Mexican Pecans Hold Firm as Global Nut Prices Ease Slightly

Mexican pecan kernel prices are holding firm in late June, supported by constrained Mexican supply and steady export demand, even as some international nut markets show mild softening. Domestic FOB offers in Mexico City remain well above European wholesale reference levels, underlining a continued origin premium and tight availability for high‑quality kernels. After a strong 2025 harvest, Mexico’s 2025/26 pecan crop is projected smaller, while the U.S. crop is only modestly higher, keeping global supplies finely balanced rather than abundant. International tree‑nut benchmarks in Europe show only slight year‑on‑year declines, suggesting demand remains resilient despite high prices. In northern Mexico’s main pecan belt, showers and near‑normal temperatures dominate the short‑term outlook, supporting trees during the critical nut‑set and early filling phase. With no immediate weather or policy shock on the horizon, the market is likely to trade sideways to slightly firmer into July.

Prices

FOB Mexico City offers for Mexican pecan kernels remain elevated versus European benchmarks for imported product. Wholesale reference prices for pecans in the Netherlands in June are around 11.9 EUR/kg at wholesale level, down roughly 4% year‑on‑year, indicating mild softening in downstream markets but still historically high levels for consumers.

Converted to a kernel-equivalent basis and allowing for freight and margins, current Mexican origin offers signal a firm origin premium, consistent with industry expectations that pecan prices will trend higher in 2026 on constrained supplies.

Supply & Demand

Mexico is the world’s second‑largest pecan producer after the United States, with production heavily concentrated in Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango and Sonora. Recent industry projections show Mexico’s 2025/26 crop notably lower than the previous season (around 95,000 t vs 129,600 t), while the U.S. crop is only moderately higher, leaving global supply slightly tighter overall.

Trade data and sector analysis indicate that U.S. imports of Mexican pecans have remained steady despite years of drought pressure, highlighting the structural importance of Mexican product in North American blends. At the same time, European reference prices for pecans remain robust, suggesting that demand in key consuming markets is still solid even as some nuts see minor price relief.

Broader agro‑export flows show Mexico maintaining strong integration with U.S. and Canadian markets, particularly for high‑value horticultural products, which facilitates efficient pecan exports but also exposes growers to currency and policy shifts. With no significant new origins gaining share quickly, Mexican and U.S. supply fundamentals remain the dominant price drivers for 2026.

Fundamentals & Weather

Sector investment research points to tightening global pecan availability and projects higher average pecan prices in 2026 due to constrained supply and firm demand. This aligns with current offer levels in Mexico, where origin prices are materially above European wholesale benchmarks and show limited discounting for broken or organic lots.

Pecan production in northern Mexico depends heavily on adequate winter chill and sufficient heat accumulation and moisture during the growing season. Recent meteorological outlooks from Mexico’s national weather service (CONAGUA) indicate showers and locally heavy rains across Coahuila and parts of Chihuahua and Durango, with generally near‑normal temperatures for late June. This pattern supports soil moisture recovery after prolonged drought years, which is broadly positive for 2026 yield potential, although localized storms may complicate field operations.

At the macro level, a strengthening El Niño episode is expected to disturb global crop weather, but analysts currently anticipate that high world food inventories and diversified origins should limit extreme price spikes across many commodities. For pecans, this suggests that while supply risks are not negligible, the main bullish factor into 2026 remains structurally tight orchard output in Mexico and the U.S. rather than imminent weather catastrophe.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price direction (next 1–3 weeks): Sideways to slightly firmer for Mexican origin kernels, as buyers cover Q3 needs against limited spot offers and a smaller 2025/26 Mexican crop.
• For buyers (roasters, traders): Consider layering in coverage on price dips rather than waiting for significant corrections, given projected 2026 tightness and the current premium of origin over destination benchmarks.
• For Mexican growers/shellers: Maintaining a measured sales pace appears justified; current FOB levels reflect constrained supply, and forward fundamentals remain constructive, but watching FX and U.S. crop development is critical.
• For industrial users in Europe: Benchmarking contracts to a mix of Mexican and U.S. origins may help manage origin premiums while preserving quality continuity if Mexican availability tightens further.

3‑Day Regional Price & Weather Indication (MX)

• Northern Mexico (Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Sonora): Forecasts call for scattered showers and near‑normal to slightly above‑normal daytime highs, supporting orchards. Local farm‑gate and FOB pecan prices are expected to remain steady with a mild upward bias as exporters continue to source for international contracts.
• Central Mexico (incl. Mexico City FOB hub): Mild temperatures and occasional light rain keep logistics normal. Over the next three days, Mexico City kernel offers are likely to trade in a tight range, with any weakness limited by persistent external demand and no fresh supply shock.