight supply; consider covering near-term needs now rather than waiting for potential post-harvest weather or logistics disruptions.
• For exporters: Reassess destination mix in light of China’s duties and focus on U.S. and alternative markets where demand for premium kernels remains comparatively resilient, while being cautious on volume commitments into Asia.
• For buyers: Short-term downside in Mexican pecan prices looks limited; any brief dips triggered by currency or demand jitters may offer attractive entry points for Q4 coverage.

3-day directional outlook (FOB Mexico City, MX origin):

• Organic Pecan Kernels, Broken, FOB Mexico City (EUR): stable to slightly firm.
• Organic Pecan Halves (non-organic product), FOB Mexico City (EUR): broadly stable, tight bid-ask range.
• Overall MX pecan market tone: steady, with upside capped by Chinese tariffs but underpinned by constrained North American supply.