Millet Market Steadies on Firm Indian Bajra Demand and Tight Farmer Selling

Bajra (pearl millet) prices in India and export millet values in the Black Sea and China are broadly steady in early June 2026, with firm underlying demand and limited farmer selling keeping downside in check. The current millet market is characterised by stable spot prices, balanced but not excessive arrivals and solid offtake from feed, food and rural consumption. In New Delhi, bajra around ₹2,175 per quintal is holding without visible pressure from new arrivals, while stockists refrain from aggressive selling. Export offers from Ukraine and China show flat to slightly firmer indications, helped by continued logistical risk in the Black Sea and firm niche demand. With monsoon-related uncertainties still ahead, the near‑term risk profile for millet looks skewed towards continued stability with a mild upside bias rather than a sharp correction.

Prices & Spreads

Domestic bajra in India is quoted near ₹2,175/q in wholesale markets, effectively unchanged in recent sessions as demand from consuming centres and feed users remains stable and arrivals are not heavy enough to weigh on prices. Converting at roughly ₹90 per EUR, this implies about 0.27 EUR/kg at the wholesale level.

Export-oriented millet prices in Ukraine and China are also stable over the last weeks. Bid–offer data indicate Ukrainian millet seeds around 0.25 EUR/kg FOB Odesa and inshell seeds 0.51–0.52 EUR/kg FCA, while Ukrainian kernels trade near 0.67 EUR/kg (conventional) and 1.20 EUR/kg (organic). Chinese hulled millet kernels are indicated about 0.78–0.87 EUR/kg FOB, with marginal week‑on‑week fluctuations.

Supply & Demand

In India, the key bajra market tone is underpinned by steady demand from feed manufacturers, food processors and rural households. Buyers are purchasing to immediate requirement rather than building large inventories, but availability is not excessive and arrivals remain moderate, preventing any significant downside pressure.

On the supply side, stockists and farmers are not engaging in aggressive selling at current levels, allowing prices to consolidate around recent norms. Globally, millet remains a small but strategic coarse grain: Ukrainian export flows are recovering but still constrained by logistics and security risks in the Black Sea, which supports FOB indications, while Chinese millet exports are oriented to niche food and birdseed demand, with no sign of oversupply in early June.

Fundamentals & Weather Outlook

Fundamentally, the near‑term balance in bajra appears neutral to mildly supportive. There is no sign yet of heavy old‑crop liquidation in India, and the domestic market consensus is that prices are “unlikely to fall significantly” unless fresh arrivals increase sharply or demand weakens. This view aligns with recent spot behaviour, where even minor local corrections have been quickly absorbed.

Looking ahead, the Southwest Monsoon has just started to advance across southern and northeastern India, but official forecasts point to a below‑normal season around 90–92% of the long‑period average for June–September. For millet, the key risks will centre on rainfall distribution in Rajasthan, Gujarat and other rainfed coarse cereal belts: localised deficits could cap production and tighten the 2026/27 balance, while well‑timed rains would support acreage and yields.

Market Outlook & Trading Ideas

With current evidence, the millet market is likely to remain broadly steady in the short term, with limited downside and a modest upside skew if monsoon concerns intensify or Black Sea logistics tighten again. Export parity between Indian, Ukrainian and Chinese origins looks relatively stable, so large arbitrage‑driven flows appear unlikely in the immediate horizon.

• Feed buyers / domestic users (India): Continue hand‑to‑mouth coverage but consider modest forward buying on dips, as structural demand and cautious selling limit downside below current mandi levels.
• Importers / birdseed and food packers (EU, MENA): Diversify between Ukrainian and Chinese origins; current Ukrainian FCA/FOB levels are attractive but monitor freight and security premiums in the Black Sea.
• Producers and stockists (India): Maintain a patient selling strategy; unless monsoon prospects improve markedly and arrivals accelerate, holding some inventory looks justified given the low probability of a sharp price break.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• India bajra wholesale (New Delhi): Stable around ≈0.27 EUR/kg; trading range expected ±2%.
• Ukraine FOB/FCA millet (Odesa): Flat at 0.25 EUR/kg (seeds, FOB) and 0.51–0.67 EUR/kg (inshell/kernels, FCA); no major moves expected.
• China FOB millet kernels (Beijing/Tianjin): Stable to slightly firm around 0.78–0.87 EUR/kg, supported by niche demand and steady export interest.