Mustard Seeds: Firm Oil Market Supports Seed Prices as Monsoon Starts

Mustard oil prices in Jaipur are holding firm on steady domestic demand and limited farmer selling, providing a solid floor to mustard seed values in early June 2026. Despite rising Indian rapeseed-mustard production, nearby downside in seeds looks contained as crushers bid to secure raw material while pulses like chana and tuvar trade softer. Physical markets in Rajasthan and FOB offers from New Delhi indicate a mildly firmer tone in mustard seeds, with most grades edging higher over the past three weeks. Record Indian rapeseed-mustard output and an early but irregular monsoon start point to comfortable medium-term supplies, yet current tight arrivals and healthy oil demand are supporting spot prices. Traders should watch the pace of monsoon progress over Rajasthan and crusher margins, as these will determine whether current firmness extends into late June.

Prices & Recent Moves

In Jaipur, mustard oil remains firm around USD 154.29 per quintal (≈ EUR 142/qtl at ~0.92 EUR/USD), with traders citing steady consumer and institutional demand alongside limited selling pressure from stockists. This contrasts with softer sentiment in pulses, where chana and tuvar have eased on weak dal mill buying, underlining the relative strength of the oilseed complex versus protein crops.

Indian mustard seed prices in major mandis are clustered in the INR 6,900–7,100/qtl range (≈ EUR 76–79/qtl), broadly in line with the national average near INR 6,937/qtl and Jaipur quotes around INR 6,850–7,020/qtl in recent sessions. On the export side, New Delhi FOB offers in early June show a modest but consistent uptick: yellow bold sortex around EUR 1.00/kg and brown bold around EUR 0.72/kg, both up roughly EUR 0.01–0.02/kg since mid-May, with similar moves in FCA quotes.

Supply & Demand Drivers

On the demand side, mustard oil consumption in northern India remains solid, supported by food service and household use, which is helping crushers maintain bids for seed even as alternative pulses like chana and tuvar see weaker mill buying. The firmness in oil and relative softness in pulses underscore a rotation toward edible oils within the food basket in early June.

Supply fundamentals, however, are generally comfortable. India’s rapeseed-mustard production for 2025–26 is projected at record or near-record levels above 130 lakh tonnes, following several years of acreage expansion and improved yields. This expanding crop means that, structurally, domestic availability is ample, and any sustained rally in mustard seeds will likely require either a weather shock, policy move, or a meaningful global oilseed price surge.

Fundamentals & Weather Outlook

In Rajasthan and other key mustard belts, pre-monsoon showers and western disturbance activity have brought below-normal temperatures and intermittent rain since the start of June, easing immediate moisture stress. While the all-India monsoon onset has occurred, progress into northwestern India, including Rajasthan, is expected to be somewhat uneven, and seasonal forecasts still lean towards a slightly below-normal overall monsoon.

For mustard, which is primarily a rabi crop, the June weather story is more about soil moisture recharge for the coming season rather than yield for the current harvest, which is already in the pipeline. Adequate but not excessive rains over the next 1–2 months would reinforce the current comfortable production outlook; conversely, a pronounced shortfall in northwest monsoon rains could begin to shift expectations for the next crop and lend additional support to seed prices later in the year.

Trading & Risk Outlook

With mustard oil in Jaipur holding firm on steady demand and limited selling, nearby mustard seed values appear supported despite large national supplies. Traders widely expect this support to persist as long as oil demand remains resilient and farmer arrivals stay moderate, whereas chana and tuvar are more vulnerable to further softness due to weak dal mill buying.

• Short-term (next 1–2 weeks): Bias moderately firm to sideways for mustard seeds, anchored by strong oil prices and constrained selling. Opportunistic dips may be limited unless monsoon progress triggers broad-based liquidation in agri markets.
• Crushers & refiners: Consider covering a portion of near-term seed needs at current New Delhi FOB/FCA levels, as margins are supported by firm retail oil prices. Avoid aggressive forward coverage given record production and potential for later seasonal pressure.
• Exporters: The recent EUR 0.01–0.02/kg rise in seed offers still leaves Indian mustard competitive in many destinations. Focus on yellow bold and micro grades, where price strength has been orderly rather than speculative.
• Importing buyers: For near-term deliveries, stagger purchases rather than waiting for a significant correction, as domestic fundamentals do not currently signal sharp downside. Reassess in July based on monsoon distribution and any policy developments.

3-Day Price Indication (Directional)

Given the current firm mustard oil market in Jaipur, steady national mandi prices near INR 6,900–7,100/qtl, and marginal increases in New Delhi export offers, the short-term outlook for mustard seeds over the next three trading days is:

• Jaipur physical mustard seeds: Slightly firm to stable in EUR terms, tracking a narrow INR band with an upward bias if arrivals stay light.
• New Delhi mustard seed FOB (yellow and brown grades): Stable to marginally higher, with potential EUR 0.01/kg fluctuations as exporters test buying interest at higher levels.
• Mustard oil Jaipur: Stable with a firm undertone; any further strength in oil will reinforce the floor under seed prices.