Around January and February 2022, India will start harvesting the new cashew crops. It is estimated India will harvest about 650,000 MT of the crop. The next in line for harvesting is Vietnam. They will harvest the new crop from February/March, and so will Cambodia during the same time. The production is expected to be about 450,000 MT for Vietnam, while 1,000,000 tons for Cambodia.
This figure can easily be translated into the fact that the market will have over 2 million tons of RCN in abundance within four to five months.
Future Trend
During the last 12 to 18 months, the demand for the kernel was good. If the demand remains the same, the prices in the market will get support and be in an appreciative mode.
Furthermore, with COVID-19 lockdown restrictions being lifted up and the markets opening up, the export of cashew will be increasing in the future.
Earlier the COVID-19 restrictions caused labor issues. The shortage of laborers for unloading the shipping containers led to ships queuing outside or in the ports, leading to container shortage increased freight rates.
Experts say the disruption and high freight rates will continue during the first quarter of 2022 but will gradually ease, increasing the product’s export demand.
The lack of export demand and increased freight rate led buyers to remain inactive in the spot markets. The exporters are now, however, inquiring about the prices and getting quotations for shipments of March/April 2022 and onward.
Experts say the cashew market can go into a slump for a few weeks or a month before it picks up as the new crops will hit the market with an increase in export demand.
However, it is early to predict how the market will fare in the coming year with the new crops. As of now, there has been no news of any crop damage or an infestation. However, the total yield of the crop is still to be verified. It can happen after the harvesting completes earlier next year.
Price
W240
| Date | Price |
| November 29 | $8,77 per kg FOB |
| November 16 | $8,72 per kg FOB |
| November 9 | $8,66 per kg FOB |
The Indian Cashew market had been stable and appreciative for November. Experts have described this trend as good demand among the corporate houses for the dry fruit as a gift item for the festive season.
Prediction
There can be a restriction on importing cashews in Europe since there are reports of COVID-19 surge, which can result in another lockdown for weeks. The increase of freight prices for shipping from Vietnam to Europe and the US can become the biggest concern for the traders.
With new crops getting into the market, it is important to note how things will fare in the coming days. Since there are reports of Vietnam having 500,000 mt RCN in their warehouse, which is in the hold of financially strong companies, small packers are moving away from buying the kernels at higher rates.
India is expected to increase its production and start exporting more of the crop, given the domestic demand of a strong post-COVID situation and easing of the lockdown restrictions.
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