Mung Beans: Global Tightness Meets Chinese Oversupply, Keeping Prices Range-Bound

Mung bean prices are weakly stable and range-bound: global supply is tighter due to India’s poor monsoon, but China’s production recovery and export competition cap any major rally. Exporters in China rely more on organic premiums and order quality than on outright price gains. Global buyers face a mixed picture. Weather-hit production in India and Bangladesh plus restocking in Turkey, the Middle East and parts of Africa underpin a clear floor under international prices. At the same time, China’s acreage and yields have rebounded for 2025/26 and are set to increase again in 2026, keeping domestic supply comfortable and FOB Beijing values under mild pressure. Trade flows are complicated by Myanmar and Turkey acting as re‑export hubs into China, further squeezing Chinese exporters on volume and margins.

Prices

Chinese organic mung beans are quoted around 1.50–1.53 EUR/kg FOB, near the upper end of the market, while conventional 3.8 mm up grades hover near 1.42 EUR/kg, both slightly below early‑August levels, confirming a softening but overall sideways trend. Internationally, CIF Turkey indications around 1,060–1,100 USD/ton (approx. 0.97–1.00 EUR/kg at current FX) place global trade in a low but stable band, with downside limited by supply concerns in South Asia and demand from sprouting and food industries.

Supply & Demand

Global green mung bean output is now expected around 115 million tons, down from earlier estimates near 117 million tons, as India and Bangladesh suffer from a late, weaker southwest monsoon and moisture stress in key pulse belts. Recent assessments highlight below‑normal August rainfall and uneven distribution across India’s rain‑fed regions, with pulses among the most exposed crops, pointing to reduced yields and tighter export availability. In contrast, China’s 2025/26 mung bean acreage, yields and total production have broadly recovered, with 2026 new crop again trending higher. This creates a ‘tight outside, loose at home’ structure: international importers (notably Turkey, Middle East and parts of Africa) are in a restocking mode, while China faces relatively ample domestic supplies and intensifying export competition from Myanmar and Turkey acting as re‑export hubs.

Fundamentals

• Global balance: Weather‑driven cuts in India/Bangladesh underpin a structurally tighter global mung bean balance, but not enough to trigger a sustained bull run given China’s supply recovery.
• China supply: Consecutive production recovery in 2025/26 and expected growth in 2026 keep domestic inventories comfortable, pressuring local prices and encouraging aggressive export offers.
• Trade flows: Anti‑circumvention actions and tariff measures have diverted flows via Myanmar and Turkey, which now re‑export into China and compete with Chinese origin in some destinations, eroding China’s volume share.
• Price structure: Market participants characterize the current regime as ‘global tightness, Chinese selling pressure’—prices are stuck in a narrow corridor with a firm floor but little headroom.
• Premium segment: Chinese organic and high‑spec lots command a meaningful premium over bulk grades; exporters increasingly focus on certification, traceability and consistent quality rather than expecting higher flat prices.

Weather & Regional Outlook

In India, official and independent assessments for late August 2026 confirm below‑normal and highly uneven monsoon rainfall, especially across key rain‑fed pulse regions, reinforcing expectations of a smaller mung bean and pulse harvest and sustained import demand in the coming months. In China’s main bean‑producing areas, including North China and parts of the northeast, late‑August conditions are shifting from scattered showers to drier, warmer weather, reducing short‑term yield risk for the maturing 2026 crop and supporting the view of ample domestic supply.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• Chinese exporters: Use current range‑bound levels to lock in forward contracts on organic and premium mung beans; focus on value‑added services and certification to defend margins rather than waiting for a price spike.
• Importers (Turkey, Middle East, Africa): Consider staggered coverage: global supply risks from India argue for maintaining comfortable stocks, but Chinese oversupply and soft FOB Beijing argue against panic buying.
• Industrial users (sprouting, processing): Fix a portion of Q4 and early‑2027 needs now while basis levels are stable; keep some flexibility in case China’s new crop comes in even larger than expected.
• Speculative participants: The current ‘floor‑but‑no‑ceiling’ setup favors range trading; upside is likely capped unless India’s monsoon deteriorates further or logistics disruptions emerge.

3-Day Price Direction (EUR, indication)

• CN FOB Beijing – mung beans (organic & conventional): Slight downward to sideways bias as new‑crop pressure builds and exporters compete for orders.
• CIF Turkey – mung beans: Stable with a mild upward risk premium on tight non‑Chinese origins, but still anchored by competitive Chinese offers.
• Other Chinese beans (kidney, adzuki): Mildly soft tone in FOB terms following mung beans, with no immediate catalyst for a sharp move either way.